Pakistan Weather Update & Monsoon alert (August 26 – September 2)

  • Pakistan under the grip of active monsoon

  • Kohat gets 240 mm rainfall in 24 hours!

  • 192 people dead in Pakistan since June 25

Background

Much of Pakistan has received rainfall with the upper parts being battered by scattered heavy falls that has led to flash flooding in the Kohistan region of Khyber province, overall monsoon has been active in Pakistan since August 25. Temperatures were normal due to frequent cloud-cover while in some areas it rised. The level of humidty was high across the monsoon belt of Pakistan.

Factors

Pakistan's precipitation and temperature

*Monsoon supply from Arabian sea likely to stay, however intensity will decrease and increase from time to time.

*Fresh western trough entered Pakistan on August 25 and is over India’s Kashmir  and adjoining Gilgit region.

*Temperatures are expected to remain in comfort zone while humidity will remain high due to frequent showers in some areas.

Weather incidents: Flash flooding in Kohistan!

Kohat city has received a total of 240 mm rainfall, that is the highest in 24 hours in the province during the current monsoon season. Heavy rainfall caused flash flooding in the local rivers that have now killed at least 63 people. The death toll is now 192 since June 25, all these deaths were a result of heat waves, windstorms, flash flooding and heavy rainfall. As compared to other monsoon season, this year the death toll is less compared to 2007, 2009 and 2010. People are requested to take precautions during any type of extreme weather.

  • Fresh spells in Sindh

  • What is next for Karachi?

  • Eid’s moon will be visible!

Monsoon News of Pakistan

Monsoon rainfall have been below-normal is many areas excluding the upper parts of Pakistan where interaction between westerlies and easterlies led to enhance precipitation. Six monsoon spell have occurred in Upper Pakistan excluding the pre-monsoon spell. While four monsoon spells have occurred in Southern Pakistan with no pre-monsoon spell. Overall the monsoon was inactive in the month of July in southern parts of the country while it is expected to remain active till the end of August in Sindh. Following is the monsoon status in the country;

*Fresh that is the 5th monsoon spell is likely to start in Sindh during the start of coming week.

*Monsoon activity, 6th monsoon spell will continue in Khyber, North-east Punjab and Khyber with few gaps, new spell may also start in these areas.

Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP)’s forecast

“Notice: This is the forecast from Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP), we are 85% confident with this prediction. There will be slight variations in our forecast as certain meteorological factors develop and fade as time passes by and these factors are too isolated to be noticed on numerical charts or models. According to various meteorological parameters this forecast has been made.”

  • Forecast for Sindh will be revised on August 31 if any new developments happens 
Pakistan Conditions: Outlook for August 30

Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP) had successfully predicted the 1st, 2nd, 3rd and 4th monsoon spell in Sindh. PWP on August 26 predicts the fifth monsoon spell in south-eastern and coastal Sindh keeping certain meteorological parameters in mind. As of August 26, PWP forecasts;

” ‘High’ chances of monsoon hitting Sindh from start of the coming week.”

As of 7:00 pm PST August 26, Various models, numerical charts and other meteorological parameters observed by PWP indicate that

*The upper air cyclonic circulations over north-west Bay of Bengal would move westwards, meaning inland by August 26 late night or August 27 morning and may gain strength to become a low pressure in 1 to 2 days, before moving to southern-western states of India, bringing widespread rainfall to these states of India. It might than lose intensity over Gujarat-Maharashtra. It will enter by maintaining its intensity in south-eastern Sindh on August 30 or August 31 according to GFS. The exact date however varies from model to model.

*Monsoon winds from upper parts of Pakistan will again shift to southern parts after 1 to 2 days, increasing moist winds in Sindh.

Following is the weather forecast that is expected;

Islamabad

The 6th spell of monsoon will continue in the capital. Rainfall with moderate and chances of isolated heavy falls expected in 48 hours. Rain will be accompained by thunder and fast winds.

Mercury is expected in Islamabad;

  • 31°C to 34 °C in Islamabad.

Punjab

In Northern Punjab: Lahore, Faisalabad, Murree, Rawalpindi, Sargodha, Sialkot and other adjoining cities. The 6th spell of monsoon will continue in the capital. Rainfall with moderate and chances of isolated heavy falls expected in 48 hours. Rain will be accompained by thunder and fast winds.

Following is the temperature forecast for Northern Punjab;

  • 32 °C to 35 °C in Lahore.
  • 33°C to 48 °C in Faisalabad.
  • 28°C to 33°C in Murree.

In Southern Punjab: Bahawalpur, Multan, Rahim Yar Khan, D. G. Khan and other adjoining cities. Rainfall with moderate and chances of isolated heavy falls expected after 2 to 3 days. Rain will be accompained by thunder.

