Beware of Cyclone Keila – Special Coverage!

A Special coverage from Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP) regarding this cyclone is over.

  • Cyclone ARB 01 has formed in the Arabian sea

  • Landfall in Gujarat likely

Background

Cyclone ARB 01 is the first tropical storm of 2011 North Indian Ocean cyclone season and the second tropical depression of this Ocean after depression BOB 01. 

The last two major cyclones in Pakistan were Cyclone Onil 2004 and Cyclone Yemyin 2007. Cyclone Phet in 2010 was a depression when it came to Pakistan. Onil killed 9 people in Karachi with 40 mph winds and 32 mm rainfall, However 92 mm rainfall lashed Hyderabad that caused the entire drainage system to collaspe. Yemyin killed 200 people in Karachi with 70 mph winds and 110 mm rainfall, it made landfall near Gwadar. You can reach these previous cyclone articles that PWP made in March, April and May;

Updates regarding ARB 01

Weak cyclonic storm ARB 01 near Gujarat.

 

All the updates will be published below;

(Update 7:00 pm June 11)-follow new article

The first tropical cyclone of North Indian Ocean has formed today. Cyclone ARB 01 is a weak cyclonic storm, it has winds upto 40 mph. It is moving in North Western direction in about 05 knots since 6 hours. Cyclone ARB 01 is 722 km south-east of Karachi.

Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP) had predicted a cyclone from May 23 in the Arabian sea and today its long-range forecast came true. 

(Update 1:00 pm June 11)

“This low pressure should be the king of all the weather systems”

Reason? Well, again according to latest forecast the well-marked low has started deepening once again and is slowly slowly moving in a NW direction towards Gujarat coast and has started leaving Mumbai but very heavy rainfall is falling in Mumbai and should stop tonight. The lastest images also indicate that the low is more organised than few hours ago.

According to GFS, the low will gain depression/ weak cyclone status near Gujarat and Sindh coast and cause heavy rainfall in Sindh coast with strong winds. But according to BBC, the low will just remain stationary near Mumbai and will fizzle out in 3 to 4 days. JTWC does not rule out the possibility of cyclone in the Arabian sea during the 12 to 24 hours. Stay tune!

(Update 9:30 pm June 11)

Chances of formation of tropical cyclone in the Arabian sea are now extremely low. The low will fizzle out in 24 hours according to some forecasting models. But JTWC still maintains there “high” chances of cyclone in next 12 to 24 hours.

PWP request its readers that forecasting a cyclone is very hard. They should expect these types of errors in the future too regarding cyclones. The forecast of Pak Met, JTWC and many international weather forecasters have also forecasted the samething.

(Update 11:42 pm June 10)

In the continuation of  previous update, the marked low has started moving towards coastal Gujarat in a NW direction. The system is leaving the coast of Mumbai to head towards Gujarat.

(Update 6:30 pm June 10)

“ARB 01 is once again near Mumbai – Where all this started”

The system will once again start its journey from Mumbai coast on the night of June 11 or the morning ot June 12 and move towards coastal Gujarat from here it will move a little towards Sindh coast that is NW but quickly move in a SW direction and dissipate near Northern Oman. The system could reach depression to deep depression status.

Under this influence heavy to very heavy rainfall with strong winds likely over western Indian coast, while light rainfall with fast winds over some parts of south eastern Sindh while drizzle in Karachi from June 13 till June 15. This forecast could change in coming days again! stay tune

(Update 2:00 pm June 10)

“Every one is shocked by ARB 01”

The depression has unexpectedly moved eastwards towards Mumbai, westerly trough and dry over North is causing the storm to move ENE. Chances of formation of cyclone is extremely poor, the system could fizzle out near Mumbai during the next 24 hours. But there are also some chances that once these factores die down, the tropical low will move towards Sindh bringing some showers along with fast winds and the low will move in the sea where it will dissipate, its remnants will bring drizzle to northern Oman. In the end, I would say it again, that these are just forecast could change in matter of mintues.

Forecasting a tropical cyclone is not easy. No body expected Hurricane Katrina to become the dangerous cyclone in the North Atlantic Ocean, no body expected Cyclone Gonu to become a super cyclone and no body expected Phet to hit Oman. There had been some strong cyclones in the Arabian sea that caused flooding in Karachi during the year 1985, 1992, 1998, 1999, 2001, 2004, 2007 and 2010.

