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Pakistan under the grip of active monsoon
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Kohat gets 240 mm rainfall in 24 hours!
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192 people dead in Pakistan since June 25
Background
Much of Pakistan has received rainfall with the upper parts being battered by scattered heavy falls that has led to flash flooding in the Kohistan region of Khyber province, overall monsoon has been active in Pakistan since August 25. Temperatures were normal due to frequent cloud-cover while in some areas it rised. The level of humidty was high across the monsoon belt of Pakistan.
Factors
*Monsoon supply from Arabian sea likely to stay, however intensity will decrease and increase from time to time.
*Fresh western trough entered Pakistan on August 25 and is over India’s Kashmir and adjoining Gilgit region.
*Temperatures are expected to remain in comfort zone while humidity will remain high due to frequent showers in some areas.
Weather incidents: Flash flooding in Kohistan!
Kohat city has received a total of 240 mm rainfall, that is the highest in 24 hours in the province during the current monsoon season. Heavy rainfall caused flash flooding in the local rivers that have now killed at least 63 people. The death toll is now 192 since June 25, all these deaths were a result of heat waves, windstorms, flash flooding and heavy rainfall. As compared to other monsoon season, this year the death toll is less compared to 2007, 2009 and 2010. People are requested to take precautions during any type of extreme weather.
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Fresh spells in Sindh
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What is next for Karachi?
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Eid’s moon will be visible!
Monsoon News of Pakistan
Monsoon rainfall have been below-normal is many areas excluding the upper parts of Pakistan where interaction between westerlies and easterlies led to enhance precipitation. Six monsoon spell have occurred in Upper Pakistan excluding the pre-monsoon spell. While four monsoon spells have occurred in Southern Pakistan with no pre-monsoon spell. Overall the monsoon was inactive in the month of July in southern parts of the country while it is expected to remain active till the end of August in Sindh. Following is the monsoon status in the country;
*Fresh that is the 5th monsoon spell is likely to start in Sindh during the start of coming week.
*Monsoon activity, 6th monsoon spell will continue in Khyber, North-east Punjab and Khyber with few gaps, new spell may also start in these areas.
Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP)’s forecast
“Notice: This is the forecast from Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP), we are 85% confident with this prediction. There will be slight variations in our forecast as certain meteorological factors develop and fade as time passes by and these factors are too isolated to be noticed on numerical charts or models. According to various meteorological parameters this forecast has been made.”
- Forecast for Sindh will be revised on August 31 if any new developments happens
Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP) had successfully predicted the 1st, 2nd, 3rd and 4th monsoon spell in Sindh. PWP on August 26 predicts the fifth monsoon spell in south-eastern and coastal Sindh keeping certain meteorological parameters in mind. As of August 26, PWP forecasts;
” ‘High’ chances of monsoon hitting Sindh from start of the coming week.”
As of 7:00 pm PST August 26, Various models, numerical charts and other meteorological parameters observed by PWP indicate that
*The upper air cyclonic circulations over north-west Bay of Bengal would move westwards, meaning inland by August 26 late night or August 27 morning and may gain strength to become a low pressure in 1 to 2 days, before moving to southern-western states of India, bringing widespread rainfall to these states of India. It might than lose intensity over Gujarat-Maharashtra. It will enter by maintaining its intensity in south-eastern Sindh on August 30 or August 31 according to GFS. The exact date however varies from model to model.
*Monsoon winds from upper parts of Pakistan will again shift to southern parts after 1 to 2 days, increasing moist winds in Sindh.
Following is the weather forecast that is expected;
Islamabad
The 6th spell of monsoon will continue in the capital. Rainfall with moderate and chances of isolated heavy falls expected in 48 hours. Rain will be accompained by thunder and fast winds.
Mercury is expected in Islamabad;
- 31°C to 34 °C in Islamabad.
Punjab
In Northern Punjab: Lahore, Faisalabad, Murree, Rawalpindi, Sargodha, Sialkot and other adjoining cities. The 6th spell of monsoon will continue in the capital. Rainfall with moderate and chances of isolated heavy falls expected in 48 hours. Rain will be accompained by thunder and fast winds.
Following is the temperature forecast for Northern Punjab;
- 32 °C to 35 °C in Lahore.
- 33°C to 48 °C in Faisalabad.
- 28°C to 33°C in Murree.
In Southern Punjab: Bahawalpur, Multan, Rahim Yar Khan, D. G. Khan and other adjoining cities. Rainfall with moderate and chances of isolated heavy falls expected after 2 to 3 days. Rain will be accompained by thunder.
