Pakistan Weather Update & Monsoon alert (July 15 – July 21)

  • Heat to grip Southern Pakistan!

  • No deaths occurred since July 6

  • Karachi’s long wait for monsoon continues

Background for upcoming weather

Precipitation till July 22 – Temperature till July 22

Upper and Northern parts of Pakistan are experiencing the third spell of current monsoon season which will continue till July 17 night. A western trough, which is interacting with monsoon moisture will enhance the activity over these areas. Humidity will remain high in all monsoon areas of Pakistan. Non-Monsoon regions that is Balochistan, FATA and western Khyber will remain dry. Some weak heat wave may occur in southern parts of Pakistan during the period.

Heat wave coming: Temperatures outlook

Sparrow drinking water

Temperatures have not changed and are not expected to change as compared to last update, except few southern parts that is Sindh, lower Balochistan and southern Punjab where it will increase. Following is the expected temperature in Sindh;

  • 45 °C to 47 °C in Sukkur.
  • 44 °C to 47 °C also in Larkana.
  • 42 °C to 44 °C in Nawabshah.
  • 39 °C to 43 °C in Hyderabad.
  • 32 °C to 34 °C in Karachi. (Not changed since last update)
Overall the temperatures in mostly upper Sindh will increase by 2°C to 3°C, due to cloudy and windy conditions in coastal Sindh, the temperatures will not rise in those areas.
Due to the rainy activity in Punjab and Khyber, all the cities of these provinces will remain cool, but once the third monsoon spell is over, temperatures will rise there too. Following is the temperature of some cities of Punjab and Khyber;
  • 41 °C to 45 °C in Lahore.
  • 35 °C to 40 °C in Islamabad.
  • 42 °C to 45°C in Multan.
  • 42 °C to 45°C in Faisalabad.
  • 37 °C to 41 °C in Peshawar. (Not changed since last update)
Overall once the third spell monsoon spell finishes in Upper Pakistan and cloudy activity decreases in lower Pakistan then temperatures will rise. However in coastal monsoon belt of Pakistan the temperatures will remain unchanged.
Heat wave and Precautions
People living in those areas where a mild heat wave is expected that is Upper Sindh, Southern Punjab and Balochistan. They should try to take precautions during the summer heat wave. Following people are mostly affected during a heat waves;
  1. Older people, especially those over 75 years old.
  2. People suffering from mental ill-health, those with dementia, and those who rely on help from other people to manage day-to-day activities.
  3. People who are bed-bound or have mobility problems.
  4. People taking certain types of medication.
  5. People with a serious chronic condition, particularly breathing or heart problems.
  6. People who already have a high temperature from an infection.
  7. People who use alcohol or illicit drugs.
  8. Babies and young children, especially under four years old.
  9. People who are physically active such as manual workers, or sportsmen and women.

Weather-related incident!

36 people have died since June 25 in Pakistan till July 15 due to weather related incidents. The deaths occurred due to heat waves, monsoon rainfall and river floodings. The death toll has not risen since July 6. Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP) will keep tracking the death toll due to weather-related incident in Pakistan to show the people that how many citizens die during the monsoon season.

Monsoon 2011 update

  • Third monsoon spell in full swing in Pakistan!
  • Western trough and eastern currents interacting!
  • Karachiites eagerly waiting for first drop of rain!

Third monsoon spell in Upper Pakistan
Lahore during a dust storm and rainfall

Lots of thunder, winds, rainfall, black clouds and lightening, this is what Punjab, Khyber, Kashmir and few parts of Gilgit are experiencing since few days. The third monsoon spell will continue till July 17 with occasional gaps, the interaction between a western trough and monsoon currents from the Arabian sea is the main cause that would cause some heavy rainfall but no flooding-like situation likely at the moment, at least not from the third spell. After July 17, a break is expected all over Pakistan but few isolated thunderstorms can not be ruled out during that period. During the last week of July, a fourth spell of monsoon and a final monsoon rainfall of July is expected in these same areas.