In Southern Punjab, temperatures will be higher than Northern Punjab;

  • 34 °C to 36 °C in Multan.
  • 34 °C to 38 °C in  Bahawalpur.

Sindh

In Upper Sindh: Sukkur, Larkana, Jacobabad, Kashmore, Nawabshah and other adjoining  cities. The fresh monsoon spell will begin from August 29 or August 30 and continue till 2 to 3 days. Rain will be accompanied by winds and thunder, it will be moderate in intensity with chances of isolated heavy falls mostly after August 29.

Temperatures remained stationary in many parts of upper Sindh while few highs were recorded in few cities.

  • 32 °C to 37 °C in Sukkur.
  • 34 °C to 38 °C also in Larkana.
  • 35 °C to 38 °C in Nawabshah.

In South-eastern Sindh: Mirpur khas, Umerkot, Tharparkar, Badin and Hyderabad. The 5th monsoon spell will begin from August 29 or August 30 till 2 to 3 days. Rain will be accompanied by fast winds and thunder, it will be mostly heavy in intensity with chances of isolated very heavy falls in some extreme eastern parts, bordering Gujarat especially Mirpur Khas district. There are chances of flooding in Mirpur Khas and Badin districts. 

Temperatures will also calm in south-eastern Sindh due to long spell of very heavy rainfall during last few days.

  • 32 °C to 33 °C in Hyderabad.

In coastal Sindh: Karachi, Thatta, Keti, Shah Bandar and other coastal localities. The 5th monsoon spell will begin from August 29 night/August 30 and continue 2 to 3 days, Rain will be accompanied by fast winds and thunder, it will be moderate in intensity with chances of isolated heavy falls in Karachi while chances of scattered heavy rainfall in Keti Bandar and Thatta.

Due to frequent cloud over and fast winds the mercury in Karachi and other coastal cities has remained unchanged since July 1;

  • 31 °C to 34°C in Karachi.

The moon of Eid-ul-Fitr

Notice: “Due to Eid-ul-Fitr, Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP) will be partially closed from August 28 (Sunday) till September 4 (Sunday). Due to Eid holidays, PWP-FB and PWP-Twitter will also remain partially closed and normal activities will be resumed from September 4.”

The moon of Eid might be only visible in the province of Balochistan as the monsoon belt of Pakistan may have a partly cloudy/mostly cloudy weather with showers. Sindh might be under the influence of the 5th monsoon spell. The coastal parts of Balochistan especially Gwadar will have a clear sky thus the chances of viewing the moon is higher in the western parts of Pakistan.

Timing of PWP from August 28 till September 4 due to Eid

  • 1:00 pm to 1:30 pm

  • 7:30 pm to 8:30 pm

All the reader’s questions and their answers and updates will be posted during these timings, these timings is only valid till September 4 due to Eid holidays.

Poll of the week

Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP) wants to know;

384 replies to “Pakistan Weather Update & Monsoon alert (August 26 – September 2)”

  1. @KM :

    Nice article. I wanted to ask you that how many chances of HEAVY FALLS are there in Karachi ?

  4. OMG ! thnx Babar bhai raising our hopes.
    I thought you’d again say that chances of heavy rainfall in Karachi are 20-30% =p

  6. They changed their forecast for MONDAY to cloudy yesterday but today they again forecasted THUNDERY SHOWER on monday.

  9. yaar babar bhai plz tell me if hurricane irene will affect toronto becuz my bro lives there…….

  10. @Imdad
    Cyclones and Hurricanes are same things…even Typhoons are same.. Irene WAS a major hurricane during the last 24 hours it has significantly weakened and is now a category-1 hurricane that is expected to weaken further, could still bring flooding rainfall..
    @Saad
    No rainfall..
    @Sam
    Hurricane Irene has started weakening during the last 24 hours, it is now a category-1 hurricane, it is expected to weaken further, Toronto is very inland. so no threat…

  13. Babar bhai Mirpurkhas City m tuesday our wednesday ko kaisa weather hony k ziyada chances hein?plz only update Mirpurkhas City not mirwah,digri or etc….

  15. @Saad
    Its is not a law that all weather forecast should be same in the world, there is a difference of forecast between the PMD, IMD, bangladesh met office etc..similarly other websites show rain in Karachi on any day while the other website will show cloudy weather.. similarly the forecast of models vary too.
    @Aqib
    some year passes by with no activity, to early to go in cyclones at the moment…
    @Wasi
    there are good chances of heavy rainfall in Mirpur Khas on Tuesday while slightly less chances on the other day..
    @Tarim
    Mostly by monday evening/night, watch out for some high level clouds at that time..

