Pakistan Weather Update & Monsoon Alert (June 11 – June 25) – Update from June 16!

monsoon-2013-pwp

  • Very Active June in Pak and India

  • Heavy pre-monsoon expected!

  • Rains in Sindh, Punjab, Khyber, Kashmir 

Go below for new updates issued on June 16

June is mostly considered a hot month for Pakistan but in the end pre-monsoon activity can start in some parts of the country however this year the pre-monsoon activity started early in the country as first monsoonal activity occurred in South-eastern parts of Sindh on June 4, early than last many monsoon season. PWP had mentioned on June 4 the upcoming scattered to widespread pre-monsoon rainfall in the month of June. In Monsoon II article published on May 6, PWP mentioned the upcoming chances of pre-monsoon activity in Sindh and some parts of Punjab in June. In Monsoon V published on June 7, PWP mentioned that monsoon onset could happen in the country especially the northern areas during last weeks of June/first week of July.

Factors – Present Conditions

*Western trough ’10′ is coming to the northern areas of the country on June 12 or June 13.

*Upper air cyclonic circulations present over north-eastern Arabian sea and adjoining Gujarat and Sindh, now lies over Guajrat and adjoining Sindh coast, likely to persist till few days.

*A fresh upper air cyclonic circulation formed in the Bay of Bengal, in 24 to 36 hours it may intensify into a low pressure. It may move towards central India.

Latest condition of the ‘Dust Cloud’

Most Pakistan is clear!

Most Pakistan is clear!

The atmoshperic rain blocking conditions that has been a much disappointed in the year 2012. According to the latest charts, the dust cloud will disappear from the northern and central areas of the country that can only rain bearing clouds if they form to move into the country easily though the southern areas will remain under the grip of weak to moderate dust clouds. If comparing to 2011 and 2012, the dust cloud remained over the country in the month of June but this year it is in weaker form in June. Overall the situation has improved.

Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP)’s forecast

Notice: This is the forecast from Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP), we are 85% confident with this prediction. There will be slight variations in our forecast as certain meteorological factors develop and fade as time passes by and these factors are too isolated to be noticed on numerical charts or models. According to various meteorological parameters this forecast has been made.”

PWP's expected condition on June 13/June 14

PWP’s expected condition on June 13/June 14

  • The Article would be updated on June 16!

Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP) successfully predicted the onset of the pre-monsoon spells in the country as PWP’s pre-monsoon forecast was around June 14 (+2,-2 day error) and the rains will occur around this time frame. Overall PWP’s performance had been much better than last year in terms of pre-monsoon. On June 10 (June 9 in North), PWP upgraded the chances of pre-monsoon in the north, central and southern parts of the country to ‘extremely high’

As of 6:00 pm PKT June 11, Various models, numerical charts and other meteorological parameters observed by PWP for the track of developing weather systems are shown as;

*The upper air cyclonic circulations over north-eastern Arabian sea now over Gujarat and adjoining Sindh, it will persist till few days. Another Circulation from Bay of Bengal can reach lower central India on June 14 and it could intensify once again into a low pressure. Between June 15/June 16, it will be over Gujarat and adjoining coastal Sindh and absorb the existing moisture from Arabian sea’s circulation, come strong thunderstorms can cross into southern Pakistan even Karachi. Late June 18, it will over the Northern Arabian sea as a  insignificant system. Another possibility of this system it that as it reaches central India, it will move towards north-western India and adjoining Pakistan.

We have to wait at least till two days to get a clear picture on the Bay of Bengal’s much anticipated system.

First Pre-Monsoon Spell

Alert: North-eastern areas of Punjab (Lahore, Gujranwala, Jhelum, Sialkot and other adjoining cities can experience heavy rainfall to very heavy rainfall between June 13/June 15). During this period rain can occur in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa as well including Peshawar due to the interaction with western winds which could result in heavy downpour there as well.”

Islamabad

June 11 till June 18, probability of 100 mm rainfall in North

June 11 till June 18, probability of 100 mm rainfall in North

Rain at times heavy can occur in capital from June 11 night till the end of the week with intervals. Rain will be accompanied by thunder/lightning and strong winds (>56 km/h).

Mercury is expected in Islamabad;

  • 31°C to 37 °C in Islamabad, variation expected during the first days.

Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan

Rain at times heavy can with strong winds (>56 km/h)occur in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa as well including Peshawar due to the interaction with western winds from June 13/June 14, south Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and adjoining Balochistan can experience also experience rain. The provincial capital of Balochistan Quetta would remain dry with partly/mostly cloudy skies on June 13 and June 14.