“We want rain now!!”, Karachiites say
The patience of Karachiites have fizzled out and now they want their share of monsoon. After a long wait since the expected “Tropical storm ARB 01” in June, Karachiites have been waiting for rains since then, they might have to wait till at least few more days as no weather system is likely to approach the thirsty and crisis-hit city. But there is a little hope that once the fourth spell starts in Upper Pakistan, the first monsoon spell may start in coastal Sindh including Karachi, while second spell may start in Upper Sindh. So will Karachi get finally get rainfall?
Looking back, it must be noted that monsoon usually happens in Karachi after July 15 rarely it happens before July 15, here are the few monsoon dates in Karachi since 2004;
  • In 2004, monsoon started on October 2.
  • In 2005, monsoon started on September 12.
  • In 2006, monsoon started on July 26.
  • In 2007, monsoon started on June 21.
  • In 2008, monsoon started on July 28.
  • In 2009, monsoon started on July 17.
  • In 2010, monsoon started on June 6.
Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP) had earlier forecasted that monsoon may hit Karachi around July 15 (+- in days) since nature had some other plans so monsoon is more likely to hit coastal Sindh during the last week of July, there are slim chances of it not hitting in July as some models continue to show no rainfall till July 31.

Poll of the week

Last week’s poll showed that 54% people believed that rainfall would occur from this low pressure that is over Madya Pradesh, while 45% showed that this low will not cause anything in Karachi. So Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP) wants to know from you that;
Announcement: You could follow PWP on twitter now for latest updates, breaking news, news alert and severe weather warning! 

180 replies to “Pakistan Weather Update & Monsoon alert (July 15 – July 21)

  1. Why this current low would not give any rains in coastal belt of sindh …. is this because of its weak intensity or it going nort westward ???

  2. However pakmet says some isolated thundershowers/rain may occur in southern sindh during next 24hours … one thing should be noted today the sky is cloudless here in karachi no cloud cover and the wind has also died down much

  3. hey guys almost all the weather websites are forecasting rains on 23rd july for karachi

  4. I hope LARKANA AND SUKKUR DIVISIONS Will get heavy rain fall in few days am i right and karachi metro whats update for upper sindh rite now heavy clouds coverd on larkana city . Any gud change expected here bcoz no any website of weather is forcast today heavy clouds for larkana so karachi metro plz tel me in details

  5. @Zaka
    low is far too far from South Pak…and is moving in North will fizzle out quickly…as far as PMD forecast for lower Sindh goes… I am pretty sure they mean south-eastern Sindh………however PWP forecast drizzle/light rainfall in SE Sindh while drizzle in coastal Sindh…NO thundershowers expected in coastal Sindh till many days…
    @Danish Raza
    some very isolated spotty showers “could” occur tomorrow due to presence of thunderstorm clouds over South Punjab…but mostly the conditions will be cloudy/partly cloudy…temperatures will rise in coming days..
    if you mean the low over India…then “NO” its not going to affect Pak…may increase some moisture over Punjab…other than that no affect on Pak…its the western trough that is interacting with monsoon currents.. which is causing rainfall there….

  6. last.nite very heavy clouds with lighting and garj ke.sath aai 4 bajy .and.then some gud.rain here in larkana and now cloudy weather hah so km it can be happen today again

    1. In the western Pacific Ocean…there is a typhoon “Ma-On”…that is a category-3 hurricane at the moment…it will become a category-4 hurricane tomorrow, while some are saying that its a category-4 at the moment…it will head to Japan to make landfall there as a category 3 or 2 hurricane….

  7. @km
    After 17 july when heat wave will return to sindh is this any signal that monsoon will hit karachi after this heat wave

    1. heat comes and goes during monsoon..temp rises when monsoon spell is finished and they calm down once another spell comes…though chances persist of monsoon hitting karachi during last week of July…….

  8. Cyclone Ma On change the wind pattern in subcontinent and aid the monsoon and the monsoon will reach Karachi around 23 to 24 July because there is very good cross equaterial flow is going on Arabian Sea and a UAC is also established over Gujrat .
    Whats your Opinio Mr Karachi Metro ?

  9. @km i just saw a weather system present in the arabian sea on bbc and if in 24 hours the weather changes it can come to karachi

  10. i have been forecasting for the past 4 years and in my experience bbc forecast was 95% accurate , and yes cyclone usually deosnt from in july , but the weather is changing due to the global warming, rainfall increasing and decreasing , it can be some weather rain system also , bbc didnt said that its a cyclone

  11. Today the weather in karachi so warm,the wind has totally stoped and no stupid and no rainy clouds are comming,,,, may be inshallah rains will occured in last weak of july! Am i right??? any one please give opinion on my post i’m waitng……..!!!

