Monsoon of Pakistan


2021 Monsoon of Pakistan

Monsoon daily monthly updates

Date of Issue – August 4

⏺BOB-03 has stalled over Madya Pradesh and since it hasn’t moved into East Rajasthan and adjoining Gujarat, below average temperatures and cloudy weather continues in #Karachi due to strong southerly wind. Chances of third monsoon spell reduced from 40% to 5% in SE Sindh due to BOB-03’s stall. While no chances of light rain from BOB-03 in #Karachi now as the system would continue to linger over central India. No system in sight for South for the next many days!
⏺North can witness 2 to 3 more spells of rains in August. Weak to moderate easterlies present.
⏺PWP upgrades monsoon withdrawal around/during the last week of August from 45% to 55%. A void can appear due to high pressure build-up over much of Pakistan and western India. Monsoon moisture will remain confined over North Pakistan, North India, NE India, Southern Peninsula, West coast of India and Bangladesh. Due to relatively active conditions over Indian west coast, coast of Pakistan especially south Sindh will remain under the grip of moisture-laden winds from the Arabian Sea.


Date of Issue – July 29

⏺ Third Monsoon Spell in Sindh (Probability at 40% – August 5/August 6, +,-1 day error)
Strong low pressure BOB-03 persists over NW Bay of Bengal, it is the current season’s most powerful low pressure that can drop 100 mm to 350 mm in few hours in its path in India. It is slowly moving in a WNW direction and its last destination is western Madya Pradesh and adjoining Rajasthan and Gujarat.
The system will not affect South Pakistan but its weak monsoon currents ‘can’ penetrate. Moisture levels will be at low to medium level in SE Sindh and adjoining parts. Therefore, there are chances (40%) of isolated moderate to isolated heavy rain in SE Sindh. In the coming week, the skies will start to clear up to an extent and very humid weather can prevail in Karachi. Due to this system, there are chances (25%) of light rain in Karachi on August 5/August 6 (+,-1 day error).
⏺Thoughts on the ‘Outlook of the Remaining Monsoon’
PWP is confident about its ‘Outlook of the remaining Monsoon season’ issued on July 27. Looking at a normal withdrawal, just like a normal onset was predicted since we returned back! Overall, this monsoon is normal, few above normal events witnessed (as stated in June 4 article). Average July’s rain in Karachi is 60 mm (revised by GoP), and recorded rain in this year’s monsoon is very well within/around that range. However, we were expecting more ‘normal’ widespread spells in the South in August (1 to 2 spells). Sadly, it doesn’t look like it due to sudden changing of SST.

Date of Issue – July 27

Largely this will be a normal monsoon as stated on June 4 with few above normal events in isolated areas. 1st, 2nd &  3rd Monsoon Spell in North and 1st and 2nd Monsoon spell in Sindh have gone in line with the prediction of PWP except for few instance which are common in meteorology.


Indian 2021 IOD

⏺ Outlook of the remaining Monsoon

Active Monsoon conditions to continue through-out the remaining of July in North. The North can expect a 4th and 5th Monsoon spell in the month of August. Low confidence on a 6th spell.

Very strong southerly winds will persist for 1.5/2  weeks in the South. Monsoon Axis will remain over North and adjoining central Pakistan. Australian Met Office has declared -IOD (above chart is by Bureau of Meteorology), awaiting PR from other international weather. PWP was expecting that a trend closer to +IOD to continue because of the sudden warming that was witnessed in the month of April, May and June which lead to the initial active conditions in the South. However, rather than gradual, a trend towards sudden cooling continues off the coast of east Africa. Due to the ‘sudden cooling’ and lack of circulations over the Arabian Sea, monsoon activity expected to remain weak over South Pakistan. There is a 45% chance of monsoon withdrawal during or around the last week of August in Pakistan, a normal withdrawal is expected just like a normal onset was predicted. 

⏺ 3rd Monsoon spell in the South

A strong low pressure BOB-03 is present over NW Bay of Bengal, it is expected to move in WNW direction, due to the expected formation of a circulation over Rajasthan and adjoining South Punjab, few thunderclouds can form near SE Sindh during the end of the 1st week of August with chances of isolated moderate to heavy downpour (similar to the 2nd monsoon spell).

Date of Issue – July 19

Authorities in upper Pakistan should remain on alert through-out July

Two Bay of Bengal systems expected!