Following are the temperature expected;

  • 34°C to 39 °C Peshawar.
  • 32°C to 36°C Quetta.

Punjab

In Northern Punjab: Lahore, Faisalabad, Murree, Gujranwala, Rawalpindi, Sargodha, Sialkot, Faisalabad and other adjoining cities. Rain at times scattered heavy (very heavy in NE parts of Punjab) likely from June 12/June 13 though some rain has occurred on June 11. Rain will be accompanied by thunder/lightning and fast to strong winds (>56 km/h).

Following is the temperature forecast for Northern Punjab;

  • 33 °C to 37 °C in Lahore.
  • 35°C to 41 °C in Faisalabad.
  • 26°C to 31°C in Murree.

In Southern Punjab: Bahawalpur, Bahawalnagar, Multan, Rahim Yar Khan, D. G. Khan and other adjoining cities. From June 13/June 14 rain with thunder/lightning can occur during this week in the eastern areas of the province, there are more chances of isolated heavy falls in Bahawalnagar districts.

In Southern Punjab, temperatures will be higher than Northern Punjab;

  • 36 °C to 42°C in Multan.
  • 37 °C to 43 °C in  Bahawalpur.

Sindh

Very large thunderstorm over India on June 11 - Size of bigger than Punjab

Very large thunderstorm over India on June 11 – Size of bigger than Punjab

In Upper Sindh: Sukkur, Larkana, Jacobabad, Kashmore, Nawabshah and other adjoining  cities. From June 13/June 14 rain with scatterred moderate falls could occur in upper Sindh with thunder/lightning.

Following is the range of temperatures expected in this part.

  • 39°C to 44 °C in Sukkur.
  •  40°C to 45 °C in Larkana.
  • 42°C to 46 °C in Nawabshah.

In South-eastern Sindh: Mirpur khas, Umerkot, Tharparkar, Badin and Hyderabad. From June 12/June 13, rain with thunder/lightning can occur in this part (chances of isolated heavy falls in Mirpur Khas, Tharparkar and Badin districts).

Temperatures are mostly stationary in this part due to absence of heat waves and rains.

  • 35 °C to 40 °C in Hyderabad.

In coastal Sindh: Karachi, Thatta, Keti, Shah Bandar and other coastal localities.  From June 13/June 14 (June 12 in Thatta districts), rain with thunder/lightning along with fast winds (chances of isolated heavy falls in Thatta).

Karachi has been under a grip of hot winds since past week due to the formation of a circulation in the Arabian sea.

  • 36 °C to 40°C in Karachi.

India drenched by Monsoon

With each day passing by, the monsoon is quickly advancing into the country and according to the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD), monsoon is 12% above normal in the country while India would be covered by monsoon by the end of June.

In other news, stormy conditions have killed 40 people in Sri Lanka. Each year thousands of people are displaced in the Sub-continent due to the monsoon season.

Pakistan Weather Update & Monsoon Alert (June 16 – June 25)

  • Pre-monsoon activity coming to an end?

  • Lahore’s wet spell ends!

  • Karachi burning!

The pre-monsoon activity that started from June 11 would end on June 18 morning in the country. As forecasted by PWP since June 9 that pre-monsoon might hit the country from June 14 (-2, +2 day error), it happened with -2 day error. From June 9, PWP had predicted in the Monsoon of Pakistan update that very heavy rainfall is possible in the north-eastern areas of Punjab between June 13 and June 15. Between June 14/June 15, very heavy rainfall about 102 mm lashed Lahore.

  • 16 people have lost their lives during the pre-monsoon activity in Pakistan

Pre-monsoon activity was also observed in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Sindh and South Punjab. Overall the performance of pre-monsoon in the month of June has been normal to above normal in the country.

Monsoon arrival in Pakistan?

Monsoon advancement as per IMD

Monsoon advancement as per IMD

Monsoon can hit the country especially the northern areas of the country during the last week of June or first week of July as per PWP. Pakistan’s National Meteorological Department believes that the onset could happen during the first week of July.

However as per the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) the monsoon has covered the entire sub-continent on June 16, a month ahead.

Northern areas – After very heavy rainfall, dry weather coming!

Pak and much NW of India going dry for long period

Pak and much NW of India going dry for long period

Mostly dry weather is expected in Punjab including Islamabad and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa as the pre-monsoon activity that started from June 11, weakened significantly on June 15 night though it will end on June 17. On June 16/June 17, north-eastern areas of Punjab can experience isolated rain with thunder/lightning. From June 18, mostly dry weather is expected till many days. Western winds can dominate Khyber Pakhtunkhwa while there can be few passing clouds (slight chances of drizzle/isolated shower) over northern and north-eastern Punjab due to thundercloud formation over India’s Punjab and Haryana, which would not be frequent.

