Monsoon Daily Updates – For August 2012

This is actually a part of Monsoon of Pakistan page

Date of issue – August 31

Fifth spell coming to an end in Sindh

Parts of Punjab, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Kashmir gets above monthly normal rainfall!

Sindh is mostly dry! 

Low pressure has moved inland and is now situated over south-east Madya Pradesh and adjoining eastern India. Upper air cyclonic circulations are over south Rajasthan and adjoining India. Following is the rainfall recorded from August 1 till August 31 in few cities; Muzaffarabad received the highest rainfall in August that is 482.4 mm (twice its normal monthly average) while Sibbi in Balochistan got 105 mm (monthly normal is 40 mm).

• In the monsoon of 2012, Karachi received 15 mm rainfall till August 31. (Below monthly average)
• In the monsoon of 2012, Islamabad got 410.3 mm rainfall till August 31. (Above monthly average) 
• In the monsoon of 2012, Lahore got 197.6 mm rainfall till August 31. (Above monthly average)
• In the monsoon of 2012, Hyderabad got 13 mm rainfall till August 31. (Below monthly average)

PWP maintains the tenth spell in northern areas to ‘extremely high’ during the first week of September. PWP forecasts the seventh and sixth spell in south Punjab and Sindh respectively to ‘high’. Mostly dry weather is expected in the country while isolated showers could occur in northern and few central areas of the country including northern Punjab while isolated shower/rain may occur in south-eastern Sindh. The fifth monsoon spell would end tonight. Following is the amount of rainfall recorded in parts of the country;

• Sindh
• Samaro got 30 mm.
• Badin got 20 mm.
• Mithi got 20 mm.
• Nawabshah got 14 mm.
• Mirpur Khas got 10 mm.
• Punjab
• Sialkot got 43mm.
• Gujranwala got 33 mm.
• Lahore got 12 mm.
• Balochistan
• Sibbi got 27 mm.

Date of issue – August 30

Day 3 of fifth spell – First Monsoon rain in Karachi!

Fresh Monsoon spell in Sindh in few days!

Low pressure has formed  

Upper air cyclonic circulation over south Rajasthan and adjoining Sindh persists. Yesterday’s cyclonic circulation has over Bay of Bengal has intensified into a low pressure area. PWP maintains the tenth spell in northern areas to ‘extremely high’ during the first week of September. PWP forecasts the seventh and sixth spell in south Punjab and Sindh respectively to ‘high’.

Mostly dry weather is expected in the country. There are chances of more showers with moderate rainfall with very slim chances (5%) of isolated heavy falls in few areas of Sindh including Karachi till August 31 night though the fifth monsoon spell would start to weaken from tonight. Following is the rainfall that occurred in parts of the country;

• Sindh
• Khipro got 51 mm.
• Hyderabad got 13 mm.
• Karachi got 12 mm.
• Badin got 11 mm.
• Mirpur Khas got 27 mm.

Date of issue – August 29

”Monsoon’s 5th spell hits Sindh as forecasted by PWP”

Calm in the North for some time – Rain likely in Sindh!

Ninth and sixth spell ended!

Dark clouds hover over Mithi – Picture by Amar Sahtiya

Upper air cyclonic circulation over north-east Madya Pradesh has dissipated, another over north Rajasthan has moved into south Rajasthan and adjoining Sindh. Cyclonic circulation has formed over Bay of Bengal. PWP upgrades the tenth spell in northern areas to ‘extremely high’ during the first week of September.

Ninth and sixth spell in northern and central areas have ended in their respective areas however drizzle/isolated shower may occur in eastern areas of these parts.  Overall the monsoon focus has shifted towards Sindh till few days. Monsoon’s fifth spell has hit Sindh on August 28 night as forecasted by PWP as showers with thunder/lightning occurred in many parts of Sindh from August 28 night till August 29 night. There are chances of showers with moderate rainfall with very slim chances (5%) of isolated heavy falls in few areas of Sindh including Karachi till August 31 night. Following is the rainfall that occurred in parts of the country;

• Sindh
• Chhor got 17.7 mm.
• Thar got 15 mm.
• Mithi got 12 mm.
• Thatta got 9 mm.
• Mirpur Khas got 1 mm.
• Karachi got T.R

Date of issue – August 28

Day 8: Ninth spell mostly ended with 100 mm rainfall in Mianwali

Tenth spell in North Punjab – chance ‘extremely high’

Rainfall with moderate falls in Sindh – chance of fifth spell to ‘extremely high’

Thunderclouds over much of Sindh

Yesterday’s low pressure has weakened into an upper air cyclonic circulation over north-east Madya Pradesh, another over north Rajasthan. Trough of western disturbance over extreme northern areas, it has slightly mover away from the northern areas.

Ninth spell has finished in many parts of the northern areas however few eastern  areas would continue to witness isolated rain with thunder/lightning till August 29/August 30. The sixth spell has ended in many areas of south Punjab however chances of drizzle/isolated shower in south-eastern South Punjab till August 30. Overall the monsoon focus has shifted towards Sindh till few days. PWP upgrades the tenth spell in northern areas to ‘extremely high’ during the first week of September. While PWP upgrades the fifth monsoon spell in Sindh including Karachi to ‘extremely high’. There are chances of showers with moderate rainfall with very slim chances (5%) of isolated heavy falls in few areas of Sindh from August 28 night till August 31. Following is the rainfall that occurred in parts of the country;

• Punjab
• Mianwali got 100 mm.
• Murre got 42 mm.
• Khyber Pakhtunkhwa
• Bannu got 48 mm.

