Pakistan Weather Update & Monsoon alert (September 9 – September 16)

  • 180% above normal rains in Sindh

  • 134 people lost their lives!!

  • Fresh monsoon hitting South Pakistan

Review of last week’s weather

Very active monsoon season was seen during the last one week in Pakistan especially in Sindh province which has received much rainfall than any part of Pakistan this monsoon season. Upper parts of Pakistan mainly saw isolated to scattered rainfall activity. Temperatures remained low due to enhance monsoon activity while humidity remained high. Severe destruction has occurred in Sindh province due to 2nd and 5th monsoon spell.

Present conditions over Pakistan – (Only for September 9 to 10)

Precipitation and Temperature: Sept 9 - Sept 16

*Feeble western trough over Gilgit region, moving to Indian-held Kashmir.

*Low pressure over north-western Sindh and adjoining south-west Rajasthan.

*Low pressure at 998 mbar over Jharkhand, India.

Isolated to scattered thunder/rainfall may occur at few places of upper Pakistan in 48 hours, while the 5th monsoon spell has ended in Sindh, however there are chances of few isolated rain/showers in some upper and eastern parts of the province till 24 to 36 hours.

Monsoon News of Pakistan

Expected conditions over Pakistan in coming days

Monsoon is likely to continue till September 15 in Pakistan, beyond that the future of the monsoon is uncertain, however there are some indications that monsoon may continue till the end of the month at least in upper Pakistan. More over monsoon rainfall has been in Sindh at least 180% above than its normal, leaving the wettest areas of Punjab, Khyber and Kashmir far behind.

Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP)’s forecast

“Notice: This is the forecast from Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP), we are 60% confident with this prediction. There will be slight variations in our forecast as certain meteorological factors develop and fade as time passes by and these factors are too isolated to be noticed on numerical charts or models. According to various meteorological parameters this forecast has been made.”

  • This Forecast was revised on September 10 (Sindh only), may be updated on September 11
Pakistan Conditions: Outlook for September 12

Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP) successes fully predicted the 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th and 5th monsoon spell in Sindh. PWP on September 5 in its Monsoon of Pakistan page, forecasted about the possible 6th monsoon spell hitting Sindh. On September 9, PWP upgrades that forecast to “extremely high” for the 6th monsoon spell. This spell hit some parts of Sindh on September 10, other parts will be hit by September 11.

As of 10:00 pm PST September 9, Various models, numerical charts and other meteorological parameters observed by PWP indicate that;

*The low pressure over north-west Jharkhand is very likely to move westwards, as said by PWP on September 5. This low pressure will reach central India (Madya Pradesh) on September 11 and send fresh monsoon moisture to south-eastern Sindh on September 10/11, this system may enter Sindh on September 12/13 as of September 10.

*This spell may resemble the 2nd monsoon spell, but as of September 10 it is likely to be slightly week and small in duration than the 5th spell.

Following is the weather forecast that is expected;

Islamabad

Thunder/Rainfall may occur in 24 to 48 hours in the capital after that the weather is expected to calm down a bit and from September 11/September 12, monsoon winds will shift to upper parts of Pakistan and then Thunder/rainfall is expected, it will be light to moderate intensity and continue till few days with few gaps .

Mercury is expected in Islamabad;

  • 32 °C to 34 °C in Islamabad.

Punjab

In Northern Punjab: Lahore, Faisalabad, Murree, Rawalpindi, Sargodha, Sialkot and other adjoining cities. Rainfall with scattered moderate falls expected to continue till few days with few gaps, the monsoon flow from Sindh could reach north Punjab on September 12. Rain will be accompanied by thunder and fast winds.

Following is the temperature forecast for Northern Punjab;

  • 32 °C to 35 °C in Lahore.
  • 33°C to 38 °C in Faisalabad.
  • 28°C to 33°C in Murree.

In Southern Punjab: Bahawalpur, Multan, Rahim Yar Khan, D. G. Khan and other adjoining cities. Rainfall will be  moderate falls expected to continue till few days, the monsoon flow from Sindh could reach south Punjab on September 11 night. Rain will be accompanied by thunder and fast winds.

In Southern Punjab;

  • 34 °C to 36 °C in Multan.
  • 34 °C to 37 °C in  Bahawalpur.

Sindh

In Upper Sindh: Sukkur, Larkana, Jacobabad, Kashmore, Nawabshah and other adjoining  cities. The fresh monsoon winds will enter from September 11 and continue till 2 to 3 days, mainly till September 14. Rain will be accompanied by winds and thunder, it will be moderate in intensity with chances of isolated heavy falls.

Temperatures forecast for Upper Sindh.

  • 33 °C to 37 °C in Sukkur.
  • 34 °C to 38 °C also in Larkana.
  • 35 °C to 37 °C in Nawabshah.

In South-eastern Sindh: Mirpur khas, Umerkot, Tharparkar, Badin and Hyderabad. The rainfall could occur from September 11 till September 13 during this period heavy rainfall may occur in Eastern Sindh and till September 14. Rain will be accompanied by fast winds and thunder, it will be mostly heavy in intensity with chances of scattered heavy falls in some eastern parts.