  12. Peoples, its too early to say that the rains will start at the end of july, wait untill a system forms and heads toward karachi. We can’t predict rains accurately before 10 days, Some weather models were showing rains in karachi on 13,14 and 15 of this month but u see what happened. Karachi is at the tail of monsoon, so prediction of rains in karachi is even more difficult to predict than upper or eatern sindh.

  13. ^ its far away yaar … our winds farms are much much stable so signs of rains so far :/

  14. UPPER SINDH larkana and sukkur divisions IS GOiNG TO GET RAIN NOW but still unlucky because they depends on ARB
    buhat hee mushkil se hee arabian sea karachi clouds and rain behta hah kunke arabian sea khud to muslim sea hah bit saari gadari karta hah muslim countries se wo sara system rain ka india .mumbai behjta hah . Gadaar arabian sea huh

  15. @Danish Raza

    Karachi doesn’t depend on ARB for rains, it depends on BOB.
    karachi depends on ARB for cyclones.

    1. Wind was NW since 3 am till 12 pm today in Karachi and now its SW…. change in wind direction and sudden drop of humidity is the key cause of heat today…

    1. WTH is that … is that weather controlling(HAARP) on full swing to cause a manmade drought or a malfunction of website :S

  16. there is a thunder cell near to us , but not for us 😛 … hyderabad/jamshoro may see some rains tonight … we might get something after 24th as winds farms are showing stable change in directions =P

  17. i live in karachi , but IR image showed a thunder cell above jamshoro … chk out the ir image rite now … 60% lower sindh is cover under pink blotch …

  18. told u guys , lower is going to get some rains tonight … we just might see something too late or early morning , rains reporting in thatta too …

  19. 2day some areas of sindh hs recievd heavy rain including noriyabad,islam kot,umer kot,and konkar near super where r u dear karachi metro?????i think some chances of in karachi tomorrow

  20. JACKIE its mean chances of rain in karachi on 18th julyyyyy?????babar bai is it rite?????

    1. no there shall be no rains for us from that system , the wind farms aren’t stable for khi , they were stable and directed for lower sindh hence i said it’ll gona rain their … we just might see something after 24th so wait wait n more wait…

  21. Guys see this image of pakmet it shows whole karachi is covered with clouds,,, ye raat boht azeem hy Allah se barish ki dua karein!!!! Now karachi metro what’s your opinion about rains in karachi,,? the whole karachi is covered with clouds!!!

  22. itnai badal agar agar punjab ya kpk main hon to wahan to buhut barish hoti hai laikin yahan khi main to barish ka kuch pata hi nahi

  23. lightning in sky…plz pray for good rain in karachi because today is the night of Mercy…

  24. pakmet did not forecast today rain in sindh.and tommarow. but today raining at few place in sindh

  25. there’s a good news … the UAC over gujarat is expected to become a low pressure by tomorrow GFS also showing that but GFS is showng its direction ging inland through gujarat coast …. karachi may get some rains from it inshALLAH 🙂 …. i can see the altocumulus clouds coming in from east

  26. No chances of rain till end of July, i think there would be no Moonson in karachi this year.

  27. UAC will precipitate rains over the North Gujarat ,Saurashtra peninsula and adjoining Kutch on Monday, and move west. If the system persists over the region, maybe for a day , the rains will naturally linger on over Gujarat for an extended time.

    It could be a possibility now, that this system could bring some rains to the Sindh coast from Monday/Tuesday. Expecting, and hoping, Karachi to receive its monsoon rains from this system early next week .

    Whats your opinion Mr Karachi Metro ?

    1. Thats the forecast of VOW… but I think that drizzle/moderate drizzle could occur as monsoon is near Karachi, also widespread rainfall is likely in Gujarat so some weak thunderstorm might cross border and chances of monsoon hitting karachi persist during last week of July…

  28. Cirrocumulus clouds coming from East.
    n0w there are no arabian sea moisture fair weather cumulus clouds.

  29. @Sam and Zohair
    As of now its a UAC..some models are showing it to deepen a bit..maybe a low or well-marked low….some showing it will move to Gujarat coast and then move NE…while some show it will got through Mumbai to NE… No affect on Karachi likely except for some light rainfall in adjoining coastal Sindh coast and south-eastern Sindh……

  30. its raining hard in lahore for past 3 hours and KM’s daily updates days drizzle / light rain in punjab ?!?!?!? … lolwtf?

