Fresh western winds returning!
More rainfall in Punjab?
Poor monsoon performance!
During the first two weeks of July, the country received mostly moderate rainfall that was accompanied by thunder/lightening and fast winds. Keeping the past intensity of ‘monsoon’ rains in mind, the recent rainfalls had a poor strength. The heaviest rainfall that occurred during the first monsoon spell in the country was 76 mm in D.I Khan while the heaviest during the second monsoon spell was 78 mm in Sahiwal.
Pakistan Weather Outlook
*An upper air cyclonic circulations may form in the Bay of Bengal late this week.
*Western Disturbance ’14’ could affect the northern parts of the country from July 20.
Below normal rains in India!
Another spell in Pakistan
Monsoon advancing into Karachi?
Worst rainfall in India since 2009
There is no doubt that this year the monsoon has played hide and seek. The rainy winds have either remained confined to eastern India or the Himalayas due to the western trough. According to the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD), the seasonal deficiency is -21%. While the most crucial rainy month, July has -12%.
Indian states like Gujarat, eastern Rajasthan, Haryana and Punjab have missed out much of rains. The reason? A lull in the Bay of Bengal. However due to the ‘expected’ formation of a weather system in the Bay of Bengal, conditions would again improve from July 20 as the system would move towards central India and intensify further on July 21/July 22.
Future of rains in Pakistan
Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP) forecasts the third monsoon spell hitting the northern parts of the country from July 19/July 20 that would continue till two to three days. While during the same period, the second monsoon spell in central parts (south Punjab) could start. Hence PWP forecasts the third and second monsoon spell hitting the northern and central parts respectively to ‘high’.
The federal capital of Islamabad is expected to receive it’s third monsoon showers of the year from July 19/July 20 that would last till two to three days. The other northern cities that is Lahore, Rawalpindi, Peshawar, Abbottabad, Murree and other adjoining cities are also expected to get monsoon showers during the same period. The rain will be mostly moderate with isolated heavy falls. North-eastern Punjab could also get isolated heavy falls during this week (starting of third spell).
Frequent rainfall is expected near the Azad Kashmir and adjoining Khyber province.
Rainfall is also expected in south Punjab including Multan during the same period. Rainfall would be stable with scattered moderate falls.
Mostly dry weather is expected in this part however there are some chances drizzle/isolated showers in Karachi, Thatta, Badin, Tharparkar, Umerkot, Mirpur Khas, Nawabshah and Hyderabad during late last week of July. High and mid-level clouds could appear in Mirpur Khar and Tharparkar district.
Where is Karachi’s rain?
Karachi along with the southern parts of the country are yet to see their share of monsoon rains. The first monsoon spell entered south-eastern parts of Sindh on July 10 and lasted till 24 hours, hence it advanced into Sindh on July 10. It needs to advance more further into the western parts. There are slim chances of the second monsoon spell during the late last week of July.
Till then Karachi is expected to witness passing clouds that could cause drizzle/isolated showers with fast winds. No need of a umberalla!
Another spell brewing?
There are more rains ahead as well. The fourth and third monsoon spell can start in the same areas (North and Central parts) during the late last week of July. Hence PWP forecast this spell hitting the country to ‘poor’ at the moment. However the fourth spell is likely to be stronger in intensity when compared with the third one.
Poll of the week
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