In Southern Punjab, temperatures will be higher than Northern Punjab;
- 34 °C to 36 °C in Multan.
- 34 °C to 38 °C in Bahawalpur.
Sindh
In Upper Sindh: Sukkur, Larkana, Jacobabad, Kashmore, Nawabshah and other adjoining cities. The fresh monsoon spell will begin from August 29 or August 30 and continue till 2 to 3 days. Rain will be accompanied by winds and thunder, it will be moderate in intensity with chances of isolated heavy falls mostly after August 29.
Temperatures remained stationary in many parts of upper Sindh while few highs were recorded in few cities.
- 32 °C to 37 °C in Sukkur.
- 34 °C to 38 °C also in Larkana.
- 35 °C to 38 °C in Nawabshah.
In South-eastern Sindh: Mirpur khas, Umerkot, Tharparkar, Badin and Hyderabad. The 5th monsoon spell will begin from August 29 or August 30 till 2 to 3 days. Rain will be accompanied by fast winds and thunder, it will be mostly heavy in intensity with chances of isolated very heavy falls in some extreme eastern parts, bordering Gujarat especially Mirpur Khas district. There are chances of flooding in Mirpur Khas and Badin districts.
Temperatures will also calm in south-eastern Sindh due to long spell of very heavy rainfall during last few days.
- 32 °C to 33 °C in Hyderabad.
In coastal Sindh: Karachi, Thatta, Keti, Shah Bandar and other coastal localities. The 5th monsoon spell will begin from August 29 night/August 30 and continue 2 to 3 days, Rain will be accompanied by fast winds and thunder, it will be moderate in intensity with chances of isolated heavy falls in Karachi while chances of scattered heavy rainfall in Keti Bandar and Thatta.
Due to frequent cloud over and fast winds the mercury in Karachi and other coastal cities has remained unchanged since July 1;
- 31 °C to 34°C in Karachi.
The moon of Eid-ul-Fitr
Notice: “Due to Eid-ul-Fitr, Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP) will be partially closed from August 28 (Sunday) till September 4 (Sunday). Due to Eid holidays, PWP-FB and PWP-Twitter will also remain partially closed and normal activities will be resumed from September 4.”
The moon of Eid might be only visible in the province of Balochistan as the monsoon belt of Pakistan may have a partly cloudy/mostly cloudy weather with showers. Sindh might be under the influence of the 5th monsoon spell. The coastal parts of Balochistan especially Gwadar will have a clear sky thus the chances of viewing the moon is higher in the western parts of Pakistan.
Timing of PWP from August 28 till September 4 due to Eid
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1:00 pm to 1:30 pm
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7:30 pm to 8:30 pm
Poll of the week
Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP) wants to know;
Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP) 
384 responses to “Pakistan Weather Update & Monsoon alert (August 26 – September 2)”
@KM :
Nice article. I wanted to ask you that how many chances of HEAVY FALLS are there in Karachi ?
thank you Tarim… there are is a good chance rainfall in coming week, with more chances of isolated heavy falls than the last spells…
I just hope that this week could be the wettest week for Karachi
iss eid mai bi barish hogi last eid ki tarah.
yes as of today…
OMG ! thnx Babar bhai raising our hopes.
I thought you’d again say that chances of heavy rainfall in Karachi are 20-30% =p
BBC not changing their forecast for tuesday and monday since 24th august.
They changed their forecast for MONDAY to cloudy yesterday but today they again forecasted THUNDERY SHOWER on monday.
km bro plz tell us about IRENE thunder it is cyclone or hurrican and how much it have capacity to demage
Any chance of rain today K.M
yaar babar bhai plz tell me if hurricane irene will affect toronto becuz my bro lives there…….
@Imdad
Cyclones and Hurricanes are same things…even Typhoons are same.. Irene WAS a major hurricane during the last 24 hours it has significantly weakened and is now a category-1 hurricane that is expected to weaken further, could still bring flooding rainfall..
@Saad
No rainfall..
@Sam
Hurricane Irene has started weakening during the last 24 hours, it is now a category-1 hurricane, it is expected to weaken further, Toronto is very inland. so no threat…
Then why PMD predicting rain today????
@Km
after monsoon when will tropical activity begins in arabian sea
Babar bhai Mirpurkhas City m tuesday our wednesday ko kaisa weather hony k ziyada chances hein?plz only update Mirpurkhas City not mirwah,digri or etc….
@KM :
When will we start to see the effects of the 5th spell.
fr0m monday ?