Date of issue – August 27

Day 7: Ninth spell weakens!

Rain/showers in Sindh – chances ‘moderate’

10th spell to come in Punjab after some days!

The low pressure area is now over north Chatisgarh, an upper air cyclonic circulation has formed over northern Rajasthan while the trough of weak western disturbance ’18′ persists over the extreme northern areas.

The ninth spell would cause rainfall with thunder/lightning in the northern areas till August 28 in some parts while few north-eastern parts would witness rain till August 29/August 30 however the spell has significantly weakened. There are 35 % (further reduced) chances of  isolated heavy downpour in Azad Kashmir and adjoining Punjab including Islamabad. The sixth spell in south Punjab could cause isolated shower/light rainfall till August 27 late night while few eastern parts would experience showers will August 29 night/August 30.

Fresh monsoon spells are likely in many parts of the country. Therefore PWP forecasts the tenth spell in northern areas to ‘very high’ during the first week of September. While PWP upgrades the fifth monsoon spell in Sindh including Karachi to ‘moderate’. Following is the rainfall that occurred in parts of the country;

• Punjab
• M.B.Din got 68 mm.
• Balochistan
• Sibbi got 49 mm.
• Zhob got 32 mm.

Date of issue – August 26

Day 6 – Ninth spell: Heavy downpour continues in North !

The low pressure area over the northern sector of the Bay of Bengal is now over north-west Bay of Bengal, while the trough of weak western disturbance ’18′ persists over the extreme northern areas.

The ninth spell would cause rainfall with thunder/lightning in the northern areas till August 27/August 28 with few sunny intervals. There are 45 % chances of  isolated heavy downpour in Azad Kashmir and adjoining Punjab including Islamabad. The sixth spell in south Punjab could cause isolated shower/light rainfall till August 27 late night.Another spell is also likely in some parts of the country. Following is the rainfall that occurred in parts of the country;

• Islamabad got 6 mm.
• Punjab
• M.B Din got 101 mm.
• Mianwali got 71 mm.
• Murree got 16 mm.
• Kashmir
• Kotli got 42 mm.
• Muzaffarabad got 11 mm.
• Khyber Pakhtunkhwa
• Parachinar got 25 mm.

Date of issue – August 25

Isolated showers in parts of Karachi!

Ninth spell continues for the fifth day!

A low pressure area has formed in the northern sector of the Bay of Bengal, while the trough of weak western disturbance ’18′ persists over the extreme northern areas.

The ninth spell has weakened further however it would cause rainfall with thunder/lightning in the northern areas till August 27/August 28 with few sunny intervals. There are 45 % chances of  isolated heavy downpour in Azad Kashmir and adjoining Punjab including Islamabad. The sixth spell in south Punjab could cause isolated showers till August 26/August 27. Drizzle/isolated showers occurred mainly in Karachi than any other part of Sindh however this cloud formation has moved into the Arabian sea. Following is the rainfall that occurred in parts of the country;

• Islamabad got 89 mm.
• Punjab
• Rawalpindi got 54 mm.
• Sialkot got 53 mm.
• Lahore got 11 mm.
• Sindh
• Karachi got T.R

Date of issue – August 24

Ninth spell has weakened!

Isolated heavy rainfall in parts of Balochistan!

Upper air cyclonic circulation has dissipated, while the trough of weak western disturbance ’18′ persists over the extreme northern areas.

The ninth spell has weakened however it would cause rainfall with thunder/lightning in the northern areas till August 27/August 28 with few sunny intervals. There are 45 % chances (further reduced) of  isolated heavy downpour in Azad Kashmir and adjoining Punjab including Islamabad. The sixth spell in south Punjab could cause isolated showers till August 26/August 27. Light drizzle occurred in coastal and south-eastern Sindh on August 23 however PWP downgrades the fifth spell from ‘very high’ to ‘poor’, chances of isolated shower in parts of Sindh would end after 6 hours. Following is the rainfall that occurred in parts of the country;

•  Islamabad got 45 mm.
• Punjab
• Rawalpindi got 69 mm.
• Gujranwala got 14 mm.
• South Punjab
• Bahawalpur got 3 mm.
• Parts of Multan might have recorded rain.
• Balochistan
• Khuzdar got 50 mm.
• Ziarat got 14 mm.
• Sindh
• Karachi got T.R
• Badin got T.R

Date of issue – August 23

Sixth spell hits south Punjab as forecasted!

Ninth spell to continue – 20 killed in Urban flooding in the North!

Chances of fifth spell to ‘very high’ in Sindh

Low pressure has weakened over north-west India that is Haryana into an upper air cyclonic circulation. Trough of weak western wave ’18′ is over south-western China near Pakistani border persists.

Ninth spell in Northern areas has so far remained active on August 23, it is still likely to cause thunder/lightning with rainfall with 65% (slightly reduced) chances of scattered heavy downpour in the northern areas especially Azad Kashmir and adjoining northern Punjab and Islamabad till this week. The spell has the potential to cause further urban flooding in the mentioned areas. Ninth spell would continue till this week with intervals and would on August 27/August 28. The sixth monsoon spell has advanced into south Punjab as forecasted by PWP since  August 19 as isolated sharp showers occurred in Multan, the spell would continue till 48 hours. There are chances of isolated showers/rain in parts of Sindh on August 24 till 36 to 48 hours. PWP upgrades the chance of fifth monsoon spell in Sindh to from ’high’ to ‘very high’. Moderate drizzle occurred in Clifton area of Karachi this evening. Following is the monsoon rainfall;

• Islamabad got 10 mm.
• Punjab
• Sahiwal got 88 m.
• Malamjabba got 68 mm.
• Khyber Pakhtunkhwa
• Lower Dir got 65 mm.
• Peshawar 59 mm.

