Western winds in Punjab!
High temperatures coming?
Drizzles in Karachi!
The country is now entering the annual monsoon season (July) but the northern and few adjoining central parts are under the influence of westerlies that continue to affect the areas. The latest example came from western disturbance ’11’ (Numbered by PWP), it wrecked havoc in northern Afghanistan on June 22 with series of heavy rainfall and flash floods. WD ’11′ killed 37 people in Afghanistan and destroyed 100s of home. Upon entering Pakistan, it lost much of its intensity and most precipitation that occurred in northern area was due to moisture from Arabian sea. On June 24, it entered Pakistan and brought strong winds in Islamabad, Lahore, Peshawar and other northern cities with little to no precipitation. As of June 25, the western disturbance is situated over northern Pakistan.
In the month of June, at least three western disturbance approached the country with minimal level of rain but accompained by strong dust storms.
Non-Monsoon: What is more to come?
Western disturbance ’11’ is likely to affect the northern areas for further 48 hours before influencing Indian Kashmir. Till June 28, there are chances of isolated showers with spotty moderate falls in the northern areas including Islamabad and Peshawar where evening strong winds could occur. The temperatures have dropped in these areas due to presence of a cooling affect but during the last days of June temperatures are expected to rise well beyond 41°C in Islamabad and Lahore.
Looking towards the lower parts of the country, central and southern parts (including south-eastern Sindh) would remain dry and hot (very hot during the last days of June). Temperature in Multan and surrounding cities could reach 45°C.
Karachi: Winds, clouds and drizzle!
Coastal parts of Sindh that is Karachi, Keti Bandar and Thatta would remain under the influence of the moisture from the Arabian sea that would keep the skies cloudy with sunny intervals. Temperature in Karachi is expected to remain around 33°C – 35°C with chances of sprinkles till the middle of this week. A great week for summer vacations!
July: Monsoon’s future looks dark?
Talim – The enemy of India!
No monsoon in Pakistan yet!
Monsoon development in India
As forecasted by PWP on June 21 that widespread rainfall could occur during the last days of June/first week of July in the north-eastern states of India, this is what is happening. Intense monsoon activity is being observed over the eastern parts of India where near drowning rain is lashing the cities in just 24 hours. NDTV has reported that Cherrapunji in Assam has recorded 460 mm rain on June 25.
The big picture is that the monsoon is a total mess with the continuous advancement of westerlies and formation of tropical storms in the Pacific ocean that is Guchol and Talim. Both the typhoons nearly destroyed the monsoon presence in the Arabian sea branch and the Bay of Bengal. On June 18, half of India was covered with the clouds of monsoon, the situation that deteoriated radily after cyclonic activity in the western Pacific ocean. The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) has also lowered their monsoon forecast in their second press release keeping the brewing atmospheric conditions in mind. However in coming weeks monsoon could reach its heights in July.
Tropical storm ‘Talim’ shocked the monsoon
Speaking of Talim, does any one remember the expected low pressure area? Two low pressure systems were forecasted to form in the Bay of Bengal in the month of June. The first one didnt happen because of the formation of a tropical storm Talim while the second one looks is in danger as the main low pressure area in the south China sea has attracted all the moisture from the Bay.
The much-awaited low pressure is very important for the advancement of monsoon further into western India and much of Pakistan.
Monsoon development in Pakistan
Pre-monsoon activity started in south-eastern Sindh from June 12 and lasted till June 15 with some showers in between. Moderate showers occurred in these parts on June 13;
- Mithi got 28 mm.
- Chachro got 24 mm.
- Diplo got 6 mm.
After June 15, no area of Pakistan has experienced any pre-monsoon activity. The recent rains in Punjab have been termed by the Pakistan’s National Met Office as pre-monsoon rain in reality these showers are a direct result of westerlies that have been dominating the western sub-continent for the last few days.
Is Monsoon near Pakistan?
South-eastern Sindh could experience another pre-monsoon activity during the last days of June while no such activity is expected in the northern areas in Punjab. The much awaited low pressure is still on cards that is expected now to form during the first week of July and if it becomes a reality then monsoon could start during the late first/early second week of July in the northern areas of Pakistan. Future of Pakistan’s monsoon hugely depends upon the behavior of monsoon developments especially this week and next week. All eyes on Bay of Bengal!
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Article updated on July 3
Pakistan Weather Update & Monsoon Alert (July 3 – July 9)
Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP) forecasted on June 25 monsoon entering the northern parts of the country during the late first week of July. On July 1, PWP told that the chances of monsoon hitting the country are “moderate”, the Portal maintains the chances to “moderate”. Moisture from central India would penetrate into different parts of the country from July 5 as the Upper air cyclonic circulations in the Bay of Bengal would move westwards. UAC in the Arabian sea would also help drag the eastern winds into north-western India.
The federal capital of Islamabad is expected to receive first monsoon showers of the year from July 6/July 7 that would last till July 10/July 11 with intervals. The other northern cities that is Lahore, Rawalpindi, Peshawar, Murree and other adjoining cities are also expected to get monsoon showers during the same period. The rain will be mostly stable with isolated moderate falls.
There are slim chances of some pre-monsoon rain in the central cities comprising of Multan and other adjoining cities from July 8 night till July 10 morning. The rain is likely to be mostly light. However the rain behavior here matches that of pre-monsoon activity and not that of the actual rain.
There are some chances of pre-monsoon showers in Karachi, Thatta, Badin, Tharparkar, Umerkot, Mirpur Khas, Nawabshah and Hyderabad during late this week from July 6 before the actual monsoon can start that is after July 9. Other parts of Sindh are expected to witness passing clouds. The rain may be light with chances of moderate falls in south-eastern parts.
PWP is 65% confident with this forecast.
Monsoon eyes New Delhi
Across the border, New Delhi that has been experiencing drought-like monsoon season. It could witness pre-monsoon showers in next 12 to 24 hours before witnessing the actual monsoon that may coincide with Islamabad. Monsoon should have arrived in New Delhi days ago. Are you ready for the monsoon season?