@Saad
Its is not a law that all weather forecast should be same in the world, there is a difference of forecast between the PMD, IMD, bangladesh met office etc..similarly other websites show rain in Karachi on any day while the other website will show cloudy weather.. similarly the forecast of models vary too.
@Aqib
some year passes by with no activity, to early to go in cyclones at the moment…
@Wasi
there are good chances of heavy rainfall in Mirpur Khas on Tuesday while slightly less chances on the other day..
@Tarim
Mostly by monday evening/night, watch out for some high level clouds at that time..
babar bhai no coverage for rains during next week in this blog?
Timing of PWP from August 28 till September 4 due to Eid
1:00 pm to 1:30 pm
7:30 pm to 8:30 pm
yar bharish bhi tab hogi karachi me jab me sukkur hoon ga
@Km
sukkur me karachi se tez bharish hogi ya kam jaldi bta de plz ??????????????
how much %
heavy rainfall across Sindh but more in Mirpur Khas and Badin districts…
Hmmm. Thnkxx but k.m bro rite now on CNN channel says that IRENE will hit NEWYORK AT 75 MPH WIND BY SUNDAY MORNING and IRENE WILL HIT WASHINGTON D.C AT 80 MPH WIND BY SATURDAY NIGHT .AND IRENE WILL GOING TO HIT NEWYORK DIRECTLY SO what going to be happen now so is this can demage the newyork lots or low demage
yes, but if you see, the winds are dropping as time passes by, damage could be severe as there is a threat of flooding rainfall and storm surge..
hi guyz, PMD issue special advisory of very heavy rains and flooding situation in comming days in lower sindh including KARACHI..!!!
According to PMD special advisory….,,,
Sindh
Scattered rain/thundershowers expected in lower Sindh on Monday/Tuesday. Widespread rain/thundershowers with isolated heavy falls expected from Wednesday to Saturday in most parts of Sindh including Karachi. Heavy falls may cause severe flooding in the province, particularly in lower Sindh.
I can;t see any of this news on PMD :s
@KM :
Thnx for the gud news bro.
Are there chances of heavy to isolated very heavy rainfall in Karachi now ?
Very heavy rainfall is expected in south-eastern Sindh…as I said that the article will be updated on August 28 between 7:30 – 8:30 pm… but now there are very good chances of heavy rainfall as compared to yesterday’s good chances…..
:D
I wish there would be supercells in Karachi :D
HP Supercells*
cumulonimbus mothership :p
@KM :
Why can’t i see any low pressure over Orissa in the PMD sat. image :/
it is not well developed..it will start to attract clouds after 24 to 36 hours…however an area of low is present over Orissa…
So Km bro what is update for upper sindh is larkana get heavy rain fall in eid holidays
looks like if the condition stays…
Intellicast.com showing 100% precipitation in Karachi on 30th august.
Strange, the winds in Karachi are Northwest right now/
http://news.bbc.co.uk/weather/forecast/151
34 °C in Karachi, temp rising since 10 am…
Hurricane Irene maintains its intensity so far. As at least 10 people have died in eastern U.S…
@KM :
awWw it weakened :(
CUMULUs clouds c0ming from northeast.
Might transform into mature stage (CUMULONIMBUS).
What do u say KM ?
see bbc,showing thundery showers from monday to thursday never saw that this whole year.
100% chance of rain on weather.com on tuesday
K.M any chances of rain in Karachi today after midnight???
drizzle/isolated showers…
@KM :
Is the UAC weakening ?
no… moisture incursion is taking place though…
@KM :
Overcast in Karachi suddenly, any chance of rains to start from tonight Babar bhai bc0z BBC sh0wing THUNDERY SHOWER now from tomorrow.
@KM :
Then why did the Low Pressure weakened to a UAC ?
@KM :
u said that the article will be updated t0day.
?? :S
well, the overcast skies does not usually means rain in few minutes..chances of from August 29 evening/night..In short, low did not find conditions suitable,..there is no new development as of now..so I will update the article tomorrow..
@KM :
PMD showing heavy clouds over Sindh near Karachi.
Still no chances of rain to start from tonight ? ;p
infact, drizzle/isolated light showers have started in upper Sindh…
rain tomorrow? km
yes, chances are from tomorrow, mainly evening/night..
Km what wil be the forecast for 2morow in Karachi as you said that moisture incursion will start from today toh can we expect rain/drizzle in monday morning in Karachi?????
