Beware of Cyclone Keila – Special Coverage!

A Special coverage from Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP) regarding this cyclone is over.

  • Cyclone ARB 01 has formed in the Arabian sea

  • Landfall in Gujarat likely

Background

Cyclone ARB 01 is the first tropical storm of 2011 North Indian Ocean cyclone season and the second tropical depression of this Ocean after depression BOB 01. 

The last two major cyclones in Pakistan were Cyclone Onil 2004 and Cyclone Yemyin 2007. Cyclone Phet in 2010 was a depression when it came to Pakistan. Onil killed 9 people in Karachi with 40 mph winds and 32 mm rainfall, However 92 mm rainfall lashed Hyderabad that caused the entire drainage system to collaspe. Yemyin killed 200 people in Karachi with 70 mph winds and 110 mm rainfall, it made landfall near Gwadar. You can reach these previous cyclone articles that PWP made in March, April and May;

Updates regarding ARB 01

Weak cyclonic storm ARB 01 near Gujarat.
 

All the updates will be published below;

(Update 7:00 pm June 11)-follow new article

The first tropical cyclone of North Indian Ocean has formed today. Cyclone ARB 01 is a weak cyclonic storm, it has winds upto 40 mph. It is moving in North Western direction in about 05 knots since 6 hours. Cyclone ARB 01 is 722 km south-east of Karachi.

Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP) had predicted a cyclone from May 23 in the Arabian sea and today its long-range forecast came true. 

(Update 1:00 pm June 11)

“This low pressure should be the king of all the weather systems”

Reason? Well, again according to latest forecast the well-marked low has started deepening once again and is slowly slowly moving in a NW direction towards Gujarat coast and has started leaving Mumbai but very heavy rainfall is falling in Mumbai and should stop tonight. The lastest images also indicate that the low is more organised than few hours ago.

According to GFS, the low will gain depression/ weak cyclone status near Gujarat and Sindh coast and cause heavy rainfall in Sindh coast with strong winds. But according to BBC, the low will just remain stationary near Mumbai and will fizzle out in 3 to 4 days. JTWC does not rule out the possibility of cyclone in the Arabian sea during the 12 to 24 hours. Stay tune!

(Update 9:30 pm June 11)

Chances of formation of tropical cyclone in the Arabian sea are now extremely low. The low will fizzle out in 24 hours according to some forecasting models. But JTWC still maintains there “high” chances of cyclone in next 12 to 24 hours.

PWP request its readers that forecasting a cyclone is very hard. They should expect these types of errors in the future too regarding cyclones. The forecast of Pak Met, JTWC and many international weather forecasters have also forecasted the samething.

(Update 11:42 pm June 10)

In the continuation of  previous update, the marked low has started moving towards coastal Gujarat in a NW direction. The system is leaving the coast of Mumbai to head towards Gujarat.

(Update 6:30 pm June 10)

“ARB 01 is once again near Mumbai – Where all this started”

The system will once again start its journey from Mumbai coast on the night of June 11 or the morning ot June 12 and move towards coastal Gujarat from here it will move a little towards Sindh coast that is NW but quickly move in a SW direction and dissipate near Northern Oman. The system could reach depression to deep depression status.

Under this influence heavy to very heavy rainfall with strong winds likely over western Indian coast, while light rainfall with fast winds over some parts of south eastern Sindh while drizzle in Karachi from June 13 till June 15. This forecast could change in coming days again! stay tune

(Update 2:00 pm June 10)

“Every one is shocked by ARB 01”

The depression has unexpectedly moved eastwards towards Mumbai, westerly trough and dry over North is causing the storm to move ENE. Chances of formation of cyclone is extremely poor, the system could fizzle out near Mumbai during the next 24 hours. But there are also some chances that once these factores die down, the tropical low will move towards Sindh bringing some showers along with fast winds and the low will move in the sea where it will dissipate, its remnants will bring drizzle to northern Oman. In the end, I would say it again, that these are just forecast could change in matter of mintues.