Date of issue – August 22

Ninth spell – Stormy rains kill 5 people in North – Brings urban floods!

Chance of Sindh at ‘high’ – South Punjab at ‘extremely high’

On August 22, the low pressure was over South Utter Pradesh and adjoining Haryana and eastern Rajasthan as it moved in a WNW direction and weakened. Trough of weak western wave ’18′ is over south-western China near Pakistani border persists. Cyclonic circulations over Gujarat and adjoining area is also seen on the satellite image.

Ninth spell continues to affect the northern areas of the country as scattered heavy rainfall has occurred in few places of Azad Kashmir and northern Punjab, there are still chances (75%) of more scattered heavy downpours in north areas of the country especially Azad Kashmir and adjoining northern Punjab and Islamabad on August 23 that could cause urban flooding in the mentioned areas. Ninth spell would continue till this week with intervals and would slightly weaken after August 23.

Monsoon winds are moving towards central and southern parts however they are week. There are chances of rainfall/showers with thunder/lightning on August 22 night/August 23 morning till 36 hours as sixth spell would enter the central areas. Hence PWP upgrades the chance of sixth spell hitting south Punjab from ‘very high‘ to ’extremely high’. There are chances of isolated showers/rain in parts of Sindh on August 23/August 24. PWP maintains the chance of fifth monsoon spell in Sindh to from ’moderate’ to ‘high‘. Tonight mostly stable rain is expected in northern areas with thunder/lightning while isolated showers with thunder/lightning could occur in south Punjab. There are chances of drizzle in coastal and south-eastern Sindh. Tomorrow again heavy downpour could occur in the northern areas. Following is the rainfall that occurred in northern parts due to the ninth spell;

• Khyber Pakhtunkhwa
• Kakul got 84 mm.
• Risalpur got 45 mm.
• Punjab
• Sialkot got 74 mm.
• Jehlum got 73 mm.
• Rawalpindi 55 mm.
• Murree got 46 mm.

Date of issue – August 21

Ninth spell to continue – Muzaffarabad gets 266 mm rainfall in 48 hours!!

Monsoon winds to move into central and southern parts

Chance of Sindh ‘high’ – South Punjab to ‘very high’

Yesterday’s low pressure over Madya Pradesh has slightly moved in a WNW direction over north Madya Pradesh and adjoining Utter Pradesh, it would move in a westward/slight WNW direction and weaken. Trough of weak western wave ’18′ is over south-western China near Pakistani border. Cyclonic circulations over Gujarat and adjoining area is also seen on the satellite image.

Ninth spell continues to affect the northern areas of the country as scattered heavy rainfall has occurred in few places of Azad Kashmir and northern Punjab, there are still chances (75%) of more scattered heavy downpours in north areas of the country especially Azad Kashmir and adjoining northern Punjab and Islamabad on August 22 that could cause urban flooding in the mentioned areas. Ninth spell would continue till this week with intervals and would slightly weaken after August 23.

Monsoon winds would shift towards the central and southern parts after 24 hours. There are chances of rainfall/showers with thunder/lightning on August 22 night/August 23 morning till 36 hours as sixth spell would enter the central areas. Hence PWP upgrades the chance of sixth spell hitting south Punjab from ‘high‘ to ’very high’. There are chances of isolated showers/rain in parts of Sindh on August 23/August 24. Hence PWP upgrades the chance of fifth monsoon spell in Sindh to from ’moderate’ to ‘high‘. Following is the rainfall that occurred in northern parts due to the ninth spell;

• Islamabad got 1 mm.
• Azad Kashmir
• Muzaffarabad got 103 mm.
• Rawalakot got 22 mm.
• Kotli got 31 mm.
• Khyber Pakhtunkhwa 
• Balakot got 33 mm.
• Punjab
• Murree got 46 mm.

Date of issue – August 20

Ninth spell started – More heavy downpour in Punjab and Azad Kashmir

Urban flooding is possible in North!

6th spell in south Punjab to ‘high’ – 5th spell in Sindh to ‘moderate’

Yesterday’s low pressure is over Madya Pradesh, it would move in a westward/slight WNW direction and weaken. Trough of weak western wave ’18′ is over south-western China near Pakistani border.

Ninth spell has started in the northern areas as forecasted by PWP since August 16. There are 75% (increased) chance of scattered heavy downpours in north areas of the country especially Azad Kashmir and adjoining Punjab and Islamabad. This spell would continue till few days. There are chances of rainfall/showers during mid-week as sixth spell would enter the area. Hence PWP upgrades the chance of sixth spell hitting south Punjab from ‘moderate‘ to ’high’. Chances of isolated showers in parts of Sindh on August 23/August 24. Hence PWP forecasts the chance of fifth monsoon spell in Sindh to ’moderate’. Following is the rainfall that occurred in northern parts due to the ninth spell;

• Islamabad got 30 mm.
• Azad Kashmir
• Muzaffarabad got 163 mm.
• Punjab
• Rawalpindi got 127 mm.
• Murree got 101 mm.