  17. yar bharish bhi tab hogi karachi me jab me sukkur hoon ga

    @Km
    sukkur me karachi se tez bharish hogi ya kam jaldi bta de plz ??????????????

    how much %

  18. Hmmm. Thnkxx but k.m bro rite now on CNN channel says that IRENE will hit NEWYORK AT 75 MPH WIND BY SUNDAY MORNING and IRENE WILL HIT WASHINGTON D.C AT 80 MPH WIND BY SATURDAY NIGHT .AND IRENE WILL GOING TO HIT NEWYORK DIRECTLY SO what going to be happen now so is this can demage the newyork lots or low demage

  19. hi guyz, PMD issue special advisory of very heavy rains and flooding situation in comming days in lower sindh including KARACHI..!!!
    According to PMD special advisory….,,,

    Sindh

    Scattered rain/thundershowers expected in lower Sindh on Monday/Tuesday. Widespread rain/thundershowers with isolated heavy falls expected from Wednesday to Saturday in most parts of Sindh including Karachi. Heavy falls may cause severe flooding in the province, particularly in lower Sindh.

  20. @KM :

    Thnx for the gud news bro.
    Are there chances of heavy to isolated very heavy rainfall in Karachi now ?

    1. Very heavy rainfall is expected in south-eastern Sindh…as I said that the article will be updated on August 28 between 7:30 – 8:30 pm… but now there are very good chances of heavy rainfall as compared to yesterday’s good chances…..

  32. CUMULUs clouds c0ming from northeast.
    Might transform into mature stage (CUMULONIMBUS).
    What do u say KM ?

  37. @KM :

    Overcast in Karachi suddenly, any chance of rains to start from tonight Babar bhai bc0z BBC sh0wing THUNDERY SHOWER now from tomorrow.

    1. well, the overcast skies does not usually means rain in few minutes..chances of from August 29 evening/night..In short, low did not find conditions suitable,..there is no new development as of now..so I will update the article tomorrow..

  41. @KM :

    PMD showing heavy clouds over Sindh near Karachi.
    Still no chances of rain to start from tonight ? ;p

  43. Km what wil be the forecast for 2morow in Karachi as you said that moisture incursion will start from today toh can we expect rain/drizzle in monday morning in Karachi?????

  44. ASSLAM WALAIKUM KM BRO HOW ARE YOU ? AND WHAT WE CAN EXPECT TODAYS WEATHER IN LARKANA DIVISION ? COULD HEAVY RAINFALL CAN OCCURE HERE? OR JUST CLOUDY ?

  45. heavy rains expected or not? :S and wht r these clouds over sindh? Shouldn’t it be raining right now?

  48. Karachi Current condition :

    Temperature : 34C
    Condition : Broken clouds, Extremely hot
    Pressure : 1003mb
    Humidity : 53%
    Visibility : 8km
    Wind : 11km/h from West-Northwest

    “Update Of 12:00PM PST”

  54. @Imdad
    walaikum assalam.. there are chances of rainfall in Larkana today mainly later in the day..
    @Sam
    There are chances…
    @Tarim
    Chances of rainfall are for whole week, we will see cloud formation on-and-off..

  56. @KM :

    Well you’re right but right n0w THUNDERSTORMS are developing as you can clearly see that the TOWERING CUMULUS clouds are slowly transforming into CUMULONIMBUS clouds.

  57. @KM :

    This UAC has got something to do with the wind change and temperature rise in Karachi right ?

    1. actually since the morning, the usual SW or WSW has been mostly cut off, we saw NE winds, SE, WNW, NW and again for brief period SW winds, lack of sea breeze is causing temp to rise also the presence of moisture coming from Gujarat due to UAC…

  59. KM is the system weakend ??? And i wana know what will cuz rain the local thunderstorm or the up coming system ????

  64. where do u live… guys… i am living in badurabad area and it is burning hot here and no clouds visible……….

  73. Yup they’re comming from N/E and sky of N/E direction is black and heavy clouds over here in North Karachi!!!

  74. Yup they’re comming from N/E and sky of N/E direction is black and heavy clouds over here in North Karachi!!! Karachi metro when will rain start??

  78. yes there are clouds on the east side but ther are very separated. 30 minutes ago i thought its going to rain very heavily and i went to the roof and now i am back again in my room coz nothing is happening. It was very cloudy and dark in the east 30 minutes ago but now it has weakened alot. i dont see anything happening :(

  86. they will come ,the good thing is the clouds atained great height which is necessory for heavy downpour it will rain inshalah at night

  88. IR image sh0wing that the clouds are over Southeastern Sindh.
    INSHA’ALLAh it will rain tonight.

  89. nothing hea guyzzzz my location is saddar and the sun is shining yaar has the system weaknd again like last time ;-(

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