Forecasting a tropical cyclone is not easy. No body expected Hurricane Katrina to become the dangerous cyclone in the North Atlantic Ocean, no body expected Cyclone Gonu to become a super cyclone and no body expected Phet to hit Oman. There had been some strong cyclones in the Arabian sea that caused flooding in Karachi during the year 1985, 1992, 1998, 1999, 2001, 2004, 2007 and 2010.

A new update will be issued when necessary. Stay tune! 

(Update 10:30 am June 10)

“Rainiy activity in Sindh and Makran coast not confirmed yet! “

There are high chances of formation of a tropical storm (cyclone) during the next 24 hours, the wind shear is low and sea temperatures are high. But the problem that occurred yesterday (dry air in the North) has caused the depression to move in a east north east direction (ENE) towards Mumbai at 02 knot. As of now the system is 150 km away west south west of Mumbai and is likely to move in that direction for some hours.

After some hours or even 24 hours, those dry winds will be replaced by moist and humid air and the weather system will start moving towards North-western direction. According to many weather forecast models, the expected cyclone is likely to gain intensity near Sindh after crashing into Makran coast or Iran.

(Update 6:00 pm June 9)

“A one day delay – But forecast remains same!”

The depression in the Arabian sea will take another 24 to 36 hours to become a tropical cyclone. The wind shear is very low and sea temperatures are very high, but the problem is dry air in the North that is blocking the storm to reach cyclonic status. But on June 10 or June 11 the depression is extremely likely to become a cyclone and head towards Pakistan. The cyclone will move in a north western direction and hit the Iranian coast on June 15 as a weak depression. 

Under the influence of this cyclone heavy to very heavy rainfall with strong winds likely all over the coast of Pakistan from June 11 till June 14. The cyclone could intensify further near Karachi.

(Update 8:00 am June 9)

The depression ARB 01 is likely to intensify into a tropical storm during the next 12 to 24 hours. The wind shear is very low and the sea temperatures are above than normal. The system is near the Gujarat coast and is moving towards North western direction at 1 knot. Keila will reach Sindh coast by June 10 night and could intensify further on June 11.

Precautions needed

“WARNING The sea will be mildy rough from Sunday (June 12) afternoon, fishermen should take care while fishing, no threat likely yet”.

Following precautions must be taken;

  • Before the storm, Make sure your windows are protected and your home is secured.
  • Store necessary food items and emergency equipments.
  • Keep a keen observation on the latest movement of the storm
  • During the storm, Stay inside and away from windows, skylights and glass doors. Do not and I repeat do not go outside the house to enjoy the lashing winds.
  • If flooding threatens your home, turn off electricity at the main breaker.
  • If you lose power, turn off major appliances such as the air conditioner and water heater to reduce damage.
  •  If the eye of the storm passes over your area, there will be a short period of calm, but at the other side of the eye, the wind speed rapidly increases to hurricane force and will come from the opposite direction, so do not go outside.
  • Use radio or mobile services to be fully aware of cyclone’s path.
  • After the storm, Do not touch fallen or low-hanging wires of any kind under any circumstances.
  • Stay away from puddles with wires in/near them. Do not touch trees or other objects in contact with power lines.

People’s forecast

Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP) wants to know its reader’s thoughts!

This is a “live cyclone coverage” that started from May 24 and will end on June 15. From June 15, normal articles of Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP) will resume.

289 replies to “Beware of Cyclone Keila – Special Coverage!”

  1. I simply hope that we get a break from this terrible heat wave in karachi for the next few days

  5. why it back moving to gujrat? is there posibility to hit gujrat coastal areas? what is the wind speed now @Karachimetro

    1. it is going there as per forecast…from there it will start moving towards Sindh….as per forecast there are low chances of this system hitting Gujarat but very high chances of it hitting Balochistan…

    1. its not hitting karachi…there are some fasle reports on Geo, Express and ARY…the system will pass near karachi as a strong cyclone….