A new update will be issued when necessary. Stay tune! 

(Update 10:30 am June 10)

“Rainiy activity in Sindh and Makran coast not confirmed yet! “

There are high chances of formation of a tropical storm (cyclone) during the next 24 hours, the wind shear is low and sea temperatures are high. But the problem that occurred yesterday (dry air in the North) has caused the depression to move in a east north east direction (ENE) towards Mumbai at 02 knot. As of now the system is 150 km away west south west of Mumbai and is likely to move in that direction for some hours.

After some hours or even 24 hours, those dry winds will be replaced by moist and humid air and the weather system will start moving towards North-western direction. According to many weather forecast models, the expected cyclone is likely to gain intensity near Sindh after crashing into Makran coast or Iran.

(Update 6:00 pm June 9)

“A one day delay – But forecast remains same!”

The depression in the Arabian sea will take another 24 to 36 hours to become a tropical cyclone. The wind shear is very low and sea temperatures are very high, but the problem is dry air in the North that is blocking the storm to reach cyclonic status. But on June 10 or June 11 the depression is extremely likely to become a cyclone and head towards Pakistan. The cyclone will move in a north western direction and hit the Iranian coast on June 15 as a weak depression. 

Under the influence of this cyclone heavy to very heavy rainfall with strong winds likely all over the coast of Pakistan from June 11 till June 14. The cyclone could intensify further near Karachi.

(Update 8:00 am June 9)

The depression ARB 01 is likely to intensify into a tropical storm during the next 12 to 24 hours. The wind shear is very low and the sea temperatures are above than normal. The system is near the Gujarat coast and is moving towards North western direction at 1 knot. Keila will reach Sindh coast by June 10 night and could intensify further on June 11.

Precautions needed

“WARNING The sea will be mildy rough from Sunday (June 12) afternoon, fishermen should take care while fishing, no threat likely yet”.

Following precautions must be taken;

  • Before the storm, Make sure your windows are protected and your home is secured.
  • Store necessary food items and emergency equipments.
  • Keep a keen observation on the latest movement of the storm
  • During the storm, Stay inside and away from windows, skylights and glass doors. Do not and I repeat do not go outside the house to enjoy the lashing winds.
  • If flooding threatens your home, turn off electricity at the main breaker.
  • If you lose power, turn off major appliances such as the air conditioner and water heater to reduce damage.
  •  If the eye of the storm passes over your area, there will be a short period of calm, but at the other side of the eye, the wind speed rapidly increases to hurricane force and will come from the opposite direction, so do not go outside.
  • Use radio or mobile services to be fully aware of cyclone’s path.
  • After the storm, Do not touch fallen or low-hanging wires of any kind under any circumstances.
  • Stay away from puddles with wires in/near them. Do not touch trees or other objects in contact with power lines.

People’s forecast

Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP) wants to know its reader’s thoughts!

This is a “live cyclone coverage” that started from May 24 and will end on June 15. From June 15, normal articles of Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP) will resume.
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289 thoughts on “Beware of Cyclone Keila – Special Coverage!

  1. Its working for me :).

    Guys this is a cyclone not a F1 car which moves at 350mph. Its moves at a speed of few knots. You can’t predict its motion until or unless it has intensified and become a tropical storm. So just wait and see 🙂

    Give Karachi metro a break, he is doing what he can to update all of us. No matter which coast it will hit, it will definitely bring rainfall to Karachi the only unresolved question is when 🙂

  2. The system is continuously moving towards India, so there are no chances that it will give rain in Pakistan… It will strike the Indian Coast, as you can see in the Satellite Imagery from Pakmet Website, that the system which was too far from india yesterday, is now too much near the coastal areas of India..

    So go to India, to have rains…. Good luck 🙂

  3. Why PMD is saying that the system is moving in North West direction?? Since the system is moving towards east, i.e. India.

  4. by erasing my comments truth cant be hidden. my forcast was right there is nothing in it for karachi and thats truth hahahhaha. we all here for share our experience and idea if some one right all should be appreciate that what you all say

  5. till now there is no cylclone yet yar just a weather system which giving rain to mumbai and those area which are under monsoon coverage thats it, if even this system comes near karachi its givis little amount of rain on mon night and tue morning thats it.

