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What did not pour – would pour now!
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Heavy rainfall across the country?
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Monsoon to gain peak before ending!
Karachi sunset on August 30 after rain
The country has entered the month of September which is usually remembered as the month in which the monsoon starts to withdraw from the sub-continent. Heavy rainfall in September is quite uncommon in the western sub-continent especially Pakistan where usually the intensity of rains start to weaken during the first half of September. However since last two years that is 2010 and 2011, the country has observed widespread rainfall in this month including the dry areas like Sindh and south Punjab, it seems as if 2012 will also join those ranks as widespread rainfall is expected in the country in the month of September.
Factors – Present Conditions
*Western trough ’20’ present over the northern areas, likely to persist till this week.
*Low pressure has formed in the Bay of Bengal and adjoining central-eastern coast of India.
*Upper air cyclonic circulations present over northern Arabian sea and adjoining Gujarat and Sindh.
Westerlies are being observed to increase their presence over the northern parts of the country while easterlies would flow from India to central and southern parts of Pakistan this week.
Latest condition of the ‘Dust Cloud’
“Green signal for rain!”
Complete dissipation on September 7
The atmoshperic rain blocking conditions that had gripped the country since the beginning of the monsoon has started to dissipate over many parts of the country, although such conditions dissipated over the northern areas in August during the ninth spell which resulted in widespread heavy rainfall there but central and southern parts had remained under its grip till now however latest charts indicate that the atmospheric rain-blocking cloud has started weakening hence giving a green signal to the monsoon moisture over India to move into Pakistan freely which would result in heavy precipitation over the country. Sindh, north-eastern Balochistan and south Punjab are also now free of these rain-blocking conditions which could experience some heavy rainfall. However the sad part is that much of Balochistan including Gwadar is still under the grip of this condition. Overall the situation has improved.
Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP)’s forecast
“Notice: This is the forecast from Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP), we are 70% confident with this prediction. There will be slight variations in our forecast as certain meteorological factors develop and fade as time passes by and these factors are too isolated to be noticed on numerical charts or models. According to various meteorological parameters this forecast has been made.”
Possible condition on September 5/September 6
- The Article would be updated if necessary!
Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP) successfully predicted the onset of all monsoon spells in northern and central parts of the country while PWP experienced difficulty in predicting few spells in Sindh. Overall PWP’s performance had been much better than last year.
As of 8:00 pm PKT September 3, Various models, numerical charts and other meteorological parameters observed by PWP for the track of low pressure indicates that;
*The upper air cyclonic circulations over north-west Bay of Bengal would intensify into a low pressure on September 3 and move rapidly inland. On September 5/September 6, it could be over eastern Rajasthan and adjoining area. During the same time, it could have interaction with the upper air cyclonic circulations in the Arabian sea causing some thunderstorms to form near Gujarat and adjoining Sindh. The weather system at the moment is not showing a mature track however it might move westwards/WNW. The low pressure could also further intensify during its life time. The exact date of dissipation varies from model to model.
Tenth monsoon spell (September 2 – September )
Circled area shows the chance of more than 100 mm rain
“Warning: There are 45% chance of scattered heavy downpours over west-north-western Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and adjoining Punjab, while few areas of north-eastern Punjab as well middle of this week. Strong thunderclouds could form there that has the potential to drop more than 100 mm there due to the interaction of western and eastern winds. Local flooding could occur in these areas on September 5/September 6.“
The tenth spell that in the northern half started from September 2 has brought scattered moderate downpours to parts of northern Punjab and adjoining areas, the rainfall that was recorded since September 2 is given below;
- Islamabad got 183 mm.
- Kamra got 59 mm.
Islamabad city has already crossed the monthly average of September with just one wave of tenth spell as 161 mm rainfall occurred on September 2 night/September 3 morning.
Islamabad
More rain is likely in the capital as heavy downpours could occur during this week. The tenth spell would continue till five to six days with few intervals. Rain will be accompanied by thunder/lightning and strong winds (56 km/h).
Mercury is expected in Islamabad;
- 30°C to 33 °C in Islamabad.
Punjab
In Northern Punjab: Lahore, Faisalabad, Murree, Gujranwal, Rawalpindi, Sargodha, Sialkot and other adjoining cities. The tenth spell of monsoon would start from September 3 night/September 4. Rainfall will be isolated heavy in intensity while north-eastern parts could (45%) get scattered heavy downpour. Rain will be accompained by thunder and fast winds.