  9. unlike other cyclone the heat generated in our city because of industries can form a berrier to slow down the cyclone speed an advantage we have,but i doubt it will hit karachi because of strong sea currents

  11. Is there any possibility that it will hit Gujarat and will not re curve towards balochistan???

    1. there is no story of “recurving” related to this cyclone…its not Phet….if hit Gujarat..it will dissipate..but as per latest forecast it will move from Gujarat to Sindh to Balochistan..peak intensity at Sindh coast and landfall at Balochistan…

  12. plz friends take care of yourself, 200 people died in 2007 Yemyin and my cousin also died during that storm at karachi beach

    1. I will sorry for you and my condolence go to the bereaved family…Thats why it is said to take precautions during storms..we should obey the government’s order related to storm…

  13. @EVERY BODY
    People especially Karachiites SHOULD take precautions from Friday night to Monday morning…respect the government’s order of not going to beaches…for further info read precautions above..

  15. bbc is now showing that cyclone will hit to gujrat and then its will become a low intensity or convert into low pressure

  16. What is the pressure and temperature of the center of the storm? How is the wind speed in the last update?

  17. #KarachiMetro

    Thank you very much for your helpful reply.

    One more thing to ask, that are there any chances that the system will be intensified into a Category Cyclone? If yes, then what you can say, how much percent chances are there??

    Thanks! Many Thanks!

  19. guys , pls dont suspect about cyclone by only observing the IR images , it’ll be a cyclone by thursday / friday and shall bypass us by SAT / sun , heavy rainfalls expected … rains may start by friday night , strangely rite now i can see some lightning show outside my window faint cell bypassing atm :P

  20. and its moving very slowly to northwest positions all the windfamrs are suggesting the same so making a landfall on gujrat and then decapitating intel is highly bogus and incorrect , TRUST PAKMET , if they said that it’ll end up in iran bypassing then hopefully it will InshahALLAH! we all want some gg rains , humidity is insane today and so is KESC :@

  21. this low pressure finish before it reaches karachi there is nothing in it. bbc map is correct all sites are bogus i am experimenting since 1992. only little rain could be on mon and tue.

    1. Lets wait and see, however if truth be told, I would listen to what Karachi Metro has to say about this, his predictions have been spot on since he started this blog.

      As for me, I would definitely appreciate some heavy rain, cool breeze and showers in Karachi.

    2. will you please care to tell me why BBC is showing thundery showers on monday in karachi when its IR animation showing the system will die soon after meeting gujrat coast ? contradicting itself , isn’t it ? :P … wat u saw it probable track , watch is again the system is dying in open see and soon after the animation stops… wait till tomo eve to clarify all ur answers! , if that was going to happen in the 1st place PAKMET is not a fool to issue 3rd cyclone advisory today and so the the media! :P

  24. Whatever the path this cyclone chooses the place where the most brunt is due should take precautionary measures i am espacially talking about the people of karachi i came to know today that after the news of cyclone broke out people rushed to the sea side in huge numbers just to see the waves and its effects … i would only say its a sheer stupidity in other words its same like trying to hug death intentionally although death will get you wherever you are nobody can stop it but people should use some brain instead of nuts

  25. Karachi would have got some thunder storms by now as system is not far from here we could have seen some hit ans miss showers of light intensity starting from today but the main culprit the NORTH WEST dry winds prevailing over most of sindh and gujarat and keeping the temprature in top notches of 40’s and 50’s causing sever heatwave is hindering this activity … in karachi you all should have noticed the weather has become a bit of a dry type …. hopefully by friday rains would start here inshALLAH … i think the system will pass gradually skirting along the sindh coast with maximum strength weakining in intensity moving towards balochistan and iran

  26. @Muhammad Faisal

    i have seen many of ur comments and i’ve noticed that u never talk good,
    even if suppose the system is dissipating so can’t u atleast pray for Karachi to get heavy rains ? Like when the system was moving towards Oman, many of us i think were busy praying for the system to curve towards karachi and now it unexpectedly curved towards Sindh.

