“This is the fourth article related to the monsoon season of 2012 and it will be followed by many more articles”

Nightmare for some farmers?

As the monsoon season nears in, people in Pakistan are being made to believe that record-breaking flash floods are likely to grip the country for the third consecutive time. The National Disaster Management Agency (NDMA) has alerted every province in the country. The following is what NDMA has said on May 17;

“Sindh and Punjab had been asked to allocate Rs5 billion each for disaster preparedness and Balochistan and Khyber had been advised to set aside Rs3 billion each. Similarly, Azad Kashmir has been asked to earmark Rs2 billion and Gilgit-Baltistan and Fata Rs1 million each. Federal government had also been advised to keep Rs5 billion for emergency situation.”

Although NDMA has asked the government to remain cautious during the next three months but it would have been better if they would have mentioned in their statement that what would lead to such vigorous weather over the country. The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecasted yet another normal monsoon season in the Indian sub-continent meaning that Indian continent would see good monsoon rainfall for another third year starting from 2010.

Whats happening right now?

The La-Nina conditions have dissipated and El-Nino Southern Oscillation-neutral condition are prevailing. Why PWP fears the collapse of monsoon because there is a possibility of emergence of an El-Nino condition. The El-Nino may emerge during the month of either July or August. The forecast of six models that PWP showed its followers on February 27, shows that three of them was right on spot, two were pro-La Nina while one of them changed its forecast.

According to the Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology that now say that El-Nino is ‘very’ likely to develop by July. That makes four models to agree that El-Nino is coming and it only leaves IMD who is expecting a friendly atmosphere for monsoon, make no mistake! In 2009, the IMD believed that a normal monsoon season would occur but in reality India was slapped by the worst drought since 1970s, having a sharp dent on its rising economy. Similar was the story in 2002 and 2004.

El-Nino: More Frequent, Bigger and More Stronger!

Since the last 98 years, scientists estimate that there have been 23 El-Nino and 15 La-Nina. The four strongest El-Nino have occurred since 1980s in which the 1998’s El-Nino was a world-wide disaster. According National Geographic, it had more energy than a million Hiroshima bombs. Major El-Nino occurred in 1982-83 and 1997 that dissipated by early 2003. Short El-Nino also occurred in 2009.

NASA and NOAA predicts that with each passing century, El-Nino is becoming more frequent, bigger and more stronger.

Our View on the upcoming season

Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP) had forecasted on April 4 that monsoon 2012 would be near normal to below normal as a whole over the sub-continent but isolated places might experience some above normal rainfall that includes West Bengal, Jharkhand, Assam, Utter Pradesh, Madya Pradesh and parts of Bangladesh. It is likely that monsoon rainfalls may develop rapidly during the onset of the season but as summer progresses further a decrease in the overall coverage of rainfall could occur. August and September, are the two months in which decrease in the rainfall activity is expected.

The north-western parts of India, northern Pakistan and Sri Lanka might also experience below normal rainfall but changing atmospheric condition would cause an increase in the activity of westerlies over these areas. Southern parts of Pakistan, Indian state of Gujarat and other surrounding areas are also expected to experience less than normal downpours. However an event of isolated flash flooding/urban flooding (happens every year) can never be ruled out. Monsoon might start normally at first later giving way to El-Nino conditions.

Monsoon Special articles for 2012

You can read special monsoon article by Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP), here;

• Let it be La-Nina or maybe El-Nino? – Part I
• Monsoon 2012 – What will happen in Pakistan? – Part II
• Pollute the Arabian sea for stronger Hurricanes before the Monsoon season! – Part III
• Total collapse of Monsoon expected in July? – Part IV
• Monsoon advancing into Pakistan: All stages set! – Part V
• El-Nino comeback: Monsoon collapses, Pakistan going into drought! – Part VI

TO BE CONTINUED……