Temperatures will also calm in south-eastern Sindh due to long spell of very heavy rainfall during last few days.

  • 32 °C to 33 °C in Hyderabad.

In coastal Sindh: Karachi, Thatta, Keti, Shah Bandar and other coastal localities. The 6th spell has reached some parts of Sindh on September 10. Rain will be accompanied by fast winds and thunder, it will be moderate in intensity in Karachi with chances of isolated heavy falls while chances of isolated to scattered heavy rainfall in Keti Bandar and Thatta. Chances of rainfall will persist will September 14, then a decrease is expected.

Due to frequent cloud over and fast winds the mercury in Karachi and other coastal cities has remained unchanged since July 1;

  • 31 °C to 34°C in Karachi.
This monsoon activity will continue till September 14 with peak intensity, after that the intensity will decrease. Monsoon may start to withdraw from some parts of the country.

Weather death-toll rises sharply due to rainfall in Sindh

At least 347 people have died in Pakistan since June 25 due to heavy rainfall, wind storm, heat waves, floods and other weather-related incidents. 134 people died in Sindh during the 11-day stormy rainfall in Sindh.

Poll of the week

Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP) wants to know;
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311 replies to “Pakistan Weather Update & Monsoon alert (September 9 – September 16)”

  4. yeah good rain since morning.. but what lies ahead for Karachi??? Accuweather is showing chnaces of local flooding in Karachi…… Kya bolte hoo sab???

  7. How much rain? Is it really raining for 16hours as people are suggesting…whether moderate or heavy?

    and is it still raining in any part of the city?

  9. yeah light to moderate rain for more than 14 hours.. it became quite heavy again half an hour ago for 10 minutes and now again it is light to moderate..
    The best thing of this weather system is that u can sense the steadiness and calmness of rain.. there is no thunder no lightning.. this is simple rain.. infact very steady rain.. the one we used to see in Movies…
    its still raining here at University road with moderaate to light intesity though.

    SHould we expect some heavy spells today?? what do you people say? whats ur read of this situation??

    KM come on mate! we need updates.

  12. in the end i have seen very heavy rain,should be the best rain of the year specially the one at midnight.now i am satisfied.my area got 105 mm at the moment.

  13. Why my comments are not appearing? I have been commenting for hours and i can’t see any of my comments…weird.

    @KM, have you start moderating your blog 😉

  14. Wowo…now its there.

    Guys, please update about the amount of rain. Is it still continuing? Did the rain stopped for sometime or is it really really non-stop?

  16. ok i get it…It is geniuses of “wordpress”. In order to avoid spam comments they have initialized a timer or something that no user can comment in quick succession…again this is my guess 🙂

    1. Walaikum assalam Wasi – There are still chances of rainfall in Mirpur Khas till September 14 morning, after that a significant decrease expected in the level of moisture..

  33. yaar mere ghar ka garden doob gaya hai 😦 ab agr phir se baarish hogi tou ghar k andar paani ajayega 😦

  37. chalo bharish to huwi …………….lets wait for next year……… but good monsoon season for sindh bye bye monsoon 😦

  43. Well i was expecting some showers today but it tutns out nothing is in store for Karachi…140mm is more than enough for Karachites for a year :).

  44. @Karachi metro…!!!
    any other type of cyclone or rain expected in karachi…!!! will there be rain from la-lina….!!!! or will there be dry season from now onwards…!!!
    Rply quicK… wht about showers today…!!will there be rain !

    1. isolated showers have occurred in some parts of Khi today…every day the number of moisture will decrease..No cyclone forming conditions…Weak La-Nina has returned but the main thing is that the SW monsoon is coming to an end so no affect possible..Its time for the monsoon to go now…

  45. OMG so many questions at once =p

    Well, this is the last day of monsoon for sure.

    No monsoon rain expected now but if a cyclone forms and comes to Sindh, then we will surely get HEAVY RAINS again 😀

  53. Karachi’s Current situation: No Rain no Target killing.Looks like every thing and everyone is calm now.. Any ways Now it Looks like the old Karachi 🙂

  54. Babar Bhai how will you manage to keep your Blog Alive? as the Monsoon is end now :/… I wish you post those articles which have some potential…. 🙂

  55. PWP Team and Babar Bhai worked at their best to provide each and every info from the start of the Monsoon 2011… and No doubt Wajaht and Ali bhai did their best either.. Thank you very much to all of you for providing so much knowledge about weather and Monsoon it really has increased my Knowledge bank… Thank you again to everyone ♥ 🙂

  56. ‎:/ had enough fun all summer,time for serious studies now… so to my all friends i will be seen once in a blue moon from now onwards… take care Love you all 🙂

  62. Babar bhai sindh m khas kar k South-eastern Sindh m septembar m koi our spell aany kay chances hein ya nahi???

  67. what a turn around in this monsoon season,in the end of july 2011 we were comparing this with monsoon 2008 or worst and only 7 mm of rain was occured but in the end it gave above normal rains for karachi.

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