    1. contradicts himself , if it even going to die which it won’t ofcourse how the hell bbc is showing thundery rains on monday ? , i mean i loled :P

  27. Yeah the brainless people are again going to the beach to welcome the cyclone :D

  29. today all prediction will waste. i am not seeing rain on friday or saturday. according to gfs forecast

    1. rain forecast is changing 3-4 times in a single day , pakmet says rains expected by tomo eve/night , im going to trust them this time =p

  30. extremely worst forecast will remain for karachi. means no shower .no drizzle till sunday

  33. what are the latest update
    where will it hit sindh or karachi metro karachi tall us plese

  35. as i said in my first massage i am biggest rain lover in world then how can you say that i am not praying for rain. for rain in karachi i just ride on bike for rain to new karachi,malir.banaras.airport cliftion from bahadurabad and catches rain.for rain i go to srilanka mumbai singapore malaysia thailand even in genting muree and winter season when people are freezing i bath in rain and love rain. i am saying again and again follow bbc map not 5 day forcast and you will see its so correct. when bbc map show rain on karachi its rain where its shown even at north karachi south east or west its so perfect yar

    1. Please do not follow BBC…they once showed hailstorm in Karachi even snowfall…there satellite is also not accurate…according to them, thi storm should have made landfall over Mumbai and Goa many days ago…follow GFS, pakweather portal, pakmet, JTWC and IMD…

  36. lets hope so according to them cyclone loses main power after giving rain in gujrat and mumbai then with weak intinsity its come near karachi to balauchistan and give some rain on tue or wed.

  37. Dear Karachi Metro,

    I need to know what will be the highest wind speed at Karachi Bin Qasim area. Because I want to prepare accordingly my equipment. The height of my equipment is more than 125 meter. Can you tell me the wind speed, my system is designed for 120 KM/hr wind? I need to raise warning and then preparation accordingly.
    Plus I love your blog? You are THE weatherman. BRAVO
    Thanks
    Thunderbolt

  38. Dear Karachi Metro,

    Just tell this, that is the depression getting stronger or weaker or when u expecting rain to be started in karachi ?

    1. its a depression as of now…..drizzle with strong winds will start from Friday night and become heavy to stormy from sat night and continue till mon morning…..

  40. some clouds r coming bt i think these clouds will nt cause rain.i think rain will start from saturday according 2 cnn news

    1. I think cyclone clouds will come from east, at the moment in karachi clouds are coming in from west. Am I right Karachi Metro

  42. these are not rain clouds, these are just fair weather cumulus clouds that come in early morning and late evening only. At the time of storm there will be nimbus or cumulonimbus clouds that will cause heavy to very veavy rainfall

  44. Yes ! those clouds will come from east and they will be very dangerous looking :)

  45. CUMULONIMBUS clouds are the KING of all clouds.
    They are the nasty ones that bring rain,hail,snow,thunderstorms and tornadoes.
    These clouds are the only ones that form a supercell. They come to Pakistan in monsoon season. They come from east and they look like an exploding volcano :D

  47. the clouds will start to emerge on friday evening and by night will start to gie rain

  48. storng wind is starting in karachi and thatta also and sea waters enter in keti bander and thatta also…

  51. as i said earlier its not cyclone just is a deep low pressure and when it come to karachi it will be a low pressure and passes away if it will be rain in it it will be on monday and tuesday in karachi. you will see that.

  52. I can see very heavy clouds and intense thunder outside my home … the wind is also blowing in from the unusual direction i dont thnk its blowing from west as i live on fourth floor of an apartment i can clearly feel and see the wind and clouds coming in from other direction the winds have picked up pace from noon today and now they’re blowing without intervals its a sign of approaching weather system i think

  55. y in monsoon season there are more clouds in morning and evening time?wat is the cause behind this patteen?can anybody explain me?

  57. The weather is amazing near my house…even KESC cant mess with our moods today

  62. not really , PAKMET prep charts showing around 26mm of rain , i see it some where around 70-80mm .. lets c thou . D-day tomo =p

  63. LISTEN EVERYONE ! there is no rain on friday or saturay .but.sunday some light rain expected. this is my last observation

  65. looks BBC pridic… is right ???? one day delay ????

    i agree with KM that BBC show some time nounsence…. ;)

  66. Keila looking to skirt the coasts of maharshtra (would move south a wee bit in the next 12 hours) and gujarat before crashing into pakistan..

