Pakistan Weather Update & Monsoon Alert (June 11 – June 25) – Update from June 16!

monsoon-2013-pwp

  • Very Active June in Pak and India

  • Heavy pre-monsoon expected!

  • Rains in Sindh, Punjab, Khyber, Kashmir 

Go below for new updates issued on June 16

June is mostly considered a hot month for Pakistan but in the end pre-monsoon activity can start in some parts of the country however this year the pre-monsoon activity started early in the country as first monsoonal activity occurred in South-eastern parts of Sindh on June 4, early than last many monsoon season. PWP had mentioned on June 4 the upcoming scattered to widespread pre-monsoon rainfall in the month of June. In Monsoon II article published on May 6, PWP mentioned the upcoming chances of pre-monsoon activity in Sindh and some parts of Punjab in June. In Monsoon V published on June 7, PWP mentioned that monsoon onset could happen in the country especially the northern areas during last weeks of June/first week of July.

Factors – Present Conditions

*Western trough ’10′ is coming to the northern areas of the country on June 12 or June 13.

*Upper air cyclonic circulations present over north-eastern Arabian sea and adjoining Gujarat and Sindh, now lies over Guajrat and adjoining Sindh coast, likely to persist till few days.

*A fresh upper air cyclonic circulation formed in the Bay of Bengal, in 24 to 36 hours it may intensify into a low pressure. It may move towards central India.

Latest condition of the ‘Dust Cloud’

Most Pakistan is clear!

Most Pakistan is clear!

The atmoshperic rain blocking conditions that has been a much disappointed in the year 2012. According to the latest charts, the dust cloud will disappear from the northern and central areas of the country that can only rain bearing clouds if they form to move into the country easily though the southern areas will remain under the grip of weak to moderate dust clouds. If comparing to 2011 and 2012, the dust cloud remained over the country in the month of June but this year it is in weaker form in June. Overall the situation has improved.

Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP)’s forecast

Notice: This is the forecast from Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP), we are 85% confident with this prediction. There will be slight variations in our forecast as certain meteorological factors develop and fade as time passes by and these factors are too isolated to be noticed on numerical charts or models. According to various meteorological parameters this forecast has been made.”

PWP's expected condition on June 13/June 14

PWP’s expected condition on June 13/June 14

  • The Article would be updated on June 16!

Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP) successfully predicted the onset of the pre-monsoon spells in the country as PWP’s pre-monsoon forecast was around June 14 (+2,-2 day error) and the rains will occur around this time frame. Overall PWP’s performance had been much better than last year in terms of pre-monsoon. On June 10 (June 9 in North), PWP upgraded the chances of pre-monsoon in the north, central and southern parts of the country to ‘extremely high’

As of 6:00 pm PKT June 11, Various models, numerical charts and other meteorological parameters observed by PWP for the track of developing weather systems are shown as;

*The upper air cyclonic circulations over north-eastern Arabian sea now over Gujarat and adjoining Sindh, it will persist till few days. Another Circulation from Bay of Bengal can reach lower central India on June 14 and it could intensify once again into a low pressure. Between June 15/June 16, it will be over Gujarat and adjoining coastal Sindh and absorb the existing moisture from Arabian sea’s circulation, come strong thunderstorms can cross into southern Pakistan even Karachi. Late June 18, it will over the Northern Arabian sea as a  insignificant system. Another possibility of this system it that as it reaches central India, it will move towards north-western India and adjoining Pakistan.

We have to wait at least till two days to get a clear picture on the Bay of Bengal’s much anticipated system.

First Pre-Monsoon Spell

Alert: North-eastern areas of Punjab (Lahore, Gujranwala, Jhelum, Sialkot and other adjoining cities can experience heavy rainfall to very heavy rainfall between June 13/June 15). During this period rain can occur in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa as well including Peshawar due to the interaction with western winds which could result in heavy downpour there as well.”

Islamabad

June 11 till June 18, probability of 100 mm rainfall in North

June 11 till June 18, probability of 100 mm rainfall in North

Rain at times heavy can occur in capital from June 11 night till the end of the week with intervals. Rain will be accompanied by thunder/lightning and strong winds (>56 km/h).

Mercury is expected in Islamabad;

  • 31°C to 37 °C in Islamabad, variation expected during the first days.

Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan

Rain at times heavy can with strong winds (>56 km/h)occur in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa as well including Peshawar due to the interaction with western winds from June 13/June 14, south Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and adjoining Balochistan can experience also experience rain. The provincial capital of Balochistan Quetta would remain dry with partly/mostly cloudy skies on June 13 and June 14.

Following are the temperature expected;

  • 34°C to 39 °C Peshawar.
  • 32°C to 36°C Quetta.