    • Mr. Faisal, you and JAL were about to engage in a war of words..thats why i removed both of your and his comments…I respect my reader’s view…..You need to know that there is a depression in the Arabian sea not a low pressure…obviously you are telling this from BBC…Now there is a westerly trough and dry air in the North that has caused the storm to move towards Mumbai but almost all weather forecast suggest that it will move back to NW direction after the trough and dry dies down….

    • Dear Faisal , I like criticism which make group more strong because if all follow in one direction then there is always a chance of mistake so keep it up and don’t disappoint .

      @ Guys or Ladies if any…
      We should be open to listen every one. Today is JUMMA MUBARAK pray for rain with Blessing whenever it come.

      • Yeah thunderbolt is right pray with sincerity for rain and good monsoon this year today is FRIDAY the blessed day and pray that this weather system will come towards karachi

  6. As for you Mr.Faisal :

    1st : U should stop thinking that you’re the biggest rain lover out there.

    2nd : U need an english tutor.

    3rd : U should stop saying that these are your forecasts.

  7. Yaar i think we shouldn’t fight over here lets keep the atmosphere friendly and brotherly and share our precious views and forecast rather fighting …. if it will rain we all will enjoy that guest no need to fight and inshALLAH it will rain hard in karachi 😀

  8. Usually arabian sea lowest pressures and cyclones are very lazy and never runs over karachi. They either dances over trivandrum to mumbai to muscat to coastal balochistan. KEILA is still presents near Mumbai and not moving over karachi with speed. Today weather is also sunny and hot and forecasters are not saying anything surely. I do not why this only happens with karachi and sindh?

    • I would not say that…last year BBC showed the remnants of cyclone Jal to intensify over arabian sea and hit karachi directly…that never happened…..as jal died near Mumbai due to strong wind shear…

      • now again storng wind in karachi so cyclone will not come here….no rain till monday…but some chances of rain on monday evening..but i think it will also postponed like cyclone update

      • bbc weather is very accurate..but sometime they pridict false information..they can pridict 70 % true weather forcast….!!!!

  9. bbc is best weather site of world and thats true.i repeat again and again look forcast of map not five day but no body listen to me.i am new user here on pwp hope you all adjust with me. 99 persent rain comes in karachi of monsoon from bay of bengal so when ever low pressure built there watch it. i said i am rainlover so i am and for english tutor no need so because we are not here for english language. we are here for sharing experience and news.monsoon still not reaches on south gujrat so there will some time to reach monsoon on karachi bye.

  10. A latest IMD satellite image (13:00 PST) shows that a spurt of cloud will reach Sindh cost by today evening or late night which may cause some drizzle or light rain at eastern coastal border of Sindh.

  11. ACCU Weather “Jim Andrews”

    Tropical Cyclone Threat for Arabian Sea Still AliveJun 9, 2011; 12:50 PM ET
    LOW PRESSURE STILL CONSOLIDATING WEST OF MUMBAI AS OF THURSDAY

    At this writing (1800 UTC June 9, 2011), well-marked low pressure is to be found over the eastern Arabian Sea roughly 200 miles (320 km) west of Mumbai.

    My inclination is that unfavorable wind shear and dry air from the north have worked, thus far, to stave off formation of a tropical depression (or cyclone, for that matter).

    IMD infrared imagery of well-marked low over the Arabian Sea on June 9, 2011.

    By the same token, the low-level cyclonic circulation has not only stayed off shore, it has held together and strengthened noticeably since early week.

    Now we have, from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), a Formation Alert that was issued about 18 hours ago.

    The JTWC are not alone, as the Indian Meteorology Department (IMD) have also advised that tropical cyclone formation is likely (within 48 hours).

    NUMERICAL MODELS STILL AT ODDS

    I am still witnessing a sharp disagreement among the numerical forecast models.

    The latest run of the GFS

    shows a tropical cyclone, as GFS runs have consistently done for days. Admittedly, this model has been too fast in bringing this about (assuming a cyclone is in the making), and the path has shifted significantly.

    Meanwhile, the NOGAPS has given up on the idea of any Arabian Sea tropical cyclone, and its latest run hardly shows any low in its initial time step.