Date of issue – August 19

“Ninth spell starting soon!”

Thunderclouds moving from India to north Punjab!

Weak westerlies over Gilgit!

Yesterday’s low pressure has moved rapidly in a western direction, it is over Chatisgarh and adjoining Madya Pradesh, there are still some chances that  it may move towards north-western India however a change in track is possible after 24 hours. Trough of weak western disturbance ’18′ could affect the northern parts from August 20. By August 19, the remnants of Kai-Tak would improve the situation over Bay of Bengal.

Due to the movement of thunderstorms over north-western India towards northern Punjab the ninth spell is expected to start from  August 19 night/August 20 morning. Hence PWP maintains the chance of ninth spell to ’extremely high’. During the ninth spell there are 65% chance of isolated heavy downpours in northern Punjab including Islamabad, Lahore, Gujranwala and other adjoining areas during the spell, this is the first time during the current monsoon year that clouds are easily moving from northern India to northern Pakistan however westerlies are passing through Gilgit region. PWP maintains the chance of sixth spell in south Punjab during the upcoming week to ‘moderate’. The coming week would be active due to the coming low pressure over the sub-continent.

• Islamabad got 1 mm.

Date of issue – August 18

Ninth spell near the country! – chance maintained at ‘extremely high’

Low pressure over north-west Bay of Bengal persists, it is expected to move in a westerly direction first, then it may move towards north-western India. Western disturbance ’18′ may reach the parts of the country on August 19/August 20. By August 18 night/August 19, the remnants of Kai-Tak would improve the situation over Bay of Bengal.

Mostly dry weather is expected in the country however drizzle/isolated showers may occur over north-eastern Punjab due to the movement of weak thunderclouds over north-central India to north-west India. Ninth spell is expected in the northern areas on August 19/August 20 morning. Hence PWP maintains the chance of ninth spell to ’extremely high’. During the ninth spell there are 45% chance of isolated heavy downpours in northern Punjab including Islamabad, Lahore, Gujranwala and other adjoining areas during the spell. PWP maintains the chance of sixth spell in south Punjab during the upcoming week to ‘moderate’. The coming week would be active due to the coming low pressure over the sub-continent.

Date of issue – August 17

Yesterday’s upper air cyclonic circulation over western Rajasthan and adjoining south Punjab has dissipated as it continued to move into the Pakistani territory. Western disturbance ’17′ has moved away. Cyclonic circulation over north-west Bay of Bengal has intensified into a low pressure. By August 18 night/August 19, the remnants of Kai-Tak would improve the situation over Bay of Bengal. Another western disturbance ’18′ would affect the northern areas after few days.

Mostly dry weather is expected however drizzle/isolated shower may occur over central parts. Ninth spell is expected in the northern areas on August 19/August 20 morning. By August 18 night, isolated showers with thunder/lightning may occur over the northern areas. Hence PWP upgrades the chance of ninth spell to ‘extremely high’. PWP also forecasts the chance of sixth spell in south Punjab during the upcoming week to ‘moderate’. The coming week would be active due to the coming low pressure over the sub-continent. Following is the monsoon rainfall that occurred due to eighth and fifth spell in parts of the country;

• South Punjab
• Bahawalpur got 49 mm.
• Bahawalnagar got 5 mm.
• North Punjab
• Lahore got 19 mm.

Date of issue – August 16

“PWP forecasts the chance of ninth spell in north Pakistan to ‘very high’!”

Upper air cyclonic circulations over Rajasthan is over western Rajasthan and adjoining south Punjab, it has weakened. Current western disturbance ’17′ is attracting the moisture from the UAC as it moves into China, likely to persist till 24 hours.  Cyclonic circulation over north-west Bay of Bengal, it may deepen between August 16 till August 18 mid-day. By August 18 night/August 19, the remnants of Kai-Tak would improve the situation over Bay of Bengal. Another western disturbance ’18′ would affect the northern areas after few days.

Eighth spell over the northern areas has weakened however the spell would cause more rainfall with strong winds and thunder/lightning till 24 hours. Ninth spell is expected in the northern areas after few days. More chances of showers at few places in south Punjab 24 hours after that a decrease in chance is expected as fifth spell continues. There are chances of isolated rain/shower with thunder/lightning in NE and SE parts of Sindh (Mirpur Khas, Sanghar, Umerkot, Tharparkar, Sukkur, Gotki, Khairpur and few adjoining areas). All these spells would end on August 16 /August 17 night. Following is the monsoon rainfall that occurred in few parts of the country;

• Islamabad got 2 mm.
• North Punjab
• Jhelum got 10 mm.
• Murree got 7 mm.
• Rawalpindi got 3 mm.
• South Punjab
• Bahawalpur got 19 mm.
• Multan got 8 mm.
• Bahawalnagar got 4 mm.
• Khyber Pakhtunkhwa
• Parachinar got 17 mm.
• Balochistan
• Barkhan got 15 mm.
• Sindh
• Jacobabad got T.R

Date of issue – August 15

8th, 5th and 4th Spells continues!