Punjab

In Northern Punjab: Lahore, Faisalabad, Murree, Gujranwala, Rawalpindi, Sargodha, Sialkot, Faisalabad and other adjoining cities. Rain at times scattered heavy (very heavy in NE parts of Punjab) likely from June 12/June 13 though some rain has occurred on June 11. Rain will be accompanied by thunder/lightning and fast to strong winds (>56 km/h).

Following is the temperature forecast for Northern Punjab;

  • 33 °C to 37 °C in Lahore.
  • 35°C to 41 °C in Faisalabad.
  • 26°C to 31°C in Murree.

In Southern Punjab: Bahawalpur, Bahawalnagar, Multan, Rahim Yar Khan, D. G. Khan and other adjoining cities. From June 13/June 14 rain with thunder/lightning can occur during this week in the eastern areas of the province, there are more chances of isolated heavy falls in Bahawalnagar districts.

In Southern Punjab, temperatures will be higher than Northern Punjab;

  • 36 °C to 42°C in Multan.
  • 37 °C to 43 °C in  Bahawalpur.

Sindh

Very large thunderstorm over India on June 11 - Size of bigger than Punjab

Very large thunderstorm over India on June 11 – Size of bigger than Punjab

In Upper Sindh: Sukkur, Larkana, Jacobabad, Kashmore, Nawabshah and other adjoining  cities. From June 13/June 14 rain with scatterred moderate falls could occur in upper Sindh with thunder/lightning.

Following is the range of temperatures expected in this part.

  • 39°C to 44 °C in Sukkur.
  •  40°C to 45 °C in Larkana.
  • 42°C to 46 °C in Nawabshah.

In South-eastern Sindh: Mirpur khas, Umerkot, Tharparkar, Badin and Hyderabad. From June 12/June 13, rain with thunder/lightning can occur in this part (chances of isolated heavy falls in Mirpur Khas, Tharparkar and Badin districts).

Temperatures are mostly stationary in this part due to absence of heat waves and rains.

  • 35 °C to 40 °C in Hyderabad.

In coastal Sindh: Karachi, Thatta, Keti, Shah Bandar and other coastal localities.  From June 13/June 14 (June 12 in Thatta districts), rain with thunder/lightning along with fast winds (chances of isolated heavy falls in Thatta).

Karachi has been under a grip of hot winds since past week due to the formation of a circulation in the Arabian sea.

  • 36 °C to 40°C in Karachi.

India drenched by Monsoon

With each day passing by, the monsoon is quickly advancing into the country and according to the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD), monsoon is 12% above normal in the country while India would be covered by monsoon by the end of June.

In other news, stormy conditions have killed 40 people in Sri Lanka. Each year thousands of people are displaced in the Sub-continent due to the monsoon season.

Pakistan Weather Update & Monsoon Alert (June 16 – June 25)

  • Pre-monsoon activity coming to an end?

  • Lahore’s wet spell ends!

  • Karachi burning!

The pre-monsoon activity that started from June 11 would end on June 18 morning in the country. As forecasted by PWP since June 9 that pre-monsoon might hit the country from June 14 (-2, +2 day error), it happened with -2 day error. From June 9, PWP had predicted in the Monsoon of Pakistan update that very heavy rainfall is possible in the north-eastern areas of Punjab between June 13 and June 15. Between June 14/June 15, very heavy rainfall about 102 mm lashed Lahore.

  • 16 people have lost their lives during the pre-monsoon activity in Pakistan

Pre-monsoon activity was also observed in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Sindh and South Punjab. Overall the performance of pre-monsoon in the month of June has been normal to above normal in the country.

Monsoon arrival in Pakistan?

Monsoon advancement as per IMD

Monsoon advancement as per IMD

Monsoon can hit the country especially the northern areas of the country during the last week of June or first week of July as per PWP. Pakistan’s National Meteorological Department believes that the onset could happen during the first week of July.

However as per the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) the monsoon has covered the entire sub-continent on June 16, a month ahead.

Northern areas – After very heavy rainfall, dry weather coming!

Pak and much NW of India going dry for long period

Pak and much NW of India going dry for long period

Mostly dry weather is expected in Punjab including Islamabad and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa as the pre-monsoon activity that started from June 11, weakened significantly on June 15 night though it will end on June 17. On June 16/June 17, north-eastern areas of Punjab can experience isolated rain with thunder/lightning. From June 18, mostly dry weather is expected till many days. Western winds can dominate Khyber Pakhtunkhwa while there can be few passing clouds (slight chances of drizzle/isolated shower) over northern and north-eastern Punjab due to thundercloud formation over India’s Punjab and Haryana, which would not be frequent.

Temperatures are going to be calm till the middle of this week and after that a increase would start taking place. Overall long dry conditions expected!

Central areas – Dry weather returning!