    WHERE WOULD A TROPICAL CYCLONE GO?

    I believe that we will end up with a declared tropical depression, or even cyclone, arising out of the present well-marked low.

    Where it would go is unclear to me. One possible scenario, as shown by multiple runs of the GFS, is for the low center to drift north to near the western Kathiawar coast (Gujarat, India), then hook towards the west and north at sea south of Pakistan.

    Answers will be forthcoming during the next days.

  12. bbc weather is very accurate..but sometime they pridict false information..they can pridict 70 % true weather forcast….!!!!

  13. no rain till monday…but some chances of rain on monday evening..but i think it will also postponed like cyclone update 🙂

  14. I think, this cyclone will die off itself before approaching land…. No chances of rain in Karachi because of this weather system……… Often low pressure develops in Arabian sea does not affect Karachi, confines itself to indian cost as trough….. So Karachi will recieve rain from first week of july, 2011

  15. @ Karachi Metro,

    plz reply is it over or any chance still there to become a storm again ?

  16. Thankyou Karachi Metero, I have learnt alot about weather systems from your website, your articles and the comments of your readers are really helpful.

    I have come across some really good educated comments from some of your readers also. You and your active readers must be praised.

  17. if system will move towards sindh then chances of intesify further.Dust thunderstorm/Rain Possible in lower sindh from Saturday to tuesday. Hope the system change its direction soon.

  18. According to indian weather department , the storm can convert into a cyclone in the next 48 hours which could affect the coast of pakistan

  19. LATEST ARABIAN SEA TROPICAL STORM FORECAST

    The low pressure presently standing stationary west of Mumbai will slowly start moving north. By the time it touches the Saurashtra (India) coast Friday (June 10, 2011) morning it will have turned into a deep depression.

    It will move along the Saurashtra coast for the next two days. By Sunday (June 12, 2011) when it leaves Indian waters near Dwarka, it will intensify rapidly into a cyclone.

    This cyclone, which will be named “Keila”, will skim along the Pakistani coast and only make landfall at Gwadar in Balochistan om June 14, Tuesday. After which it will dissipate on the Balochistan-southern Iran border.

    All the coastal towns in India; Diu, Verval, Porbandar, Dwarka and Karachi in Pakistan will see high speed winds. 80+Kmph.

    Fishermen in both Gujarat and Sindh are warned not to venture into the sea from Friday (June 10, 2011) to Tuesday (June 14, 2011). The storm will mostly be moving in the sea so the winds there will be much more than the land areas. Wind speeds in the seas near the Gujarat and Sindh coast will be very high. 150+ Kmph.

  20. ammad thats ur opinion or news?????metro plzzzz tel us that still is a chance of cyclone or not????????

    • Buddy that was publsihed yesterday…yesterday there were high chances of cyclone but now there nil…its over now..eye on monsoon…cyclone could occur in Sept and October…

  21. #KarachiMetro

    Are there still any chances that the low pressure will be converted into a cylone after it will strike gujrat and move towards sindh??

  22. oh every thing was forecast…….. i am sure cyclone will come … but next …..time….. good buy guys ……

    M. Faisal you win man and prove BBC is right……..

    See you on monsoon time…

  23. i think no chances of cyclone now,karachi will recieve moderate rain with in 2,3 days i m rite karachi metro?????????

  24. So finally, so rains in karachi and there is only hot and sunny forecast. Today, like always once again it has proved that karachi and sindh are very unfortunate and the most unfortunate location i have ever seen. This is 100% true whether anyone accept or not

    • There is a mistake and the original sentence is “So finally, No rains in karachi” and there is hot and sunny forecast

  25. i think baber bhi is in shock… 😦

    My dear KM come up man it all forecast and we enjoyed….

    we still need updates…

    • Yes Thunder, I agree with you, Babar bhai has done a great job so far and has kept us updated.
      One wrong forecast doesn’t change anything, this is an amazing blog and we loved every second of it!

      Whats obvious is that we all want it to rain in karachi!

