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Two UAC, Monsoon still dull!
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Rainfall reviving soon?
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Drought emerging in India
Background
The third monsoon spell that started around the PWP’s forecasted date on July 18 ended on July 21 without significant rainfall, the spell was helped by the passing western disturbance ’14’. On July 20, the second monsoon started in the central parts and lasted till 24 hours. The rainfall over the country has been extremely poor and the monsoon has failed to advance into much of Sindh even though the most crucial month of July is about is end. Temperatures have been normal to below normal in some southern parts, the mercury has been on the cooler side in the lower parts while upper parts has seen some daily high temperature due to absence of cooling winds in Afghanistan.
Factors
*Fresh western wave ’15’ could affect the northern areas from July 24.
*Monsoon moisture from the dissipated low pressure and fresh upper air cyclonic circulation over Uttar Pradesh could start fourth monsoon spell in northern areas.
*Weather system would form in the Bay of Bengal on July 25/July 26.
Last week of July could witness some active weather over many parts of India while another spell is also likely in Pakistan after fourth one.
Drought: India rings the alaram bells!
There has been 22% deficiency in the monsoon rainfall over India which has caused the Indian Prime Minister Manhoman Singh to swing into action as more than 70% India depends upon good monsoon season. The Indian meteorological Department (IMD) may further reduce the rainfall from 96% to 92%. It is worth noting that IMD has already dropped the rains from 98% to 96% in early July. If the department does so then it would be an embarrassing move as IMD is already being criticized at home for its failure to predict accurately. Such voices were also raised in 2009 when India plunged into drought, the worst since 1970s.
Upcoming activity over Pakistan
Monsoon moisture would bring fresh rainfall to some parts of the country in the form of fourth spell. Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP) forecasted the fourth monsoon spell (third in central parts) hitting the northern parts of the country during the late last week of July and said on July 21 that this spell could start from July 24 night/July 25 and since then PWP has maintained the chance of that spell hitting the parts of the country to ‘extremely high’.
The fourth monsoon spell would last till July 27 morning while some northern parts of Punjab could experience isolated heavy falls, overall the rain would be light with scattered moderate falls. The third spell in central parts could start from July 25/July 26 and would last till 12 to 24 hours, it would be weak in intensity.
Fourth and third monsoon spell
Northern region
”Happening – Monsoon/Western winds managing to create meaningful rains”
Islamabad is expected to receive it’s fourth monsoon showers of the year from July 24 night/July 25 that would last till July 27. The other northern cities that is Lahore, Rawalpindi, Peshawar, Abbottabad, Murree and other adjoining cities are also expected to get monsoon showers during the same period. The rain will be mostly moderate while there are chances of isolated heavy falls over northern Punjab and adjoining Azad Kashmir, area near Indian Kashmir.
During the 24 hours, drizzle/isolated shower will occur over the extreme north-western parts of the country.
Central region
”Past – Little to no rainfall”
Light showers with chances of scattered moderate falls are also expected in south Punjab including Multan during the same period. However rainfall here would be weak in intensity and would last till shorter period. Many areas would experience passing clouds.
Southern region
”Feared to happen – July ending with no rainfall!”
Mostly dry weather is expected in this part that is Sindh however there are some chances drizzle/isolated showers in Karachi, Thatta, Badin, Tharparkar, Umerkot, Mirpur Khas, Hyderabad, Sukkur, Nawabshah and few other adjoining cities due to the closeness of thunderclouds over Gujarat during last days of July. While another thundercloud formation could also take place near western Sindh that may bring some drizzle with fast winds to upper parts of Sindh till this week. Central parts of Sindh are likely to witness passing clouds. However this monsoon spell (fourth) would not affect southern parts. Karachi and Hyderabad have received 1 mm and 3 mm rainfall this monsoon respectively.
Low level cloud cover over Karachi and other cities of coastal Sindh would remain till second week of August.
Death toll this monsoon
Every year more than 150 people die across the Sub-continent due to floods, heat waves or cyclones. Surprisingly this monsoon only five people have died in the country as compared to the last year’s 42 deaths till July 24 that started from June 25.
Fifth monsoon spell and future!
On July 23, PWP forecasted another spell in the upper parts of the country during the early first week of August. Hence PWP forecasts the chance of the fifth spell hitting the country to ‘poor’ at the moment, it would be upgraded soon. PWP maintains the chance of ”third” monsoon spell hitting Sindh during the last days of July to ‘extremely poor’ at the moment.
Thunderclouds would move from the Bay of Bengal to central parts of India till first week of August that would bring some good showers however there is a distinct possibility of a thundercloud crossing into south-eastern Sindh during the last days of July.
Poll of the week
Last time Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP) held a poll in which 69.2% people believed that monsoon would peak in August while 30.7% believed that dull conditions would continue. Now;
Pakistan Weather PortaL 