Mostly dry weather expected in the South Punjab as well. Some clouds can occur over eastern parts especially Bahawalnagar district.

Southern areas – Another short and weak pre-monsoon activity – Dry weather coming! 

Intense activity observed across the border

Intense activity observed across the border

Another pre-monsoon spell can start in Sindh from June 16 though this spell is weak when compared to the previous one (which was also weak). PWP forecasted this spell on June 12 update at ‘extremely poor’. On June 15, PWP upgraded it from ‘very poor’ to ‘poor’ and on June 16, PWP upgrades it to ‘moderate’. This spell has only potential to cause drizzle or light rain in the province (especially Badin, Umerkot, Thatta, Karachi, Hyderabad, Sanghar, Khairpur, Sukkur and adjoining areas) on June 16 till June 18. Some districts like Tharparker, Badin and Thatta can experience isolated moderate rain with thunder/lightning on June 16 night/June 17 morning.

After June 18, dry conditions expected in the province with some cloud activity near Tharparker district.

Poll of the Week

Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP) wants to know;

Advertisements

314 thoughts on “Pakistan Weather Update & Monsoon Alert (June 11 – June 25) – Update from June 16!

  1. Legitimate work! Rawalpindi already experienced an amazing dust storm with gusts of 60 knots, I expect more! 😉
    I also had a feeling that Sialkot, Lahore and Gujranwala will be high on the list for heavy rainfall, but once the western disturbance interacts with the monsoon winds, we can expect a heavy thunderstorm developing in the North West that will sweep Upper Punjab and Northern KPK! *Fingers Crossed*

    • Thanks!
      Yes NE Punjab could witness some very heavy downpour and with approaching Western winds, I expect some strong gusty winds in the northern areas, so watch out! 😛

  2. waooo excellent forecast babar bhai now we are w8ing. Inshallah Lahore will recieve rain almost everyday. AMEEN

  3. I am loving it yesterday evening and night it rained as if monsoon was here.If pre monsoon is so strong wait for the monsoon.

  4. dear sir u mention in article “Karachi has been under a grip of hot winds since past week due to the formation of a circulation in the Arabian sea.”…. ye cyclone ki baat ki aapne ?? 🙂

  5. yea just broken clouds going frm East to south nor thses clouds are expanding into thunderstorms explain KM wat is stopping thses clouds to cover up the sky ?? y rnt they expanding into thunderstorms???

  6. At the moment what are the chances of rainfall in KHI in percentage??? according to ur lastest charts and models ???

    • dear saad … i think personally that in the evening we might see thunder in karachi…… i m anxiously waiting for that……… though air coming from east or north east but its speed is so high that it never creates low pressure… so wait for wind to stop……….

      • no wind is nt a matter the thing is thuderstorm can develop even thre is wind yea im also hopping it rains in eving have a futball match also so yea playin futball in rain is awsome to me also waiting desperatly for rain to come

    • Thunderstorm has formed over upper Sindh now, temperature has reached 40 in Karachi as loo winds are blowing now, this evening/night, chances of rain in the city.

  7. so detailed forecast. . .thanx baber. . .i was eagerly waiting for ur monsoon update article. . .i hv strong belief in ur predictions. . I used to check PMD updates before i found pwp. . .great work done. . Keep it up bro. . .i also request u to plz issue a detailed forecast for the whole country before the arrival of ramzan. . .regards

    • Thank you very much Amer for those comments 😀
      I am glad that people are taking interest in it!! 🙂
      Yes I will issue the forecast of Ramazan, many people are telling me to do so.
      Regards.

  8. HAHAHAHAHA The clouds dissipated again.
    They were about to give rain but they suddenly remembered that this is Karachi LooooooLz

  9. @ K.M, Kyon Karachi mein nahi aati tu, Hamaray aisay kya gunah hai?
    O Barish, O Barish, O Barish, O Barish.
    Tera rasta dekh rahay hai, Teri rah hum dekh rahay hai.
    Akar tu ab khush karday, O Barish, O Barish, O Barish

    • Looks like no rain will occur in Karachi…… well…… hope fully temperature might come to normal. tell us about it babar bhai

      • Chances of rain persist in Karachi, cannot ignore it since the UAC is near Gujarat and adjoining Sindh. The dust storm brought the temperature down.

  10. Dear PWP Team & Babar, welldone and keep it up. You people completely changed peoples opinion regarding weather predictions that pepople used to hold earlier. Excellent site for anybody to get to know the tecnicalities of nature…hats off.

  11. Dear Babar, please also comment on abnormal temperatures of Arabian sea these days i.e. 29’C & 30’C. Could these temperatures support any weaker low pressure to form a cyclone?

    • We had two UAC/lows in the Arabian sea, one is near Sindh at the moment, and yes the temperature is higher in Arabian sea this year though cyclone depends upon other factors too like wind shear etc

  12. Thank you. Alhamdulillah for rain this year. Last year, we didn’t get even a single drop other than one night of rain in Ramadhan.

