First Winter Outlook (2012 – 2013): Pakistan’s Winter starts slowly!

Road of Murree covered with thick snow!

As it was being earlier expected that El-Nino, the warming of the equatorial waters in the Pacific Ocean, would form and affect the world’s weather pattern especially the winter season but it seems as if nature has some thing else install for the world as El-Nino now looks like a distant dream.

Western winter winds did come to Pakistan during middle of October in the northern areas however they did not have enough strength to bring cold winds to the southern parts as well as snowfall to the northern areas. On November 19, due to a strong western disturbance ’07’ that was over Iran, it brought slight chilly winds to the southern parts of the country while few days ago western disturbance ’06’ brought season’s first snowfall to Gilgit region.

Factors that affect Pakistan in Winter

Only two weather phenomenons affect Pakistan during winter months;

    1. Western disturbance: These storms have the potential to cause heavy precipitation with strong winds gusting to 100 km/h or more, they could cover whole Pakistan depending upon their intensity. It is major non-monsoon weather system in the north-western sub-continent.
    2. Fog: It mostly affect the plains of Punjab, Khyber Pukhtoonkhwa and adjoining Sindh, depending upon the prevailing conditions, fog could turn into the most threatening source of traffic accidents in the country. It rarely forms over coastal Pakistan.

Upcoming Winter Weather

The famous Margalla Hill Snow

Current western disturbance ’07’ would cause the night temperatures to drop by 2°C to 3°C in the northern areas while 1°C to 2°C in the southern parts including Karachi, precipitation wise, WD 07 would cause light showers with light snowfall over the extreme northern areas.

During the first/second week of December, a fresh western disturbance could affect the country, some chances that it would affect the western coastal areas. Precipitation would be light to near medium at the moment after that foggy conditions might develop/re-develop over the plains of central areas.

Winter of 2012-2013: First Outlook

Tokyo-based Regional Institute for Global Change (RIGC) along with several other climatic Institutes were expecting El-Nino to affect the winter however after still formation it mostly disappeared giving a clear way for ENSO neutral condition. In Pakistan, last two winters 2010-2011 and 2011-2012 were affected by La-Nina.

“Due to the prevailing and developing atmospheric conditions across the region, the winter in coming months is likely to be near normal as a whole in terms of temperatures while it could be slightly warmer than average in south-eastern parts of the country that is south Punjab and Sindh. Cooler than average conditions could occur in north-western areas of the country during the month of January. While rainfall would be below normal in Sindh, south Punjab and lower Balochistan while normal in upper Balochistan, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and northern Punjab, it could turn into slightly above normal in January and February in the northern areas. Heavy precipitation could create isolated flash flooding in northern Balochistan in January/February” –  (PWP will issue a second outlook on January 15, 2013 where this forecast would be revised or remain unchange).

Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP) declared the start of winter (2012 – 2013) from November 19 as by then the cold winds had entered the coastal areas after engulfing the whole country.


25 thoughts on “First Winter Outlook (2012 – 2013): Pakistan’s Winter starts slowly!

  1. It would be great if you would mention murree relating to snowfall in upcoming winter updates as it is popular hill resort and many people including myself want to visit murree during snow.

  2. hello bhai. its better to change the name of this site to Karachi Weather Portal because u mostly update about karachi. Daily weather update is also about karachi. its not fair. Pakistan Weather Portal should update about other few major cities in all the provinces equally. atleast overall forecast ie., daily weather updates should cover whole country’s overall weather forecast. it seems this site is only about karachi.

    • Positive criticism are always a welcome sight, it helps us improve. The fact of the matter is that PWP is not a government-owned site that is bound to give updates for whole country, PWP is a blog! though PWP’s articles/updates/post focus on the main weather news of the country. If there would have been a hailstorm right in Lahore, then you would have been a short update on Lahore, the reason why Karachi is mentioned because today its temperature suddenly rose. PWP is not an ethnic weather blog, it is a national weather blog, everyone one is equal.

  3. bhai aj to yahan tando muhammad khan me bhi light rain huwi thi about 15 continuous thi app is ke hawale se kya jahen ge kya aane wale dino me tando muhammad khan me rains ki prediction hai ya nahe THANK YOU<

  4. I remember 10 – 15 years ago, in the winters in Rawalpindi / Islamabad it would rain continuously for many days – sometimes 4 or 5 days in a row. I haven’t seen that kind of a persistent rain at least in the past one decade. I wonder if this had something to do with global warming.

  5. It is uncharacteristically warm here in the country, it was 26C high temperature in Lahore. When will the temperatures return to normal?

  6. Last year winter was not like we were expecting , even this year only 3 days of light to moderate fogg in punjab and still not using heating ,,, i miss fire in fireplaces and chilli evenings

  7. thanks dear bhai for considering my request. i always appreciate ur work and efforts and will continue to do that. i am a big fan of u thats why speak out what i feel and you r so much courteous to reply me and respond in a positive manner . thanks again.

  8. Kia aisi koi prediction hai ke feb main upper parts including islamabad main severe cold weather hoga due to the jet stream set up in south ?

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