Pakistan Weather Update & Monsoon alert (August 26 – September 2)

  • Pakistan under the grip of active monsoon

  • Kohat gets 240 mm rainfall in 24 hours!

  • 192 people dead in Pakistan since June 25

Background

Much of Pakistan has received rainfall with the upper parts being battered by scattered heavy falls that has led to flash flooding in the Kohistan region of Khyber province, overall monsoon has been active in Pakistan since August 25. Temperatures were normal due to frequent cloud-cover while in some areas it rised. The level of humidty was high across the monsoon belt of Pakistan.

Factors

Pakistan's precipitation and temperature

*Monsoon supply from Arabian sea likely to stay, however intensity will decrease and increase from time to time.

*Fresh western trough entered Pakistan on August 25 and is over India’s Kashmir  and adjoining Gilgit region.

*Temperatures are expected to remain in comfort zone while humidity will remain high due to frequent showers in some areas.

Weather incidents: Flash flooding in Kohistan!

Kohat city has received a total of 240 mm rainfall, that is the highest in 24 hours in the province during the current monsoon season. Heavy rainfall caused flash flooding in the local rivers that have now killed at least 63 people. The death toll is now 192 since June 25, all these deaths were a result of heat waves, windstorms, flash flooding and heavy rainfall. As compared to other monsoon season, this year the death toll is less compared to 2007, 2009 and 2010. People are requested to take precautions during any type of extreme weather.

  • Fresh spells in Sindh

  • What is next for Karachi?

  • Eid’s moon will be visible!

Monsoon News of Pakistan

Monsoon rainfall have been below-normal is many areas excluding the upper parts of Pakistan where interaction between westerlies and easterlies led to enhance precipitation. Six monsoon spell have occurred in Upper Pakistan excluding the pre-monsoon spell. While four monsoon spells have occurred in Southern Pakistan with no pre-monsoon spell. Overall the monsoon was inactive in the month of July in southern parts of the country while it is expected to remain active till the end of August in Sindh. Following is the monsoon status in the country;

*Fresh that is the 5th monsoon spell is likely to start in Sindh during the start of coming week.

*Monsoon activity, 6th monsoon spell will continue in Khyber, North-east Punjab and Khyber with few gaps, new spell may also start in these areas.

Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP)’s forecast

“Notice: This is the forecast from Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP), we are 85% confident with this prediction. There will be slight variations in our forecast as certain meteorological factors develop and fade as time passes by and these factors are too isolated to be noticed on numerical charts or models. According to various meteorological parameters this forecast has been made.”

  • Forecast for Sindh will be revised on August 31 if any new developments happens 
Pakistan Conditions: Outlook for August 30

Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP) had successfully predicted the 1st, 2nd, 3rd and 4th monsoon spell in Sindh. PWP on August 26 predicts the fifth monsoon spell in south-eastern and coastal Sindh keeping certain meteorological parameters in mind. As of August 26, PWP forecasts;

” ‘High’ chances of monsoon hitting Sindh from start of the coming week.”

As of 7:00 pm PST August 26, Various models, numerical charts and other meteorological parameters observed by PWP indicate that

*The upper air cyclonic circulations over north-west Bay of Bengal would move westwards, meaning inland by August 26 late night or August 27 morning and may gain strength to become a low pressure in 1 to 2 days, before moving to southern-western states of India, bringing widespread rainfall to these states of India. It might than lose intensity over Gujarat-Maharashtra. It will enter by maintaining its intensity in south-eastern Sindh on August 30 or August 31 according to GFS. The exact date however varies from model to model.

*Monsoon winds from upper parts of Pakistan will again shift to southern parts after 1 to 2 days, increasing moist winds in Sindh.

Following is the weather forecast that is expected;

Islamabad

The 6th spell of monsoon will continue in the capital. Rainfall with moderate and chances of isolated heavy falls expected in 48 hours. Rain will be accompained by thunder and fast winds.

Mercury is expected in Islamabad;

  • 31°C to 34 °C in Islamabad.

Punjab

In Northern Punjab: Lahore, Faisalabad, Murree, Rawalpindi, Sargodha, Sialkot and other adjoining cities. The 6th spell of monsoon will continue in the capital. Rainfall with moderate and chances of isolated heavy falls expected in 48 hours. Rain will be accompained by thunder and fast winds.

Following is the temperature forecast for Northern Punjab;

  • 32 °C to 35 °C in Lahore.
  • 33°C to 48 °C in Faisalabad.
  • 28°C to 33°C in Murree.

In Southern Punjab: Bahawalpur, Multan, Rahim Yar Khan, D. G. Khan and other adjoining cities. Rainfall with moderate and chances of isolated heavy falls expected after 2 to 3 days. Rain will be accompained by thunder.