Tropical storm ‘Kai-Tak’ brings more floods to Philippines

Fresh UAC could intensify into a low pressure area

Yesterday’s low pressure over east Rajasthan weakens into an upper air cyclonic circulations over Rajasthan and adjoining central Pakistan, cloud cover from the system over central parts and adjoining area. Current western disturbance ’17′ has weakened and likely to persist till 24 to 36 hours. Cyclonic circulation over north-west Bay of Bengal, it may deepen during August 16 till August 18 mid-day. Tropical storm ‘Kai-Tak’ has brought massive downpours to the already flooded-Philippines, the cyclone is moving in a westward direction and would intensify further before making landfall over China. By August 17 night/August 18, the remnants of Kai-Tak would improve the situation over Bay of Bengal.

Eighth spell over the northern areas has weakened however the spell would cause more rainfall with strong winds and thunder/lightning. Isolated heavy rainfall has occurred in north-eastern Punjab as forecasted by PWP since August 10.  More chances of showers at few places in south Punjab 36 hours after that a decrease in chance is expected as fifth spell continues. There are chances of isolated rain/shower with thunder/lightning in NE and SE parts of Sindh (Mirpur Khas, Sanghar, Umerkot, Tharparkar, Sukkur, Gotki, Khairpur and few adjoining areas). All these spells would end on August 16 /August 17 night. Following is the monsoon rainfall that occurred in few parts of the country;

• Punjab
• M.B.Din got 80 mm.
• Jhelum got 43 mm.
• Sialkot got 18 mm.
• Lahore got 10 mm.
• Kashmir
• Kotli got 26 mm.

Date of issue – August 14

Low pressure over east Rajasthan and adjoining area persists, it is not expected to maintain intensity for long. Western disturbance ’17′ persists over the northern area. Fresh Upper air cyclonic circulation has formed in the north-west Bay of Bengal.

Eighth spell is causing rainfall in the northern areas including Islamabad, Lahore, Gujranwala and other adjoining cities. During this spell, there are chances (45%) of isolated heavy rainfall in north-eastern Punjab, Azad Kashmir, few parts of north-western Khyber Pakhtunkhwa including Islamabad. More chances of showers at few places in south Punjab 36 hours after that a decrease in chance is expected.

Mirpur Khas, Sanghar, Umerkot, Tharparkar, Sukkur, Gotki, Khairpur and few adjoining areas can experience rainfall till late this week as the fourth spell is continuing. Other areas of Sindh including Karachi, Hyderabad and Nawabshah would remain dry with chances of drizzle. Following is the rainfall that occurred due to the eighth spell in the country;

• Islamabad got 12 mm.
• Punjab
• Lahore got 44 mm.
• Mangla got 33 mm.
• Jehlum got 25 mm.
• Kashmir
• Kotli got 20 mm.
• Sindh
• Moen-Jo-Daro got 1 mm.
• Nawabshah got 1 mm.

Date of issue – August 13

The Weather system has moved extremely slow

An upper air cyclonic circulation over the north-west Madya Pradesh has again intensified into a low pressure over east Rajasthan and adjoining area, it is not expected to maintain intensity for long. Another UAC over Chhattisgarh dissipates. Western disturbance ’17′ persists over the northern area.

Eighth spell has started from August 13 as forecasted by PWP since August 10 in the northern areas including Islamabad, Lahore, Gujranwala and other adjoining cities. During this coming week, there are chances (45%) of isolated heavy rainfall in north-eastern Punjab, Azad Kashmir, few parts of north-western Khyber Pakhtunkhwa including Islamabad. Fifth monsoon spell hit south Punjab on August 12 as rain with strong winds occurred in Multan, more chances of showers at few places in south Punjab till 24 to 36 hours.

Large thundercloud formation takes place over upper and south-eastern for the second day indicating the presence of fourth monsoon spell, hence the fourth spell has hit Sindh on August 13 that was forecasted by PWP since August 10.  Mirpur Khas, Sanghar, Umerkot, Tharparkar, Sukkur, Gotki, Khairpur and few adjoining areas can experience rainfall on August 12 night/August 13 till dew days. Other areas of Sindh including Karachi, Hyderabad and Nawabshah would remain dry with chances of drizzle. Following is the rainfall that occurred due to the eighth spell in the country;

• Islamabad got 26 mm.
• Punjab
• Okara got 21 mm.
• Norpur Thal got 15 mm.
• Khyber Pakhtunkhwa
• Parachinar got 7 mm.
• Peshawar got 6 mm.

Date of issue – August 12

”Seventh spell ends in north Punjab”

Chance of 8th spell in North to ‘extremely high’ – 5th spell in South ‘moderate’

Chance of fourth spell in Sindh to ‘very high’

An upper air cyclonic circulation over the north-west Madya Pradesh persists,  another over Chhattisgarh. Western disturbance ’17′ persists over the northern area.

The seventh monsoon spell has ended in the country as cloud formation over northern Pakistan reduced considerably. A new eighth spell would start from August 12 night/August 13 in the northern areas including Islamabad, Lahore, Gujranwala and other adjoining cities. During this coming week, there are chances (45%) of isolated heavy rainfall in north-eastern Punjab, Azad Kashmir, few parts of north-western Khyber Pakhtunkhwa including Islamabad. PWP forecasts the chance of eighth monsoon spell hitting the northern areas to ‘extremely high’. The chance of fifth monsoon spell hitting south Punjab on August 12 night remains ‘moderate’ as thunderclouds are forming over eastern south Punjab.