Temperatures are going to be calm till the middle of this week and after that a increase would start taking place. Overall long dry conditions expected!

Central areas – Dry weather returning!

Mostly dry weather expected in the South Punjab as well. Some clouds can occur over eastern parts especially Bahawalnagar district.

Southern areas – Another short and weak pre-monsoon activity – Dry weather coming! 

Intense activity observed across the border

Intense activity observed across the border

Another pre-monsoon spell can start in Sindh from June 16 though this spell is weak when compared to the previous one (which was also weak). PWP forecasted this spell on June 12 update at ‘extremely poor’. On June 15, PWP upgraded it from ‘very poor’ to ‘poor’ and on June 16, PWP upgrades it to ‘moderate’. This spell has only potential to cause drizzle or light rain in the province (especially Badin, Umerkot, Thatta, Karachi, Hyderabad, Sanghar, Khairpur, Sukkur and adjoining areas) on June 16 till June 18. Some districts like Tharparker, Badin and Thatta can experience isolated moderate rain with thunder/lightning on June 16 night/June 17 morning.

After June 18, dry conditions expected in the province with some cloud activity near Tharparker district.

Poll of the Week

Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP) wants to know;

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314 thoughts on “Pakistan Weather Update & Monsoon Alert (June 11 – June 25) – Update from June 16!

  1. 81mm of rain in Lahore last night. 3 days back, it was 51mm. What is the forecast for Sunday, bro (especially in Karachi?

  2. No rain in Karachi till the 2nd week of july Taimoor.
    Make yourself used to this hot and humid weather as fast as you can.

  3. Lahore had 102mm of rainfal during last 24 hours (more than 150mm during this month). Bro, what about Islamabad and Murree forecast for sunday?

    • Activity is weakening now, as the heaviest activity was expected between June 13 and June 15 especially for NE Punjab as mentioned by PWP on June 9 in ‘Monsoon of Pakistan’ page

    • Yes it has moved westwards, moisture incursion could take place in Sindh therefore chances of drizzle/light rain in the province. Check ‘Monsoon of Pakistan’

    • Thank you Sameed 🙂
      Chances of drizzle/light rain till June 18 morning.
      As per GFS, there are chances of rain during the last week of June or first week which is little early to discuss.

  4. There’s not even a thundercloud cloud over Lahore so how is it raining there ? 😦

    LOw pressure over India is dissipating.

  5. AASALAMO ALIKUM babar bhai mjhe yeh bata den k karachi main is year rains hogi monsoon main aur next spell kab aaega karachi main strong jo achi rain karachi ko dega plz zp kindly is bare main lazmi comment karna plz plz,,,,,,,,, regard syed ahsan,,,,,,,

    • Walikum Assalam, there are chances of monsoon during the last week of JUne/first week of July .
      Currently Sindh is under a fresh but very weak pre-monsoon activity.
      At the moment no heavy rain is seen.

  6. I have noticed over the years that very strong systems move westward from Bay of bengal and halts at Gujrat and rajhistan for 2-3 days and pour all moisture there.. (Why it is huge difference between rainfall quantities in Gujarat and Sindh) Are thr any visa issues or is it “dust cloud” at work?

    • In 2011, it did not happen and then you saw that 1000 mm (4 till 5 weeks) rain occurred in SE Sindh which is extremely rare even in Gujarat.
      They do move towards Sindh but travelling from one corner to another corner does causes loss of moisture which is common unless there moisture over Sindh from Arabian sea. Dust cloud and Western winds too impact the movement of low/UAC over Gujarat to Sindh.

  7. AOA ….COngrats on your achievment babar bhai

    muje ap se khali aik swaal puchna ha karachi me garmi kab khtm hogi :::::({

    • Walikum Assalam Aqib and Thank you 🙂
      This is due to the circulation near Gujarat coast which is attracting winds towards it while SW winds have been cut off. The heat can remain even in the coming week till the rain coverage in Gujarat weakens.

  8. AoA Dear Babar,

    First of all, many congrats for being recognized by the world. Welldone and keep it up.
    Now questions, aakhir kiya museebat hai k karachi k paros(Mumbai / Gujrat) men achi khasi barish ho rahi hai aur hamen sirf garmi aur humidity mil rahi hai…truly frustrating.