In Southern Punjab, temperatures will be higher than Northern Punjab;

  • 34 °C to 36 °C in Multan.
  • 34 °C to 38 °C in  Bahawalpur.

Sindh

In Upper Sindh: Sukkur, Larkana, Jacobabad, Kashmore, Nawabshah and other adjoining  cities. The fresh monsoon spell will begin from August 29 or August 30 and continue till 2 to 3 days. Rain will be accompanied by winds and thunder, it will be moderate in intensity with chances of isolated heavy falls mostly after August 29.

Temperatures remained stationary in many parts of upper Sindh while few highs were recorded in few cities.

  • 32 °C to 37 °C in Sukkur.
  • 34 °C to 38 °C also in Larkana.
  • 35 °C to 38 °C in Nawabshah.

In South-eastern Sindh: Mirpur khas, Umerkot, Tharparkar, Badin and Hyderabad. The 5th monsoon spell will begin from August 29 or August 30 till 2 to 3 days. Rain will be accompanied by fast winds and thunder, it will be mostly heavy in intensity with chances of isolated very heavy falls in some extreme eastern parts, bordering Gujarat especially Mirpur Khas district. There are chances of flooding in Mirpur Khas and Badin districts. 

Temperatures will also calm in south-eastern Sindh due to long spell of very heavy rainfall during last few days.

  • 32 °C to 33 °C in Hyderabad.

In coastal Sindh: Karachi, Thatta, Keti, Shah Bandar and other coastal localities. The 5th monsoon spell will begin from August 29 night/August 30 and continue 2 to 3 days, Rain will be accompanied by fast winds and thunder, it will be moderate in intensity with chances of isolated heavy falls in Karachi while chances of scattered heavy rainfall in Keti Bandar and Thatta.

Due to frequent cloud over and fast winds the mercury in Karachi and other coastal cities has remained unchanged since July 1;

  • 31 °C to 34°C in Karachi.

The moon of Eid-ul-Fitr

Notice: “Due to Eid-ul-Fitr, Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP) will be partially closed from August 28 (Sunday) till September 4 (Sunday). Due to Eid holidays, PWP-FB and PWP-Twitter will also remain partially closed and normal activities will be resumed from September 4.”

The moon of Eid might be only visible in the province of Balochistan as the monsoon belt of Pakistan may have a partly cloudy/mostly cloudy weather with showers. Sindh might be under the influence of the 5th monsoon spell. The coastal parts of Balochistan especially Gwadar will have a clear sky thus the chances of viewing the moon is higher in the western parts of Pakistan.

Timing of PWP from August 28 till September 4 due to Eid

  • 1:00 pm to 1:30 pm

  • 7:30 pm to 8:30 pm

All the reader’s questions and their answers and updates will be posted during these timings, these timings is only valid till September 4 due to Eid holidays.

Poll of the week

Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP) wants to know;

384 replies to “Pakistan Weather Update & Monsoon alert (August 26 – September 2)”

  6. Karachi metro,,, why this heavy wind blowing from N/E,,,, and in your daily update that “Chances of Urban flooding in Karachi” so when heavy rains start in karachi??? waiting for your reply KM…..

  14. Karachi Current Conditions :

    Temperature : 26C.
    Humidity : 100%
    Pressure : 1002mb.
    Visibility : 3km.
    Wind : 33km/h North-Northeast.

    Last Updated : 11:00 AM.

    …

  20. karachi metro which day/date you are expecting heavy rain in karachi???? waiting for your reply………….

  21. There won’t be any heavy rain until or unless CUMULONIMBUS clouds form.
    The current clouds in Karachi are just not capable to give heavy rains.

  22. subha to bht taiz barish hwi thi…look at pmd image more clouds are coming towards khi

  23. yar waqai hi subah kafi tez barish thi or taqreeban 3 hrs tak musalsal hoti tahi thi……

  25. More clouds coming ? oh plz ! yesterday, the same clouds were over Karachi but n0thing happened.
    There won’t be any heavy rain.

  26. EID mubarak babar bhai…Babar bhai Mirpurkhas City m waqfy waqfy se halki our tez barish ho rahi hai peechly 3 din se.kya 3rd september ko jo low presure eefect kary ga sindh ko us ki wajha se Mirpurkhas City m Heavy to V.Heavy rain hogi???

    1. Khair Mubarak Wasi…….the new low MIGHT enter Pakistan, it will be a short spell of rains but it could drop some isolated heavy falls in the city before dissipating..

