Pakistan Weather Update & Monsoon Alert (June 9 – June 22)

• End of Western disturbance?

• Heat wave developing!

• Karachi’s Pre-monsoon activity?

As June starts the weather over the sub-continent has changed rapidly with each passing day the westerlies are losing strength while easterlies are taking shape. Though Pakistan has been under the grip of western systems along with a severe heat wave so was India whose central parts experienced a sweating heat wave but due to the recent cooling by western disturbance 09, the heat wave has sub-sided to some extent.

The cooling pattern like always had impacted the monsoonal development. Some of the recent cooling western systems;

• Western Disturbance 07  entered the country on May 24, dust storms occurred in Rawalpindi and Islamabad with winds of 90 km/h and 70 km/h respectively. Lightening killed one person in Peshawar. Dust storm also occurred in Badin on May 25. WD 07 moved away on May 27,
• Western Disturbance 08 entered Pakistan on May 30 and caused a dust storm to struck the north-western city of Peshawar killing 3 people and injuring 20 people. It moved away on June 1.
• Western Disturbance 09 entered on June 4, it caused a thunderstorm to form over north-central Pakistan that generated a strong dust storm in Peshawar, Queeta, Islamabad, Lahore, Muzaffargarh, Multan, Sargodha and many other cities of upper parts. The winds reached 82 km/h in Islamabad while 70 km/h in Lahore that killed some 10 people in the city especially Peshawar where red dust storm at a speed of 80 km/h killed 3 people. It moved away on June 9. Upper air cyclonic circulations also formed on June 5 over south Punjab.

What will happen now?

Dry weather is expected to prevail till few days in the northern areas as no western disturbance is forming that could have an immediate impact however due to moisture coming from the Arabian sea, stray thunderclouds could form that can bring sudden dust storms.

During the last days of coming week high temperatures could spread over a large area of the southern parts of the country. The temperatures are high even right now but they are mostly isolated. Temperature may remain around 47°C – 48°C in upper parts of Sindh. Islamabad may again touch 40s°C while Karachi would remain calm at 37 – 38°C.

SW monsoon in India

Pakistan – Waiting game begins

Tropical activity in the Bay of Bengal

Monsoon in Kerala

Monsoon hit the Indian state of Kerala on June 4, it was only possible due to the upper air cyclonic circulations that formed near Somalia during the last week of May. Although the normal date for monsoon to hit Kerala was June 1 but Indian Meteorological Department has said that there is no cause of worry as little delay does not cause any harm. Heavy downpours may occur in Kerala coast during the coming mid-week, it is worth noting that since 2006, monsoon has always hit Kerala before June 1.

Monsoon advancing further into India!

On the western coast of India, monsoon has advanced into Ka rnataka and Goa. Monsoon also advanced into coastal Konkan and south-central parts of Maharashtra on June 6. Mumbai has been receiving pre-monsoon showers since the last three days and there is some chance that monsoon might be declared in Mumbai on June 10 (normal date). Heavy pre-monsoon showers continues to lash southern Gujarat, on June 8 night PWP reported the dissipation of a thundercloud over the coast of Gujarat. Light pre-monsoon showers also occurred in Ahmedabad since last three days. There are chances that monsoon may land in the Indian state of Gujarat on June 15.

According to Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP) there were chances for development of a cyclonic circulations in the Bay of Bengal and as forecasted by PWP, circulations formed in the eastcentral Bay of Bengal on June 8. It will intensify further during the coming week and after that a stable track would come forward. If it moves in a NNE direction then that would definetly hamper the monsoon progress but if the tropical low pressure moves towards India then monsoon would advance further into central parts of the country.

What is the situation of Pakistan? 

The country has to wait for sometime till it gets it’s share of rain, although the recent summer rainfall that occurred in the northern and central Pakistan was due to the weak moisture coming from the Arabian sea but helped the western disturbance 09 to gain intensity. During the coming week (June 10 – June 16) there does not seem to be any chance of pre-monsoon showers in either the northern nor the central parts. But what about the southern parts?

Cloud’s love for Karachi!

The south-western city of Karachi was experiencing an overcast weather during the last few days with humid conditions. What was the reason? – Moisture coming from the Arabian sea! During the coming week such activity could again be triggered. As for the monsoon season, there are some hints that the trough present over western coast of India may extend into Gujarat coast during the second last week of June and moisture incursion would take place thus bringing some pre-monsoon drizzle to coastal and south-eastern Sindh.

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