    1. It depends upon the quantity, speed, rate of falling, in how many seconds/hours/minutes how much rain fell…you do not just look at the rain and say it is “hard”….and its not raining in whole Lahore…some areas of the city are dry…

      1. i know the math mate , had worked for PAKMET’s accounts section for 7 months , left it cuz of taking over of family business but i still have my useful strings out their anyways lets leave it their , thou i do get real time updates from lhr , my friend lives here in karachi is out their for vacations got a call from her around 9 in the morning she too was awaken by the thunder i heard it too on phone AAHHH! it was amazing … 5mm rains recorded in lhr … =p … sindh have to wait few more days 😛

  31. Mr KM , today morning’s (00z) GFS model runs show a Low forming over North Gujarat – Saurashtra by tomorrow i.e. Tuesday. Both the 500mb and 850 mb maps show the forming of the Low. So there are bright chances of Monsoon hitting Karachi in 1 or 2 days and good rainfall is expected if this low pressure heading towards karachi .

    What do you think ?

  32. Breaking News : Pakmet satellite image shows gathering of clouds over Gujrat,Surastra and Kutch which is very near to Karachi ,so there is a possibility of thunderstorm to pop up today evening or tommorow morning Insha Allah . A Low Pressure Area is also developed on Gujrat , Suastra and Kutch .

  33. Mr KM this low will effect karachi Inshaallah and light to moderate rain will occur in Karachi . Now the half of sindh is covered under monsoon dark clouds showed in pakmet sattelite picture . Where are your updates ?

  34. No rain for Karachi, this yaer,
    One spell of a rain would not be an affect of Moonson system.
    Moonson is a system which gives continuous rain on weekly basis. We have also noticed continues weekly spells on moonson system in Lahore, Islamabad and in India / Bangladesh.

    1. monsoon havn’t started yet in karachi and balouchistan … and our khi’s annual rainfall is less then 100mm , i can’t understand why u R-Tards compare khi with lhr / isb / delhi / mumbai ?!?!?! their is a huge difference in weather geography bhaie!!! why dont u compare khi with somalia or iran or iraq ? they hardly get rains

      1. dear Jackie,
        my opinion was for Moonson system, Somalia , iran and iraq do not come under monson system.
        Khi, mumbai, delhi, lhr,isb come under influence of moonson system.

  35. KARACHI METRO !!! WHATS UPDATE FOR UPPER SINDH ! Low pressure in gujrat ! will effect on upper sindh and give some gud healthy rains here ?
    and what about future rains in larkana ! some models are showing heavy rain falls from 24 july

    1. there is no low yet….mostly cloudy/partly cloudy over U.Sindh with few passing drizzle can not be ruled out… there are chances of monsoon rainfall during last week of july…

  36. karachi metro………
    will it rain in khi or not….check out both bbc and pakmet images….
    its hell lot of clouds coming towards khi….

  37. Salam Babar Bhai,

    Yeh jo PWP k mutabiq Arabian Sea main Low form ho raha hai, kia is say Karachi main rain ho sakti hai???

    1. Yes Zohair,

      Me looking to ask same from KM why KM is not replying as this forecast is looking to be good for sunday and onwards…

  38. km is it confrm now that 1st spell of monsoon going 2 start on 24th july in karachi????

  39. GFS now showing low pressure system forming on 24th midday , upper sindh will start getting rains as early as 23rd , we on 25th , 25th and possible heavy falls on 26th … lets c how this end up …

  40. Until winds direction, East or north east say nai hoon ga, there would be no change of rain in karachi.

    1. winds will be following from WSW even if it rains … when a pressure enters a high wind velocity area it have the potential to disrupt all those patterns , pakmet now upgraded to 9mm rains in karachi , im hoping this shall increase in coming days …

      1. WSW winds would never make any affect in the climate of karachi ,Weather remains the same if the western winds wont stop.
        In Karachi rainy clouds always come from east or North.

      2. before any monsoon system approaching karachi…..the WSW or SW winds die in 24 hours….and N or NE or SE or NW… winds start to blow…generally we observe that before monsoon rains a big gust of winds starts blowing from NE….indicating rain in few minutes….

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