  67. no rain expect on sat or sun but chance of rain on monday…. let see whats happen………

  68. no rain expect on sat,sun but chance of rain on monday…. let see whats happen………

  69. yet there is no cyclone warning on imd yar. And here you are saying cyclone kiela kiela..Bacha paida hua nahi naam pehle se rakh kia hahahahhahah

  71. zulfi bhai bbc havnt show rain a single day in map forcast follow map forcast not five day pashto main likhum kia

    1. I just hope it rains in karachi, i think we all want a some refreshing weather in the city.

      These small things in life, these ‘choti choti khushiyan’, thats what keeps us Pakistanis going, they distract us from the harsh economic realities, political incompetence and lows of our society.

      Yes, inflation is at an all time high, KESC is up to its old tricks again, prices are rising and our income remains the same, times are tough. But maybe, just maybe these small gifts from God, rain, cool breeze, will make us forget all these troubles just for a while.

    2. kal(wednesday) kaa map forecast shaid aapnai nahi dekha tha bbc per,khi main (thursday) ko t.showers ki forecast thi.yar fazul behas ki kiya zarurat hai bas dua kari k barish ho jai or sab log khairo afyat sai rahain.

      1. Don’t you guys ever sleep :)
        Any how, I agree with you Zulfi, lets hope it rains, but more importantly, lets hope everyone remains safe and no tragedy befalls anyone. Amen

  73. Dear Karachi Metro,

    Please reply as how the PMD satellite image showing it seems like that the depression is getting weak is it in fact ? and also i feel personally that it will no rain from today or even from tomorrow ? is the cyclone developed ? or same a low or getting weak ?

    Please update us….

  75. Dear Karachi Metro,

    First of all no update from your side so far and the last update showing at main page of the site was issued yesterday at 8am, no update may be because of this that we will have nothing from this low means no rain/shower ?

    Please update we need ur updates

    Please reply as how the PMD satellite image showing it seems like that the depression is getting weak is it in fact ? and also i feel personally that it will no rain from today or even from tomorrow ? is the cyclone developed ? or same a low or getting weak ?

    Please update us….

  76. i think strong chances that the cyclone will hit gwadar or between karachi to gwadar,karachi metro y karachi isnt getting rain??????????

  77. Plz give us any updates Karachi metro will there be any rains In karachi from tonight or not ?? :(

  84. after cyclone when monson will start in karachi????because some dark clouds v can see over india in map

  85. the cyclone either dissipate or nt inshallah v will recieve heavest rain in karaaaaaaaaachiiiiiiii;HELLO GUYS M I RITEEEEE????????

  90. Dear brother,
    Asalam-o-Alaikum,
    I live Karachi. I am a weather anthusiast since my childhood… You are doing fabulous job….Keep it up…..
    Rizwan

  92. @ everyone :

    1st of all its not decapitating , just dont predict things by only an IR image there are many other factors involved in it and all of them are showing good signs of gaining more power today , windfarms are changing rapidly so as the barometric pressure is declining at the rate of 2mb / 24hours… system have this tendency to loose a bit a energy during night time cuz of no sun and less heat, it is very much likely to become a cyclone by today evening / night and as its path was predicted earlier it’ll a move a bit towards gujraat and then curve towards us , pls keep that in mind that it wont go towards mumbai or make landfall on indian coast the strong monsoon jet stream currents from BOB will throw it back to arabian sea as it did 6 days ago. as for rains expect them by saturday late night / sunday morning climax day shall be monday.

  95. Dear Karachi Metro,

    Just update us in clear as ur update is showing that whether there is no chance of rain in karachi from today or tomorrow ????????

  97. k.metro plzzzzz dnt say that its looks weak we need strong wheather system in karachi

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