ASSLAM WALAIKUM KM BRO HOW ARE YOU ? AND WHAT WE CAN EXPECT TODAYS WEATHER IN LARKANA DIVISION ? COULD HEAVY RAINFALL CAN OCCURE HERE? OR JUST CLOUDY ?
heavy rains expected or not? :S and wht r these clouds over sindh? Shouldn’t it be raining right now?
LoL just like bef0re :/
They will dissipate without giving rains :/
OMG ! CULUMONIMBIS clouds c0ming from the EAST :D
Karachi Current condition :
Temperature : 34C
Condition : Broken clouds, Extremely hot
Pressure : 1003mb
Humidity : 53%
Visibility : 8km
Wind : 11km/h from West-Northwest
“Update Of 12:00PM PST”
I think THUNDERSTORMS are developing over Karachi now.
Conditions are favourable too.
Temperature has rised to 35C n0w.
Where are you babar bhai ?
??
What are the conditions right n0w ?
@Imdad
walaikum assalam.. there are chances of rainfall in Larkana today mainly later in the day..
@Sam
There are chances…
@Tarim
Chances of rainfall are for whole week, we will see cloud formation on-and-off..
@KM :
has this system weakened ?
@KM :
Well you’re right but right n0w THUNDERSTORMS are developing as you can clearly see that the TOWERING CUMULUS clouds are slowly transforming into CUMULONIMBUS clouds.
@KM :
This UAC has got something to do with the wind change and temperature rise in Karachi right ?
actually since the morning, the usual SW or WSW has been mostly cut off, we saw NE winds, SE, WNW, NW and again for brief period SW winds, lack of sea breeze is causing temp to rise also the presence of moisture coming from Gujarat due to UAC…
Great ! CUMULUS clouds have transformed into CUMULONIMBUS clouds in the East.
KM is the system weakend ??? And i wana know what will cuz rain the local thunderstorm or the up coming system ????
Heavy CUMULONIMBUS coming from the East.
heavy clouds are coming,light drizzle in my area.
heavy clouds are coming.i think rain will strt in few moments
hearing loud thunder sounds
where do u live… guys… i am living in badurabad area and it is burning hot here and no clouds visible……….
in steel town…its dark here with loud thunder sounds…
now rain strted in steel town….
in north karachi…heavy clouds are coming but slowly.its very hot at the moment.
NO CLOUDS HERE! IT SO HOT! KAB AYEGAY BADAL? :( :@
now dark clouds are coming.should be rain in 30 minutes
Umair where do u live? :S the sky is clear over here :@
north karachi
NOW they are coming :) winds are blowing from the north…..
Where do u live Sam?
Yup they’re comming from N/E and sky of N/E direction is black and heavy clouds over here in North Karachi!!!
Yup they’re comming from N/E and sky of N/E direction is black and heavy clouds over here in North Karachi!!! Karachi metro when will rain start??
I live in phase 8
its scorching hot here :(
clouds are very slow
yes there are clouds on the east side but ther are very separated. 30 minutes ago i thought its going to rain very heavily and i went to the roof and now i am back again in my room coz nothing is happening. It was very cloudy and dark in the east 30 minutes ago but now it has weakened alot. i dont see anything happening :(
dont lose hope
bad news, these clouds are dissipating.
Not dissipating.
I don’t kn0w why isn’t it raining :/
Pressure was 1005mb at 12:00PM PST and n0w it has dr0pped 998mb.
That’s gud.
it will eain check out lates satellite pis eastern sindh is covered with intense clouds
OMG :S Very gusty winds here :s
and ths sky is starting to get dark aswell
NO, the clouds are all g0ne n0w.
they will come ,the good thing is the clouds atained great height which is necessory for heavy downpour it will rain inshalah at night
n0w i can see s0me high-altitude-perfect CUMULONIMBus clouds from the East.
IR image sh0wing that the clouds are over Southeastern Sindh.
INSHA’ALLAh it will rain tonight.
nothing hea guyzzzz my location is saddar and the sun is shining yaar has the system weaknd again like last time ;-(
:,-(
no yar it hasnt it is gaining strength wait for 2 hours inshalah it will come
Clouds are g0ne.
It will dissipate giving light/no rain :)
It is raining Heavily Near Hyderabad and in badin and in most Sindh except karachi.
i think heavy rain is about to start.
Look at the gust front out side :D
A pakistani Gust front :d
Rain started Here at Safurah.
dark clouds coming from north!!!!
heavy rain now.
BREAKING NEWS:
Gulstan johar mai tez aandhi k saat mowsladar baarish
dark clouds with winds,but no rain