There are chances of fourth monsoon spell in some eastern parts of Sindh including Mirpur Khas, Sanghar, Umerkot, Tharparkar, Sukkur, Gotki, Khairpur and few adjoining areas where rainfall could occur on August 12 night/August 13. Other areas of Sindh including Karachi, Hyderabad and Nawabshah would remain dry with chances of drizzle. Hence PWP upgrades the fourth spell hitting Sindh to ‘very high’. A slight active rainy pattern is expected in some parts of the country especially northern areas during the coming week. No significant rainfall occurred in the country.

Date of issue – August 11

Chance of fourth spell in Sindh to ‘high’

Chance of eighth spell in North to ‘extremely high’ – Central to ‘moderate’

An upper air cyclonic circulation over the north-west Madya Pradesh,  another over Chhattisgarh. Western disturbance ’17′ persists over the northern area. 13 people including Imam dead in Bangladesh as lightning strikes a Mosque. Early this week 34 people died in Uttarakhand, India due to long spells of heavy downpour.

The seventh monsoon spell could cause more thunder/lightning with rainfall till August 12 mid-day/evening, a new eighth spell would start from August 12 night/August 13 in the northern areas including Islamabad, Lahore, Gujranwala and other adjoining cities.During this coming week, there are chances (45%) of isolated heavy rainfall in north-eastern Punjab, Azad Kashmir, few parts of north-western Khyber Pakhtunkhwa including Islamabad. PWP forecasts the chance of eighth monsoon spell hitting the northern areas to ‘extremely high’. On August 11 night/August 12, fifth monsoon spell may start in the central areas (south Punjab) as there are chances of light showers therefore PWP maintains the chance of 5th monsoon spell hitting south Punjab to ’moderate’. 

There are chances of fourth monsoon spell in some eastern parts of Sindh including Mirpur Khas, Sanghar, Umerkot, Tharparkar, Sukkur, Gotki, Khairpur and few adjoining areas where rainfall could occur on August 12 night/August 13. Other areas of Sindh including Karachi, Hyderabad and Nawabshah would remain dry with chances of drizzle.Hence PWP upgrades the fourth spell hitting Sindh to ‘high’. Active rainy pattern is expected in some parts of the country especially northern areas during the coming week. Following is the monsoon rainfall that occurred in some cities of the country during the seventh spell;

• Punjab
• Sahiwal got 33 mm. (including Joharabad).
• Mangla got 18 mm.
• Faisalabad got 12 mm.
• Khyber Pakhtunkhwa
• Kakul got 28 mm.
• Parachinar got 27 mm.
• Kashmir
• Kotli got 11mm.

Date of issue – August 10

Active week ahead

8th, 5th and 4th monsoon spells coming!

Rain claims one more live in Gujranwala!

Yesterday’s low pressure has weakened into an upper air cyclonic circulation over the same area. Another over north-eastern India and adjoining Bay of Bengal, likely to move WSW. Western disturbance ’17′ persists over the same area.

The seventh monsoon spell could cause more thunder/lightning with rainfall in next 48 hours, a new eighth spell would start from August 12 night/August 13 in the northern areas including Islamabad, Lahore, Gujranwala and other adjoining cities. During this coming week, there are chances (45%) of isolated heavy rainfall in north-eastern Punjab, Azad Kashmir, few parts of north-western Khyber Pakhtunkhwa including Islamabad. PWP forecasts the chance of eighth monsoon spell hitting the northern areas to‘extremely high’. On August 11 night/August 12, fifth monsoon spell may start in the central areas (south Punjab) as there are chances of light showers therefore PWP forecast the chance of 5th monsoon spell hitting south Punjab to ‘moderate’. 

The upper air cyclonic circulation has not completly dissipated as it was expected earlier though it has started to moving WSW as forecasted due to which there are chances of fourth monsoon spell in some eastern parts of Sindh including Mirpur Khas, Sanghar, Umerkot, Tharparkar, Sukkur, Gotki, Khairpur and few adjoining areas where rainfall could occur on August 12 night/August 13. Other areas of Sindh including Karachi and Hyderabad would remain dry with chances of drizzle. Hence PWP forecasts the fourth spell hitting Sindh to ‘moderate’. Active rainy pattern is expected in some parts of the country especially northern areas during the coming week. Following is the monsoon rainfall that occurred in some cities of the country during the seventh spell;

• Islamabad got 11 mm.
• Punjab
• Lahore got 42 mm.
• Gujranwala got 39 mm.
• Rawalpindi got 9 mm.
• Khyber Pakhutunkhwa
• Parachinar got 20 mm.
• Kashmir
• Kotli got 9 mm.

Date of issue – August 9

Seventh spell started in the northern parts of the country as forecasted!

Yesterday’s low pressure has weakened over Madya Pradesh and adjoining area. Western Disturbance ’17′ has entered the northern parts of the country.

As forecasted on August 5 by PWP, the seventh monsoon spell has hit the northern areas of the country with strong winds (above 65 – 75 km/h) and heavy rainfall on August 8 late. More thunder/lightning with rainfall (45% chance of isolated heavy falls) over Azad Kashmir and surrounding area including Islamabad and north-eastern Punjab including Lahore till two to three days. Rain/showers are also likely in Gilgit, FATA and extreme northern areas. Isolated showers may also occur in south Punjab, PWP would mention the fifth spell in south Punjab on August 10. Dry weather is expected elsewhere that is Balochistan and Sindh, however there are chances of drizzle in south-eastern Sindh due to monsoon clouds coming from Gujarat.