𝐄𝐱𝐭𝐫𝐚𝐜𝐭 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝐉𝐮𝐥𝐲 𝟏𝟕 𝐮𝐩𝐝𝐚𝐭𝐞, “A fresh low pressure is expected to form in the Bay of Bengal around the mid of coming week. Its track is uncertain currently. Some (chances at 35 to 40%) isolated to scattered thunderstorms can form over SE Sindh during the end of the coming week. Similar intensity to the 2nd monsoon spell (3rd monsoon spell) can hit upper Pakistan during the last week of July, currently its probability of materializing is at 50%.”
⏺ 𝟐𝐧𝐝 𝐌𝐨𝐧𝐬𝐨𝐨𝐧 𝐬𝐩𝐞𝐥𝐥 𝐢𝐧 𝐍𝐨𝐫𝐭𝐡 (𝐉𝐮𝐥𝐲 𝟏𝟗 – 𝐉𝐮𝐥𝐲 𝟐𝟏, -𝟏 𝐝𝐚𝐲/+𝟏 𝐝𝐚𝐲 𝐞𝐫𝐫𝐨𝐫):
The forecast is valid, for more check here.
⏺ 𝐎𝐩𝐢𝐧𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐨𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐮𝐩𝐝𝐚𝐭𝐞 𝐚𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐉𝐮𝐥𝐲 𝟏𝟗 – 𝟐𝐧𝐝 𝐌𝐨𝐧𝐬𝐨𝐨𝐧 𝐬𝐩𝐞𝐥𝐥 𝐢𝐧 𝐒𝐨𝐮𝐭𝐡:
Monsoon axis will remain titled towards north, can slightly shift towards central parts. Since currently there is no prospect of any circulation developing in the Arabian Sea which creates a corridor, the upcoming Bay of Bengal system (BoB-02) might not move directly towards #Karachi. Strong to very strong southerly wind can also keep the system away from the south-western coast of Sindh. Due to the ‘expected’ formation of another circulation over Rajasthan and adjoining Gujarat, some (chances at 35% to 40%) thunderclouds can form over SE Sindh during the end of this week/early last week of July. SE Sindh can get isolated heavy downpour during this period. Few isolated thunderclouds can form near Karachi as well (as moisture will be present in the neighborhood) leading to light to moderate rain (chance 20% to 35% so far). A clear picture once the low actually forms and moves into India.
⏺ 𝟑𝐫𝐝 𝐌𝐨𝐧𝐬𝐨𝐨𝐧 𝐒𝐩𝐞𝐥𝐥 𝐢𝐧 𝐍𝐨𝐫𝐭𝐡
PWP upgrades the 3rd monsoon spell hitting upper Pakistan during the last week of July from 50% to 65%. In fact, BoB low (BoB-02) can be absorbed or weakened by the 3rd Monsoon spell as strong easterlies will move into upper Pakistan during the last week of July. (It was upgraded to 95% on July 23)
⏺𝐁𝐚𝐲 𝐨𝐟 𝐁𝐞𝐧𝐠𝐚𝐥 𝐭𝐨 𝐬𝐩𝐢𝐧 𝐚𝐧𝐨𝐭𝐡𝐞𝐫 𝐬𝐲𝐬𝐭𝐞𝐦
A strong monsoon low pressure (BoB-03) is also expected to form during the end of July.


Date of Issue – July 17 – July 24

Watch for flash and urban flooding in the coming week in upper Pakistan | Significant rain cannot be ruled out!

Monsoon axis after shifting towards far south due to the presence of a strong Arabian sea weather system (it has dissipated) is expected to return to the northern parts.

Two significant circulations can form in the coming days, one over NW India near New Delhi and other over KPK & adjoining northern Punjab. The Indian circulation will be sending moisture (strong easterlies) to its counter-part in Pakistan. The circulation in upper Pakistan can move from West to East due to westerlies.

  • Probability at 85% – Under the influence of both these weather systems, widespread rain with heavy to very heavy rain  (some areas can experience extremely heavy rain) in Islamabad, northern & NE Punjab, central & adjoining south KPK and Azad Kashmir (Islamabad, Rawalpindi, Muzaffarabad, Jhelum, Sialkot, Gujranwala, Chakwal, Mianwali, Sargodha, Dera Ismail Khan, Peshawar, Lahore and adjoining cities do fall under these areas) from July 19 till July 21 (-1/+1 day error). Scattered to widespread thunderstorms with heavy to chances of very heavy rain can also affect central Punjab (Faisalabad) during this period.
  • Probability at 55% – Isolated to scattered thunderstorms with chances of heavy rain can affect south Punjab as well.
  • Few stray thunderclouds (probability at 35%) can also cross into upper Sindh during mid of coming week. Chances of drizzle/sharp showers in Karachi.