    • Walikum Assalam and Thank you Saleem 😀
      The climate of Karachi is very different when compared to these areas. Mumbai has western Ghats that play an important role in the formation of thunderstorms which also favours Gujarat but less in intensity. Karachi has a semi arid climate, its mostly dry. Its not uncommon to see no to little rain even in the monsoon season while sometimes monsoon can even bring flooding rain.

  9. Matbal ye hai k No humidity & Garmi….but agar humidity aur muft ki garmi rehni hai to phir kahin se bhi samandar ki gehraiyon se KHI k liye Thunder cloud produce karwao…Jhot he bol do yar….. 😦

  10. One question….. Is city of Karachi ready to receive heavy rain? Will it not cause civic problems here 😉

    • City’s infrastructure is a lot better after the work of ex-Nazim Mustafa Kamal. Drainage system is good, no major electricity black outs (in the past drizzle used to cause major breakdowns)
      However extreme events do create problem like 2007’s cyclone and 2009’s rainstorm.

  11. Dear Zeeshan,

    G Nahi. City of KHI bilkul bhi ready nahi hai hamesha ki tran….dekh ligiye ga bus zara mooonsoon ki pehli achi barish hone den phir haal dekhiye ga is shehar ka….

  12. Acha Babar aik bat clear karen Plz, what exactly is the difference b/w moonsoon & pre moon soon season?

    • In short, Pre-monsoon activity is before the monsoon season, it is weaker and occurs in few parts (even city) and it does not stay long.
      Monsoon stays for long and during its time period, soaking wet rain can occur, they last longer.

    • Walikum Assalam,
      A little early to give a verdict on their intensity.
      Would talk about them once this dry weather has passed away.

  13. But Babar, jo spell hum ne witnessed kiye hen wo to weaker nahi thay….it seems that regular moonsoon’s ki intensity ziada ho sakti hai…perhaps.

  14. I suspect, rising temperatures of Arabian sea kuch gul khilane wale hen in the near future & authorities shod prepare for that as it is surprisingly high these days i.e. 31’C today.

  15. NORMAL MONSOON RAINS PREDICTED IN THE COUNTRY DURING JULY – SEPTEMBER 2013:

    “On all Pakistan basis this year’s Monsoon rains are likely to be normal, which means that the availability of water in the country from the Monsoon rains would be satisfactory. However, erratic spread of Monsoon on temporal and spatial scale is likely to be a prevalent feature.”

    Main features of seasonal outlook are as under:

    1) Onset of monsoon is likely to be in the last week of June and the rainfall during July will be below normal.

    2) Rainfall will increase gradually during August over central parts of the country. However, during last phase of the monsoonal rainfall (September), more than normal rainfall will occur over plain monsoonal areas of Punjab and Sindh.

    3) Rainfall would mainly concentrate over central and southern parts of the country. Therefore, effective water management practices may be adopted to fill the main reservoirs at the at optimum level.

    4) Flash flooding over foot hills of Suleiman Ranges can not be ignored during the month of September, 2013.

    5) Maximum day temperature will be slightly on higher side during summer season throughout the country.

  16. salam babar bhai ;
    which area is meant by plain areas of Sindh and Punjab in seasonal forecast of pmd and is there any chance of heavy to very heavy downpour in upper Sindh in monsoon 2013 specially in cotton belt of Sindh

  17. when it is going to Rain in Hyderabad? and tellme about the Further monsoon in Hyderabad? is it going to be above normal or below normal in July and Aug?

    • For monsoon news,
      check monsoon of Pakistan page, below the page there is 2013 header in which monsoon I,II, III, IV and V are published.

  18. A thunderstorm is developing in Lahore. Intense lightning in Lahore can be seen from south west just hope this thunderstorm develops into something big :p

    • You should their prediction from them.
      However rain concentration seems to be over the northern mainly north-eastern areas of the country in July.

  19. Babar Bhai Risalpur mein monsoon kaisa rahega is saal aur regular monsoon rains kab start hongi risalpur mein? doosra sawaal ye hai kay aanay waley months temperatures kaisay rahenge aur heat waves aanay kay kitne imkaanat hain aanay wale months mein.?

  20. AoA Babar, aik bat clear karen aur m again asking you this question, rising temperatures of Arabian sea aakhir kab tak bardash kare ga i mean kisi bhi waqt apna gussa nikal sakta hai & ye Temp kahan tak rise ho sakte hen? is it normal behaviour & usually happened in 3 months of moonsoon i.e June,July & Aug? please eloaborate this in detail.