  26. Dear Cyclone get ur lost strenght back and move towards Khi… w8ing to pick u frm sea view 😀 😀 😀

  27. @EVERY BODY
    the normal articles… including the “normal” Pakistan Weather Update & Monsoon alert will be issued tomorrow..but if this tropical saga still holds for pakistan…then the normal activities of PWP will start from June 15…

  28. No Major Event will Occur,Nothing will happen Only chance of rain from sunday to tuesday in lower sindh The disturbance is weakening…

  29. I just cannot figure out this thing that why every time lowest pressures or cyclones die out while and before reaching karachi? This is probably a result of someone bad curse to karachi and sindh and very unfortunate location is karachi and sindh. Whole year even during there is hot and sunny weather over karachi. I do not know why this only happens with karachi?

    • I meant proper monsoon will start in July and pre-monsoon could start this monday…as according to latest forecast..the low pressure will reach coastal Sindh on Monday…..

  30. Though it hurts to see so much sun but there are so many houses and place that would have faced immense damages. Karachi has natural protections to a lot of natural calamities. We should thank for these rather than think of them as CURSES.

  31. when does monsoon starts in karachi usually ?? Will the expected rain on monday break the heatwave ?? Or it will worsen after one rain as always does

  32. kuch samajh nahi araha,har update per aik nai baat ho jati hai,kabhi cyclone yahan jaiga kabhi wahan?ye cyclone bhi pakistani govt ki tarha hai kuch pata hi nahi chal raha is ka k kiya policy hai isku.

  33. abhi abhi wikileaks ne kha he k is low system ke peche OSAMA BIN LADEN ka hath he kyun k ab wo sumander ko b trainning dera ha.

  34. Keila Is Coming! Finally! She will awake from her ‘hibernation’, gain strength and hit the Saurashtra coast by today (Saturday, June 11, 2011) evening. Keila will be a little girl. A cyclone with wind speeds of 80+ Kmph. Though she might have her nasty spells.

    Contrary to earlier predictions Keila is going to enter the Saurashtra coast more then expected before. It is also going to hit the area around Karachi (Monday, June 13, 2011) evening bang on. It will then peter out Wednesday (June 15, 2011) near the Pakistan coast (Gwadar area).

  35. ARABIAN SEA CYCLONE LATEST XTREME FORECASTS

    . Keila will touch the Saurashtra coast today (Saturday, June 11, 2011) evening near the Diu-Veraval stretch.

    .The coastal towns of Diu, Veraval, Pobandar, Dwarka, Kandla, Mundra, Mandvi will see high speed winds. 80+ Kmph. Interior Saurashtra will have lower winds. 50+ Kmph.

    .Keila will hit the Pakistan coast on Monday (June 13, 2011). Including Karachi.High speed winds of 80+ Kmph.

    .The storm will subside on Wednesday near Gwadar.

    . Heavy showers are expected on the coastal areas of Saurashtra and in Karachi.

  36. KM you said at 9:30 Last update ,,,,,, and i become sad….

    huuu now new update again give some spark to every one…

    Heavy rain in Mumbai since 08:00 IST..

  37. news channels are still saying there will be thunderstorm rain in karachi from tomorrow till monday ………..

    are there any chance of rain in karachi ????????????????????/

  38. KM we need quick update …..

    @ all the rain lover where are you we need comments

    🙂

    • Dear it does not mater it comes or not I am interesting that it formed in cyclone as predicted by KM on 23 May and after long wait it come true….

      If you see my earlier post i always ask for rain with Blessing….

      i think you should too…. 🙂

  39. yesterday literally i ws shocked to hear that the storm is not in the process of formation and no heavy rainfalls will occur in karachi and coastal belts but today i am a bit hopeful that this low will convert into a cyclone very soon hopefully karachites will see heavy downpours me and ma friends we all decided to go the sea view to welcome the storm but eventually our plan ws ruined by ysterday news hope that thuis storm arrives karachi needs rains badly heat is just making our lives difficult and difficult day by day babar bhai plzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz gives us a good news all eyes are on u people are desperately waiting to hear frm good stuff frm u abt this current situstion

  40. in the morning the weather was very good , dark clouds had covered the city and it also drizzled

  41. #babar bhai,

    so this means that there are still som chances of heavy rainfall in karchi??

    please tell.

    thanks.

    • The waves are high during the monsoon and more high when a system is near…but as of now the system is near Gujarat…so on sunday we shall come to know the exact situation…

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