Date of Issue – July 14

NE Punjab, upper Pakistan and Karachi witnessed Monsoon onset during the timeframe given by PWP

Widespread rains predicted in Sindh including Karachi after July 14, due to city’s infrastructure watch for urban flooding!

 Chances of scattered to widespread rain in Karachi (some heavy) on July 15/July 16.

On July 14, South of Karachi got torrential rain along with stormy winds though PWP had predicted the activity to take place on July 13 but it got delayed for 21 to 24 hours. The Portal observed similar weather patterns on July 17, 2020 and July 13/14 2021.

As stated on July 5, “Hit or miss chances are from July 10 to July 13/July 14 (+2, -1 day error). Around and Post July 14, Low pressure (Bay of Bengal) can be nearby Sindh which can cause scattered to widespread rain in Sindh including Karachi.”

  • The Arabian Sea system is absorbing the moisture from the Bay of Bengal low pressure (little change in dynamics), the ARB system is expected to either move towards the coast of Oman or dissipate near Makran coast in Pakistan. Its associated thunderstorms are towards the south of the low pressure that is over the open waters of Arabian sea.
  • The Bay of Bengal system is over east-central India and due to the Arabian Sea system, the moisture from BoB system is very likely to penetrate Karachi after July 14 (forecast issued on July 5 remains valid). 

Date of Issue – July 5 – July 12

From a sluggish start to vigorous revival, monsoon all set to make a splash!

With onset approaching, Widespread monsoon rains expected in NE Punjab and upper Pakistan!

Low pressure will also form in the Bay of Bengal, eyeing Karachi? 

There was a 55% possibility of monsoon onset during the first week of July (July 2/July 3/July 4), scattered light to moderate intensity rain did occur in NE Punjab and adjoining upper Pakistan during that period. The influence of a western disturbance was quite strong as some very strong winds were reported usually associated with western thundercloud. Very weak easterlies were observed over Pak-India border near Lahore. The reported activity does not meet the guidelines for monsoon hence are concluded as pre-monsoon.

A low pressure area (weather system) is expected to form in the Bay of Bengal during the end of 2nd week/early third week. As mentioned on June 20 (upgraded on June 25) by PWP, the 2nd week of July has a very high possibility (70% to 75%) of monsoon onset. Due to the similar runs by GFS and ECMWF, for the first time this year ‘strong’ easterlies will penetrate NE Punjab and and adjoining upper Pakistan (KPK and Azad Kashmir) by the end of 2nd week and widespread heavy thunderstorms can be nearby these areas by July 10 to July 13/July 14 (+2, -1 day error). During the same period, due to a presence of weak westerly and formation of a circulation over central Pakistan, few thunderclouds can also move into central an adjoining southern areas (NE Balochistan, South Punjab and adjoining upper Sindh) of the country with hit-or-miss chances of thunder rain (55% to 60%). We are expecting an official confirmation by the Government of Pakistan for monsoon onset and a weather advisory in next few days regarding it.

The low pressure is expected to move towards central India in a WSW direction due to the atmospheric pressure dropping near Gujarat. There is a possibility that it can cause scattered to widespread rain in Sindh including Karachi during the third week of July. Given such scenario, the Portal upgrades monsoon hitting Karachi around the third week (July 10 to July 17) of July from 45% to 58%.

Brief update on July 6 for Sindh

Hit or miss chances are from July 10 to July 13/July 14 (+2, -1 day error). Around and Post July 14, Low pressure can be nearby Sindh which can cause scattered to widespread rain in Sindh including Karachi.


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History of Climate of Pakistan

Following are the main factors that influence the weather over Pakistan.

  • Western Disturbances mostly occur during the winter months.
  • Fog occurs during the winter season and remains for weeks in upper Sindh, central Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Punjab.
  • Southwest Monsoon occurs in summer from the month of June till September in the country.
  • Cyclones in Pakistan usually form during the summer months from late April till June and then from late September till November. They affect the coastal localities of the country.
  • Dust storms occur during summer months with peak in May and June, They are locally known as Andhi. These dust storms are quite violent. 
  • Heat waves occur during May and June, especially in southern Punjab, central Balochistan and interior Sindh.
  • Continental air prevails during the period when there is no precipitation in the country.
  • Drought in Pakistan is an on and off phenomenon in the country.
  • Tsunami are rare, but this tsunami is the deadliest one yet.
  • Floods in Pakistan occur every year during monsoon season thousand people die in Pakistan as well as South Asia due to the massive floods.
  • Earthquakes in Pakistan  are the deadliest form of disaster in the country.
  • Worst Natural Disasters of Pakistan is the list of all the disasters in the country.