Total collapse of Monsoon expected in July?

“This is the fourth article related to the monsoon season of 2012 and it will be followed by many more articles”

Nightmare for some farmers?

Monsoon: Typical day of Farmers

As the monsoon season nears in, people in Pakistan are being made to believe that record-breaking flash floods are likely to grip the country for the third consecutive time. The National Disaster Management Agency (NDMA) has alerted every province in the country. The following is what NDMA has said on May 17;

“Sindh and Punjab had been asked to allocate Rs5 billion each for disaster preparedness and Balochistan and Khyber had been advised to set aside Rs3 billion each. Similarly, Azad Kashmir has been asked to earmark Rs2 billion and Gilgit-Baltistan and Fata Rs1 million each. Federal government had also been advised to keep Rs5 billion for emergency situation.”

Although NDMA has asked the government to remain cautious during the next three months but it would have been better if they would have mentioned in their statement that what would lead to such vigorous weather over the country. The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecasted yet another normal monsoon season in the Indian sub-continent meaning that Indian continent would see good monsoon rainfall for another third year starting from 2010.

Whats happening right now?

Karachi beach during a monsoon season

The La-Nina conditions have dissipated and El-Nino Southern Oscillation-neutral condition are prevailing. Why PWP fears the collapse of monsoon because there is a possibility of emergence of an El-Nino condition. The El-Nino may emerge during the month of either July or August. The forecast of six models that PWP showed its followers on February 27, shows that three of them was right on spot, two were pro-La Nina while one of them changed its forecast.

According to the Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology that now say that El-Nino is ‘very’ likely to develop by July. That makes four models to agree that El-Nino is coming and it only leaves IMD who is expecting a friendly atmosphere for monsoon, make no mistake! In 2009, the IMD believed that a normal monsoon season would occur but in reality India was slapped by the worst drought since 1970s, having a sharp dent on its rising economy. Similar was the story in 2002 and 2004.

El-Nino: More Frequent, Bigger and More Stronger!

Since the last 98 years, scientists estimate that there have been 23 El-Nino and 15 La-Nina. The four strongest El-Nino have occurred since 1980s in which the 1998’s El-Nino was a world-wide disaster. According National Geographic, it had more energy than a million Hiroshima bombs. Major El-Nino occurred in 1982-83 and 1997 that dissipated by early 2003. Short El-Nino also occurred in 2009.

NASA and NOAA predicts that with each passing century, El-Nino is becoming more frequent, bigger and more stronger.

Our View on the upcoming season

Advancement of monsoon

Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP) had forecasted on April 4 that monsoon 2012 would be near normal to below normal as a whole over the sub-continent but isolated places might experience some above normal rainfall that includes West Bengal, Jharkhand, Assam, Utter Pradesh, Madya Pradesh and parts of Bangladesh. It is likely that monsoon rainfalls may develop rapidly during the onset of the season but as summer progresses further a decrease in the overall coverage of rainfall could occur. August and September, are the two months in which decrease in the rainfall activity is expected.

The north-western parts of India, northern Pakistan and Sri Lanka might also experience below normal rainfall but changing atmospheric condition would cause an increase in the activity of westerlies over these areas. Southern parts of Pakistan, Indian state of Gujarat and other surrounding areas are also expected to experience less than normal downpours. However an event of isolated flash flooding/urban flooding (happens every year) can never be ruled out. Monsoon might start normally at first later giving way to El-Nino conditions.

Monsoon Special articles for 2012

You can read special monsoon article by Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP), here;


12 replies to “Total collapse of Monsoon expected in July?

  1. salaam babar bhai! 🙂 how have you been?
    Heard there was a tropical cyclone forming in the arabian sea ?

  2. salam can some one tell me how will be monsoon in sindh as whole experiencing last year wirst rain fall

  3. Dear all do u think that sudden change in the climate of pakistan is natural or something nonsence is occuring like 22 dec 2012? All this is wrong. The real thing which disturbed all this (weather) is war in the northern pakistan areas. The shelling, bombs, missiles, and rockets shakes not only the glaciours of snow on the mountains but also disturbs the natural weather by high sounds of the bombs etc. Which brings physical and sound pollutions to the whole area. And if at one spot these pollution occours, it disturbs its near by weather and after this another nearby area and so on and so on. Which in result disturbs the near by countries and so on and so on. Results are clear war is not allowed nor bombing experiments. Dear all do u think that war in pakistan and afghanistan is needed after ussamas assasination? Why afghanistan and pakistans pushtoon are targeted? As science say action reation r equal. If some one goes to usa or any part of the world and beat somebody or give slap to him he will obviously react. I think all this the taliban or mujahideen these r the outcome of negligence of the world and soviet union and usa. And upto some extent pakistan also. Now we all r repeating the same mistake bringing peace by force. Usa is ruining the humanity. Making afghan pakistan area as not a battle field but game battle field experiencing new types of weapons. Killing innocent peoples men women and children, and majority of them are pathans or pushtoons. Sorry i,ve forgot this forum is of weather. So science is responsible and also usa and pak army is responsible for changing the weather of the world.

  4. pls give details of floods and rains coming this monsoon and which parts of the country is going to be affected

  5. Karachi Metro Sir: I saw in many weather models and websites that there is some big flood or rain activity going to Hit Pakistan in July Month. Specialy in Punjab and Sindh.So Can you Clear me that in details that what will going to Happend in Country in July Month?

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