Showers along with gale-force winds have killed four people in Gujranwala. Following is the monsoon rainfall that occurred in northern Pakistan due to the seventh monsoon spell;

• Islamabad got 51 mm.
• Punjab
• Gujrat got 65 mm.
• Murree got 51 mm.
• Mangla got 32 mm.
• Rawalpindi got 30 mm.
• Sialkot got 19 mm.
• Kashmir
• Kotli got 50 mm.

Date of issue – August 8

Yesterday’s low pressure over Madya Pradesh and adjoining area, persists. It is sending moisture to the eastern parts of the country. A small thundercloud is over south Punjab-upper Sindh and adjoining India. The low pressure is weakening as of August 8 and could become unimportant after 36 – 48 hours though it was expected to move WSW but it has moved in a complete west direction during the last 12 hours. Western winds are seen over extreme northern areas. PWP maintains the chance of seventh spell in northern half to ‘extremely high’ from August 8 late/August 9. There are chances of drizzle/isolated showers in south Punjab, north-eastern and eastern Sindh as third spell continues in Sindh, while thunder/lightning with showers in northern Punjab. Following is the monsoon rainfall that occurred in Sindh due to the third spell;

• Mithi got 13 mm.
• Chhor got 4 mm.

Date of issue – August 7

”Third spell continues in Sindh”

PWP upgrades the seventh spell to ‘extremely high’ in North Punjab!

Yesterday’s low pressure over east Madya Pradesh, has now moved over central Madya Pradesh and adjoining area. It is sending thunderclouds into south-eastern Sindh and adjoining upper parts, while activity along eastern parts of Punjab has also been observed. The low pressure would start to weaken by August 8 as it moves WSW. Yesterday’s upper air cyclonic circulations over north-west India has become unimportant, fresh UAC has formed over north-eastern Indian coast. A fresh western disturbance ’17′ might reach the extreme northern area on August 8.

As the low pressure’s moisture continues to affect the eastern parts of the country, drizzle/isolated showers are likely in these parts especially south-eastern Sindh (Umer Kot and Tharparkar district) and adjoining upper parts (Khairpur and adjoining Sukkur district) till 48 hours as third spell has continued in Sindh though the western winds have moved away from the province, the low’s moisture continues to send clouds. PWP upgrades the chance of seventh spell in northern half to ‘extremely high’ from August 8/August 9.

Date of issue – August 6

Low pressure seen from Satellite

Yesterday’s low pressure over Jharkhand has moved over central India (north-east Madya Pradesh and adjoining area), this system is expected to move in a WSW direction and weaken over eastern Gujarat and adjoining Rajasthan (Affect on Pak would be mentioned on August 7). An upper air cyclonic circulations persists over north-west India. Western winds are seen moving over some parts of the country.

Mostly dry weather is expected in the country. The fourth monsoon spell in south Punjab has caused scattered moderate rainfall while third spell in Sindh has caused drizzle in upper parts. PWP upgrades the chance of seventh spell in northern half to ‘very high’ from August 8/August 9. Following is the rainfall that occurred in some cities of Pakistan;

• Balochistan
• Sibbi got 57 mm.
• South Punjab
• Bahawalnagar got 18 mm.
• Rahimyar Khan got 14 mm.
• Sindh
• Moen-Jo-Daro got 3 mm.
• Larkana got TR.

Date of issue – August 5

Sixth spell ends – PWP forecasts 7th spell to ”high”

Low pressure area has moved into Jharkand and adjoining areas. An upper air cyclonic circulations persists over north-west India. Western disturbance ’16′ moves northwards.

There are chances of rainfall with moderate falls in south Punjab in the form of fourth spell on August 5 night/August 6, PWP maintains the chances to ‘extremely high’. There are also chances of showers in north-west Sindh on August 6/August 7 in the form of third spell, PWP maintains the chance to ‘moderate’, chances of drizzle/isolated shower in eastern and coastal Sindh. The sixth monsoon spell has ended in the country, chances of one to two passing showers in extreme northern half, most areas would remain dry. PWP forecasts the chance of seventh spell in northern half to ‘high’ from August 8/August 9. Following is the rainfall that occurred in some cities of Pakistan during the sixth spell;

• Punjab
• Gujranwala got 83 mm.
• Chakwal got 71 mm.
• D.I.Khan got 49 mm.
• Lahore got 47 mm.
• Sialkot got 39 mm.
• Balochistan
• Zhob got 12 mm.
• Kashmir
• Kotli 5 mm.

Date of issue – August 4

Significant rainfall occurred in North Pak as forecasted by PWP

6th spell losing strength

An upper air cyclonic circulation has formed over north-west India. Low pressure persists over north-west Bay of Bengal and adjoining western coast of India. As the low pressure would move over central India and weaken there, moisture incursion along with the moisture of westerlies could cause rainfall (mostly light) in parts of Sindh on August 6/August 7, hence PWP upgrades the chance of third monsoon spell hitting Sindh to ’moderate’ at the moment. The fourth monsoon spell may occur in central areas (south Punjab) from August 4/August 5, PWP maintains chance of the 4th spell in central areas to ’extremely high’. Western disturbance ’16′ has over northern Pakistan.Following is the monsoon rainfall that occurred in mostly northern areas from sixth monsoon spell (very heavy rainfall occurred);

• Islamabad got 142 mm.
• Punjab
• Gujranwala got 123 mm.
• Mangla got 103 mm.
• Rawalpindi got 75 mm.
• Lahore got 79 mm.