  28. yaar i dont understand this. all websites are showing heavy rains for karachi for the whole week and nothing is happening. See interior sindh again got more than 250 mm of rain in one day. BBC still showing heavy rains till sunday and all we are getting is light rain and that too for only an hour.
    It looks as if there is some force which is stopping the rain in karachi.. I dont know what is that but its very very frustrating :(

    1. Yes, there is unknown something stopping here to rains in karachi and thats why we are not getting heavy rains. According to forecast karachi should get flooding downpours but in reality karachi is only getting light showers for few mintues and other time weather is sunny

  29. High chances of heavy rain today in Karachi as CUMULUS clouds have arrived and it’s very warm today and they can transform into CUMULONIMBUS clouds.
    If they do then there will be HEAVY RAIN INSHA’ALLAH.

  32. @KM :

    “More thundershowers at times moderate/isolated heavy expected in Sindh including Karachi (evening/night)”

    TODAY ?

      1. @EVERY BODY
        The pressure of the low is expected to drop from 998 mbar to 996 mbar during the night…Highest temperature in Karachi was 32 today..now temp is decreasing..

  34. Km bro LARKANA is Under Grip Of Rain From 2 Days Continuesly and today is 3rd day ! of rainy weather here
    YOU mentioned that ther is 48 MM rain ! but i think this rain which i haved seen from last 2 days this should be above from 130mm …
    KARACHI METRO sir what you have update for larkana and how many days this spell continue in SINDH and what about NEXT spell which u have said that starting from 3rd september in sindh

    1. this 5th spell will continue further for 2 to 3 days, however the next spell is still far away, so once this spell finishes then the new one will be discussed, which might be a short spell…

  35. KM which low you are talking about the 1 that is in Arabian sea???? And pls update me about the rains in Karachi its hot big cloubs coming from E/NE with sunny intervals the sky isnt geting blockd or overcast can you tell me what are the chances of rain in Karachi cause its should be raining heavily today and its not its the opposite its sunny pls tell me about the weather am waiting for your reply

    1. 1.ARB’s low
      2. thunderstorms or rainfall takes time to form…as of now some isolated showers have occurred in parts of DHA at about 3:00 pm
      3. chances of rainfall persists till 2 days..

  38. KM
    clouds are forming in SW or W…. very dark…. i dont knw why…..VERY DARK… any few broken and scattered clouds are in NE… WILL THEY GIvE rain>.>> kARaCHi metro

  43. guys whats the status of rain in karachi yaar there are so dark clouds in west direction but hear the sun is out and its partly cloudy.

  44. KM I dont see any chance of raining heavily today also there are clouds i guess strong thunderstorms in west direction but nuthing hear what do you say about heavy rains ???? i live in Saddar so its prety open the sky i cant see any thunderstorm coming in this direction only small clouds are going bus thats all is hear

  46. The CUMULUS clouds came from NE and transf0rmed into CUMULONIMBUS reaching SW and no clouds are c0ming from SW direction.
    There won’t be any HEAVY RAIN.

  50. intense thunderstorms have developed in central and eastern sindh chec pmd imafe and then will move towards karachi in one to two hours

  52. Well, what i’m expecting is …………………………………………………………………………………………………….NOTHING !

  55. guysss… good news… storm is approaching…. its lightning in the east.. its gona rain in about an hour or sooooo.. YESSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSS

  59. the wind is blowing and the sky become yellow at the time of sunset but there are no signs of rain here in steel town..

  60. I live in Gulistan-e-Jauhar.. It is lightning yaar.. i saw it 3 times in last 10 minutes. thori thori deer se ho rahi hai.. gap zyada hai. but believe me ho rahi hai… infact aik baar kafi tez lightning thee…. just have patience guys…..lightining direction is east to south east

  62. Just heard on Dunya tv that according to PMD weather system over sindh will strenghten after 2 days and sindh specially KARACHi will recieve VERY HEAVY RAINS after 2 days….

    BABAR, please update us about this development and what is the basis of this specific prediction about Karachi and what is your view on that?

  63. Yeah, after 2 days, the weather system will gain strength and there will be very heavy rain all over Sindh.
    I can see preiods of lightning n0w with longer gaps which indicates that the RAIN CLOUDS are far away right n0w.
    let them c0me cl0ser.

  66. Yaar it doesnt matter if rain clouds are far away it can only take 5 minutes for clouds to come and burst… there are chances of heavy rains as long as we have this lightning going ..
    Also when Babar come online everybody please do ask him to explain the karachi situation in detail

    1. the present low is expected to intensify further, bringing some more showers to Sindh with chances of rainfall in Karachi too, also the other low over central India should also be watched as it could move towards SIndh, however there are no chances of “very heavy rainfall” in Karachi…

  69. @KM :

    Is there a thunderstorm developing over Karachi ?
    I can see lightning from NE.
    What do u say KM ?