    I just checked on a website which states that Jalalia ( Village in Attock District) will be getting rain in July as well. That is very uplifting. May Allah make it true Ameen.

  13. OVER ALL HOW WILL BE THE MONSOON IN UPPER SINDH SPECIALLY IN SUKKUR SPECIALLY FOR AGRICULTURE LAST YEAR SEPTEMBER RAINS DISTROYED CROP IN UPPER SINDH

    • It was heavy in start…yes there are chances..Winds are strong from time to time here in phase 7 with thunder and brief heavy shower..

  14. Bro in hyd Dark clouds are appearing and some are passing by from yesterday, but no rain yet? :/ is there any chance for today that it`ll rain here?

    • You are from which area of Karach?
      It was heavy showers here in Phase 7 in the beginning, 4 mm recorded.
      Yes there are chances during the coming hours depending upon the new thunder cloud…

  15. kb tak chances hain karachi main rain k babar bhai…. and intensity kesi hogi?
    and what about the circulations present in arabian sea? can it intensify to low pressure or cyclone?and can it affect karachi?
    and what about the next week rains in karachi?

    • Tomorrow very slim chances of rain in Karachi. Circulation cannot intensify into a cyclone. The rain we got today was due to the circulation. Low chances for the new spell, I have mentioned them in Monsoon of PAK and this article as well..

  16. No bro, it was just drizzling here.. still its all cloudy and i can see thunder clouds around, but still no sign of rain in Hyd :/

  17. Hi Babar,How are you, Indian met department is showing monsson is already in southern part of pakistan. which include karachi, but as per the figures karachi was suppose to get a fair amount of rainfall which was not there. A Low pressure in the north arabian sea moisture coming in cloud formations, well everything is happening except rainsin karachi is this because of westerlies or something else causing hurdles???.

    • Hello Shahbaz
      I am fine, yes IMD has declared monsoon. In 2012, IMD declared monsoon over Karachi on the day Karachi was experiencing a sunny day!
      There are no hurdles nor westerlies, its just not the luck of Karachi. Thunderclouds dissipate upon reaching Karachi.

  18. HI Baber

    We all must me very happy and thankful to GOD at least got the start at June 13 for Karachi, whereas compare to last year we had no rains at all on June,July and even August.
    Lets pray for the good season which actually starting from the 10-15 July

    Ahsan

  19. The thunderclouds dissipate upon reaching Karachi ? Are you serious ?
    Yesterday there were 2 strong thunderclouds over Karachi but nothing happened.
    Today there was a good thundercloud over Karachi but nothing happened.
    Ridiculous weather of Karachi.

  20. No site showing rain in Karachi now.
    The low won’t come to Karachi.

    No need to thank me for the good news :p

    • A week ago GFS showed this low dropping 100 to 200 mm rain in just one day in coastal Sindh including Karachi. 😛
      Now maintaining rain bands upon reaching Sindh seems to be hard for it..

  21. AoA Babar, yaar ye batatayen ye Arabian sea men jo low persist itne din se kar raha hai aakhir dessipate kioyo nahi ho jata? Ya Oman chala jaye ya Karachi aa jaye, aakhir masla kiya hai kisi Laila ka wait kar raha hai kiya 😛

  22. Aik bat aur clarify karen, ye jo aap log heavy rain predict kar rahe hen over Noth East parts of paksitan coz of western and eastern interaction tou westeren waves itne din tak kiya wohin par stand still rahen gi k western low aa kar un se mulaqat kare aur phir phoot phoot kar roye… 🙂 pls explain.

  23. Babar, UAT stands for? acha aik bat aur, ye jo low pressure ki bat hoti hai tou satellite imges men kis tran se show hota hai ya phir koi symbol use hota hai ho jo identify kare k us jagah par low pressure ya circulation moujud hai? hamen tou sirf clouds he nazar aate hen. like i remember when we used to see PTV weather report few yeards back to wo “L” se low pressure ko represent karte thay but not now.

  24. I dont see any one than PMD that rain expected in Karachi and Hyderabad on friday / saturday!!!!! WHY??????????

  25. PMD forecasts heavy to very heavy rainfall in upper punjab including lahore during next 48 hrs. What do you say us Lahoris should get ready for 100mm+ rains??

  26. Very sad.
    Okay people of Karachi, you can all go home now as there is no more rain expected in june, come back in july =D

  27. What a night for Lahore! Heavy showers between 12 to 1 then a gap of 4 hours and rain started again around 4:45 with continuous heavy rain for almost 2 hours and then from 6:30 onwards till now(8:30) moderate and stable rain which is still going on. Never seen so much rain in June.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s