Date of issue – August 3

Low pressure in Bay of Bengal

Sixth monsoon spell started – Significant rainfall could occur in north Pak  in 24 to 36 hours!

Chance of rainfall in Sindh to ‘poor’ on August 6/August 7

An upper air cyclonic circulation over eastern India persists. Yesterday’s UAC over north-west Bay of Bengal has intensified into a low pressure area (weather system) at the lowest pressure of 1008 mbar. As the low pressure would move over central India and weaken there, moisture incursion could cause rainfall (mostly light) in parts of Sindh on August 6/August 7, hence PWP forecasts the chance of third monsoon spell hitting Sindh to ‘poor’ at the moment. The fourth monsoon spell may occur in central areas (south Punjab) from August 4/August 5, PWP upgrades chance of the 4th spell in central areas to ’extremely high’. Western disturbance ’16′ has moved into northern Pakistan.

The sixth monsoon spell that started from August 2 mid-night (forecasted by PWP) in the northern areas would continue till August 5 evening/night, the sixth spell has intensified from the coming western disturbance. There are chances (65%) of isolated heavy falls near the area around Azad Kashmir and north-western Khyber Pakhtunkhwa including Islamabad and Peshawar with fast to strong winds (56 km/h – 60 km/h) due to the interaction between western and eastern winds as strong thunderclouds on August 3 late/August 4 could form. The fourth spell may cause light rainfall, chances of scattered moderate falls in south Punjab from August 4/August 5. Following is the monsoon rainfall that occurred in mostly northern areas from sixth monsoon spell;

• Khyber Pakhtunkhwa
• Balakot got 49 mm.
• Azad Kashmir
• Muzaffarabad got 26 mm.
• Murree got 25 mm.

Date of issue – August 2

‘Chance of low pressure forming in the Bay of Bengal’

5th spell ended on August 2

6th spell (north – very high) and 4th spell (central areas – high)

An upper air cyclonic circulation over western India has dissipated. Another over UAC over central and eastern India also weakening now. Another UAC has also formed in north-west Bay of Bengal, it is could intensify further. PWP upgrades the chance of sixth monsoon spell in the northern areas from August 2 night/August 3 to ‘extremely high’ while the fourth monsoon spell may occur in central areas (south Punjab) from August 4/August 5, PWP upgrades chance of the 4th spell in central areas to ’very high’. Western disturbance ’16′ is seen persisting over north-eastern Afghanistan and adjoining northern Pakistan as it moves eastwards.

From August 2 night/August 3, a fresh spell (6th spell) would start in the northern areas as the monsoon moisture would be intensified from the coming western disturbance that would start its effect from August 2 evening. There are chances (45%) of isolated heavy falls near the area around Azad Kashmir and north-western Khyber Pakhtunkhwa including Islamabad and Peshawar with fast winds due to the interaction between western and eastern winds as strong thunderclouds could form during the 6th spell. The fourth spell may cause light rainfall, chances of moderate falls in south Punjab from August 4/August 5.

Large parts of Balochistan would remain dry, east central as well as few northern areas may witness some cloud. Due to continuous cloud formation over Gujarat, there are chances of drizzle in eastern and coastal Sindh while upper and central Sindh would remain dry with passing clouds. Following is the monsoon rainfall that occurred in mostly northern areas from fifth monsoon spell;

• Khyber Pakhtunkhwa
• Balakot got 33 mm.
• Parachinar got 4 mm.
• Azad Kashmir
• Muzaffarabad got 45 mm.

Date of issue – August 1

5th spell continues – weakening now

6th spell (north – very high) and 4th spell (central areas – high)

An upper air cyclonic circulation persists over western India, it is weakening slowly. Another over UAC over central and eastern India. PWP forecasts the chance of sixth monsoon spell in the northern areas from August 2 evening/night/August 3 to ‘very high’while the fourth monsoon spell may occur in central areas (south Punjab) from August 4/August 5, PWP forecasts chance of the 4th spell in central areas to ‘high’. PWP drops the third monsoon spell in Sindh after the situation deteriorated further, a new date would be given soon. Western disturbance ’16′ is seen persisting over north-eastern Afghanistan.

Currently fifth monsoon spell is causing isolated rainfall with thunder/lightning in the northern areas that is likely to subside from August 2 morning. From August 2 evening/night/August 3, a fresh spell (6th spell) would start in the northern areas as the monsoon moisture would be intensified from the coming western disturbance that would start its effect from August 2 evening. There are chances (45%) of isolated heavy falls near the area around Azad Kashmir and north-western Khyber Pakhtunkhwa with fast winds due to the interaction between western and eastern winds as strong thunderclouds could form during the 6th spell. The fourth spell may cause light rainfall, chances of moderate falls in south Punjab from August 4/August 5.

Large parts of Balochistan would remain dry, east central as well as few northern areas may witness some cloud. Due to continuous cloud formation over Gujarat, there are chances of drizzle in eastern and coastal Sindh while upper and central Sindh would remain dry with passing clouds. Following is the monsoon rainfall that occurred in mostly northern areas from fifth monsoon spell;

• Khyber Pakhtunkhwa
• Abbottabad got 27 mm.
• Parachinar got 10 mm.
• Punjab
• Rawalpindi got 18 mm.
• Murree got 13 mm.
• Azad Kashmir
• Kotli got 11 mm.
• Muzaffarabad got 8 mm.