    1. thunderstorms are moving towards Karachi from North-eastern parts, now the question is whether they have maintained their intensity or not…and you are right orange and blue lightening strikes have occurred, although like I said that chances of rainfall in karachi from evening/night…

  70. Thanks Babar for your update. But I dont understnad yaar we are reading these same predictions for the last 5 days and this prediction is also the same for next 5 days but still no meaningful rains. Usually BBC is very conservative in predicting heavy rains or thundery showers but its been almist a week now since it is reporting heavy rains for Karachi everyday. I dont know something must be seriosuly wrong with the Weather Models or may be every Model fails when it comes to Karachi.

  71. After seeing the PMD’s IR image, i think they’ll c0me to Karachi
    maintaining there intensity.

      2. @EVERY BODY
        Karachi forecast is same, new developments happen after 4 to 6 hours not every minute..for further info readers could check “monsoon of Pak” page

  73. ya i saw lightning too bt nw its stoppd guys i dont get it whats happening update about the weather for karachi please

  77. How many chances are there of heavy rain in karachi from 2nite till tomorow??? Cause it hasnt being raining hear that much and im reali confusd nw every site is telling heavy rai n in karachi but the fact is nothing is happening tell me y KM????

  78. ridiculous predictions yaar…… samajh nahin aaraha jab sindh main itni rain horain hain to karachi kyun nahin yaar……….

  79. @KM

    you said that system will intensify in karachi tonight as well marked low and further u said

    the present low is expected to intensify further, bringing some more showers to Sindh with chances of rainfall in Karachi too, also the other low over central India should also be watched as it could move towards SIndh, however there are no chances of “very heavy rainfall” in Karachi…

    WHY NO CHANCE OF HEAVY RAIN???????????

  86. I think light rain has started in some parts of Karachi bc0z most sites are sh0wing THUNDERSTORMS in Karachi.

  88. @ K.M, Heavy rain in almost all sindh and many parts of sindh from 3 days continue. Karachi mein to ek taraf asmaan per badal hotay to baki taraf koi badal ka nishan hi nahi hota. Waisay bhe karachi mein kuch minutes ki light rain hoti hai phir sunshine during the day and very clear sky during the night. Why no name of black rainy clouds over karachi? Why no meaningful rains over karachi?

  89. KM bro i thnk may low in ARAB make a heavy cyclone or heavy monsoons in sindh and khi but ham 3 din se itni baarish horai hah larkana mei contiunsly ke sachi na eid karpaein hei naa hee eid ka doosra din and km bro what you think about more rainfalls in sindh and ARB low situation cyclone or heavy rains

  90. Heavy rains in whole sindh except karachi. Clear sky during night and sunshine during the day over karachi. Why? Which thing is stopping here to rains in karachi?

  91. @EEVRYONE :

    There’s a gud news bros.

    FORGET rains in Karachi n0w.
    Today, THUNDERSTORMS came to Karachi and dissipated without giving rains. LOOOOOOOOOL

  92. hope it rain in khi today….. dont lose hope guys…. anything could happen at any time…. all websites showing 90% rain in khi today… pray guys…. MAY ALLAH SHOWER PLENTIFUL RAIN IN KARACHI….(ameen)

    1. Oh plz A.K ! wake up, we have been seeing that forecast since 29th august.
      29th august was somewhat gud for Karachi.
      Till then, we only have been seeing JUST JUST forecast of HEAVY RAINS but no HEAVY RAINS.

  94. yaaar ye jo arabian sea main well marked low hai… ye kia karachi aasakta hai? wht its direction KM?

    1. its not a well-marked low but a strong low pressure, it has intensified further but not expected to gain more strength… it will move towards Gujarat, bringing showers to Sindh during the next fews..

  98. Met Office warned about more widespread heavy at times very heavy rains in Sindh including Karachi, southern Punjab and eastern parts of Balochistan during next 3 days (Sat to Monday). Heavy to very heavy rains would generate more flooding in Sindh and flash flooding in D.G.Khan division and at a number of places in Balochistan during next 3 days.

    Met Office further informed that the current spell of monsoon rains would continue for another 4 days, and scattered rain/thundershowers are also expected in rest of the country (upper Punjab, Khyber Pakhtoonkhwa and Kashmir) during the period.

    All concerned authorities are advised to remain ALERT during next 3 days.

    pmd new alert

    UMEED KI KIRAN

  99. @ K.M, Why sunshine and clear sky over karachi and heavy rains over whole sindh? Arabian sea is useless and cannot give any rains to karachi.

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