Beware of Cyclone Keila – Special Coverage!

A Special coverage from Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP) regarding this cyclone is over.

• Cyclone ARB 01 has formed in the Arabian sea

• Landfall in Gujarat likely

Background

Cyclone ARB 01 is the first tropical storm of 2011 North Indian Ocean cyclone season and the second tropical depression of this Ocean after depression BOB 01. 

The last two major cyclones in Pakistan were Cyclone Onil 2004 and Cyclone Yemyin 2007. Cyclone Phet in 2010 was a depression when it came to Pakistan. Onil killed 9 people in Karachi with 40 mph winds and 32 mm rainfall, However 92 mm rainfall lashed Hyderabad that caused the entire drainage system to collaspe. Yemyin killed 200 people in Karachi with 70 mph winds and 110 mm rainfall, it made landfall near Gwadar. You can reach these previous cyclone articles that PWP made in March, April and May;

• Cyclone VS Karachi Saint
• Cyclone goes gaga over Sindh
• Detailed history of Cyclones in Pakistan
• Cyclone hits Karachi, India – War with Ghazi deepens!
• History of cyclones in the Arabian sea
• Monsoon 2011 and Cyclones – Sub-continent’s coastal threat?
• Super cyclones – The future of the Arabian sea!!

Updates regarding ARB 01

All the updates will be published below;

(Update 7:00 pm June 11)-follow new article

The first tropical cyclone of North Indian Ocean has formed today. Cyclone ARB 01 is a weak cyclonic storm, it has winds upto 40 mph. It is moving in North Western direction in about 05 knots since 6 hours. Cyclone ARB 01 is 722 km south-east of Karachi.

Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP) had predicted a cyclone from May 23 in the Arabian sea and today its long-range forecast came true. 

(Update 1:00 pm June 11)

“This low pressure should be the king of all the weather systems”

Reason? Well, again according to latest forecast the well-marked low has started deepening once again and is slowly slowly moving in a NW direction towards Gujarat coast and has started leaving Mumbai but very heavy rainfall is falling in Mumbai and should stop tonight. The lastest images also indicate that the low is more organised than few hours ago.

According to GFS, the low will gain depression/ weak cyclone status near Gujarat and Sindh coast and cause heavy rainfall in Sindh coast with strong winds. But according to BBC, the low will just remain stationary near Mumbai and will fizzle out in 3 to 4 days. JTWC does not rule out the possibility of cyclone in the Arabian sea during the 12 to 24 hours. Stay tune!

(Update 9:30 pm June 11)

Chances of formation of tropical cyclone in the Arabian sea are now extremely low. The low will fizzle out in 24 hours according to some forecasting models. But JTWC still maintains there “high” chances of cyclone in next 12 to 24 hours.

PWP request its readers that forecasting a cyclone is very hard. They should expect these types of errors in the future too regarding cyclones. The forecast of Pak Met, JTWC and many international weather forecasters have also forecasted the samething.

(Update 11:42 pm June 10)

In the continuation of  previous update, the marked low has started moving towards coastal Gujarat in a NW direction. The system is leaving the coast of Mumbai to head towards Gujarat.

(Update 6:30 pm June 10)

“ARB 01 is once again near Mumbai – Where all this started”

The system will once again start its journey from Mumbai coast on the night of June 11 or the morning ot June 12 and move towards coastal Gujarat from here it will move a little towards Sindh coast that is NW but quickly move in a SW direction and dissipate near Northern Oman. The system could reach depression to deep depression status.

Under this influence heavy to very heavy rainfall with strong winds likely over western Indian coast, while light rainfall with fast winds over some parts of south eastern Sindh while drizzle in Karachi from June 13 till June 15. This forecast could change in coming days again! stay tune

(Update 2:00 pm June 10)

“Every one is shocked by ARB 01”

The depression has unexpectedly moved eastwards towards Mumbai, westerly trough and dry over North is causing the storm to move ENE. Chances of formation of cyclone is extremely poor, the system could fizzle out near Mumbai during the next 24 hours. But there are also some chances that once these factores die down, the tropical low will move towards Sindh bringing some showers along with fast winds and the low will move in the sea where it will dissipate, its remnants will bring drizzle to northern Oman. In the end, I would say it again, that these are just forecast could change in matter of mintues.

Forecasting a tropical cyclone is not easy. No body expected Hurricane Katrina to become the dangerous cyclone in the North Atlantic Ocean, no body expected Cyclone Gonu to become a super cyclone and no body expected Phet to hit Oman. There had been some strong cyclones in the Arabian sea that caused flooding in Karachi during the year 1985, 1992, 1998, 1999, 2001, 2004, 2007 and 2010.

A new update will be issued when necessary. Stay tune! 

(Update 10:30 am June 10)

“Rainiy activity in Sindh and Makran coast not confirmed yet! “

There are high chances of formation of a tropical storm (cyclone) during the next 24 hours, the wind shear is low and sea temperatures are high. But the problem that occurred yesterday (dry air in the North) has caused the depression to move in a east north east direction (ENE) towards Mumbai at 02 knot. As of now the system is 150 km away west south west of Mumbai and is likely to move in that direction for some hours.

After some hours or even 24 hours, those dry winds will be replaced by moist and humid air and the weather system will start moving towards North-western direction. According to many weather forecast models, the expected cyclone is likely to gain intensity near Sindh after crashing into Makran coast or Iran.

(Update 6:00 pm June 9)

“A one day delay – But forecast remains same!”

The depression in the Arabian sea will take another 24 to 36 hours to become a tropical cyclone. The wind shear is very low and sea temperatures are very high, but the problem is dry air in the North that is blocking the storm to reach cyclonic status. But on June 10 or June 11 the depression is extremely likely to become a cyclone and head towards Pakistan. The cyclone will move in a north western direction and hit the Iranian coast on June 15 as a weak depression. 

Under the influence of this cyclone heavy to very heavy rainfall with strong winds likely all over the coast of Pakistan from June 11 till June 14. The cyclone could intensify further near Karachi.

(Update 8:00 am June 9)

The depression ARB 01 is likely to intensify into a tropical storm during the next 12 to 24 hours. The wind shear is very low and the sea temperatures are above than normal. The system is near the Gujarat coast and is moving towards North western direction at 1 knot. Keila will reach Sindh coast by June 10 night and could intensify further on June 11.

Precautions needed

“WARNING The sea will be mildy rough from Sunday (June 12) afternoon, fishermen should take care while fishing, no threat likely yet”.

Following precautions must be taken;

• Before the storm, Make sure your windows are protected and your home is secured.
• Store necessary food items and emergency equipments.
• Keep a keen observation on the latest movement of the storm
• During the storm, Stay inside and away from windows, skylights and glass doors. Do not and I repeat do not go outside the house to enjoy the lashing winds.
• If flooding threatens your home, turn off electricity at the main breaker.
• If you lose power, turn off major appliances such as the air conditioner and water heater to reduce damage.
•  If the eye of the storm passes over your area, there will be a short period of calm, but at the other side of the eye, the wind speed rapidly increases to hurricane force and will come from the opposite direction, so do not go outside.
• Use radio or mobile services to be fully aware of cyclone’s path.
• After the storm, Do not touch fallen or low-hanging wires of any kind under any circumstances.
• Stay away from puddles with wires in/near them. Do not touch trees or other objects in contact with power lines.

People’s forecast

Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP) wants to know its reader’s thoughts!

This is a “live cyclone coverage” that started from May 24 and will end on June 15. From June 15, normal articles of Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP) will resume.