    • Walikum Assalam,
      Yes the temperatures are unusual high in the Arabian sea, till the end of July there is a possibility that they can remain high. Around 30c was recorded.

  21. AoA Babar, yar kal rat se again Sea breez kahin gayeb ho gaye hen? kiya phir koi low form ho gaya hai near Gujrat or Mumbai. Also saw few clouds yesterday night crossing karachi chupke chupke from NE to west side.

  22. there are lot of contradiction in forcasting views.austrailian say something and indian say something.pakistan believes on every thing.i read every article.pwp are in between, could be or not.are u sure 80% chance of neutral oscillation this year?

    • ENSO conditions were neutral but since May/June, a gradual decrease in temperature was seen in the east Central Pacific ocean which could point towards the formation of weak La-Nina in coming months.

      Earlier this year, the probability of having a neutral year was high.

  23. I read one of your comments in which you said monsoons focus will be on north and north eastern parts of pakistan. Does that mean Lahore will get above normal rains in the upcoming monsoon and when is monsoon expected to start here in Lahore?

    • Even in the Monsoon V, it has been mentioned that NE Punjab and Azad Kashmir could witness some frequent heavy downpour.
      That part of Punjab has some chance of getting normal to above normal rains due to frequent thunderstorm formation near the border.

  24. When will monsoon start in islamabad?? Some websites showing rain will be back sunday night june 23 do you think that might be correct??

  25. Babar bhai wanted to know why monsoon rains are harder to predict than winter (westerly) rains. In winter a forecast is often made with reasonable accuracy a week before rain and mostly it proves correct (in some cases even the timings do match). However, the monsoon forecasts changes very often, there are changes in the courses of the system often (sometimes daily).Many extended monsoon forecast also prove wrong.Why is there such an element of uncertainty associated with monsoon

    • 1. Monsoon are giant winds.
      The tropical atmosphere is unstable. You might have observed that monsoon suffers when there is a change in the wind pattern in high altitude or even the variation in temperature, sometimes these developments are local to be picked up by weather models, charts or even maps thus it is harder to predict monsoon.
      2. Monsoon of Pakistan page has been updated for the next spell.

    • There are chances of drizzle in Karachi that is common in June till early August.
      As far as the monsoon is concerned – monsoon rains usually arrives in the city after second or mid week of July.

  26. Extreme Humid weather in Lahore. it seems monsoon currents are reaching pakistan. Is rain expected tonight in Lahore?

    • Yes monsoon moisture is reaching the country, a western trough will also affect the northern areas of the country.
      Rain expected in Lahore with thunder/lightning on June 26/June 27.

  27. Babar bhai, will it rain in north western Punjab this week?? We do have some weak clouds and more coming along.. are they bringing rain here as well??

  28. Babar bhai, will it rain in north western Punjab this week?? We do have some weak clouds and more coming along.. are they bringing rain here as well??

    Also, some more questions much appreciated if you would reply.

    How is this summer going to be for North West Punjab?? Is the rain activity going to be normal or below normal?? Are there chances of rain in Ramadhan or is all of this too early to tell yet??

    • 1. Yes rain is expected in NW Punjab.
      2. Rain is expected to be near to normal till Mid July, after that a decrease in rain-coverage could occur in July and then a revival can happen in September (weak La-nina) – Written in Monsoon V (June 6). Frequent moist western winds can occur.
      3. Rain activity could be very erratic in Ramadan as of now.

      • Thanks for the info.
        What is going on?? It’s raining all around us and like you have mentioned in the updates, it rained in attock which is not far away.. Why are we not getting any rain in Jalalia?? We have some weak clouds which are here since yesterday but no rain even till today..Desperately need the rain here, very hot.
        Any chances tonight??

      • Welcome.
        Yesterday the cloud formation was weak, a weak thundercloud touched Islamabad and NW punjab before dissipating into Kashmir.
        Yes, rain is very likely in Jalalia during this week. At the moment, fresh thunderclouds have started forming over central KPK.

  29. Babar bahi many websites are showing very small amounts of rain in karachi.Can this monsoon be like the monsoon of 2012??

    • Normally monsoon does not start in June in Karachi. Various Weather Models however do show less rain coverage in southern areas in the start and mid of the monsoon similar to 2012’s monsoon. Have to wait till July.

  30. AOA..Babar bhai bahawalpur me to clouds bhi nahi a rahe clear sky hai kab tak rain ke chances hain havey…

    • Walikum Assalam,
      There are no chances of heavy rain in the city till next many days.
      The first monsoon spell could cause of passing clouds in the city especially at night.

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