Following is the temperature forecast for Northern Punjab;
- 33 °C to 37 °C in Lahore.
- 35°C to 39 °C in Faisalabad.
- 26°C to 31°C in Murree.
Seventh monsoon spell
In Southern Punjab: Bahawalpur, Bahawalnagar, Multan, Rahim Yar Khan, D. G. Khan and other adjoining cities. There are chances of rainfall on September 4 night as sixth spell would be nearby the area. There is some possibility of isolated heavy rainfall in south-eastern and western parts of south Punjab during this week, more over the rainfall would be moderate in intensity. Hence PWP maintains the chance of seventh spell hitting south Punjab to ‘extremely high’.
In Southern Punjab, temperatures will be higher than Northern Punjab;
- 33 °C to 39°C in Multan.
- 35 °C to 38 °C in Bahawalpur.
Sixth monsoon spell
“Warning: There are 25% chance of isolated to scattered heavy downpours over south-eastern parts of Sindh and adjoining coastal parts, while few areas of upper Sindh as well middle of this week. There is a slight possibility that rainfall exceeding 100 mm would fall in northern Arabian sea.”
Sindh
In Upper Sindh: Sukkur, Larkana, Jacobabad, Kashmore, Nawabshah and other adjoining cities. From September 4/September 5, rainfall with thunder/lightning and fast winds could occur in upper Sindh. There is also a possibility 25% of heavy downpour during this week. PWP maintains the chance of sixth monsoon spell across Sindh to ‘extremely high’.
Following is the range of temperatures expected in this part.
- 37 °C to 40 °C in Sukkur.
- 36 °C to 39 °C also in Larkana.
- 35 °C to 38 °C in Nawabshah.
In South-eastern Sindh: Mirpur khas, Umerkot, Tharparkar, Badin and Hyderabad. The sixth monsoon spell could cause rainfall with thunder/lightning and fast winds with 25% chance of isolated to scattered heavy downpour during this week. The rains would start from September 4.
Temperatures are mostly stationary in this part due to absence of heat waves and rains.
- 35 °C to 38 °C in Hyderabad.
In coastal Sindh: Karachi, Thatta, Keti, Shah Bandar and other coastal localities. The sixth monsoon spell could cause rainfall with thunder/lightning and fast winds with 25% chance of isolated to scattered heavy downpour during this week including Karachi especially on September 5/September 6 till this week.
Due to frequent cloud over and fast winds the mercury in Karachi and other coastal cities has remained unchanged since July 1;
- 31 °C to 36°C in Karachi.
Monsoon deaths toll
29 deaths have occurred since August 27 mainly in the northern areas, keeping the intensity of fresh monsoon spell in mind there is fear that the death toll would easily rise, PWP advises people not to go on rooftops during the time of thunderstorms and strong winds.
Monsoon to withdraw soon!
It must be noted that another spell might occur in northern areas before the monsoon starts to withdraw from the country during the third week of September, chances of another spell is slim at the moment in south Punjab and Sindh.
Poll of the week
Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP) wants to know that which city will be the all monsoon toppers, your vote is necessary;
Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP) 
Thank You so Much Babar Bhai for the hard Work you have Done in making this.. I am Sure That as Usual your Forecasts will be 100% correct if There will be Allah’s will… 🙂 Stay Blessed and Keep it up 🙂
Your welcome..
Very useful article, i must inform my friends and colleagues about the prediction over KPK as they dont much believe in heavy downpours to occur here in Peshawar!
and Thanks for posting my photographs.:)
Your welcome and thank you..
Baber bhai Mirpurkhas City m is spell m kitni mm rain expected hai???
Cant tell exact quantity of an area but heavy rainfall would occur.
love u babar bhai 😀
oh, good 🙂
Salam Babar bhai rahim yar khan main bht garmi hai aj kal kia ap bta sktay hain kay kia koi rain kay chances hain heavy rain kay plz inform me about this
Walikum assalam, yes there are chances…
koi exact date
tonight/tomorrow, it also comes in the south Punjab section..
oh, that was the cause (rain-blocking conditions) I was wondering why at a sudden various websites have started indicating thundery rain for Multan 🙂 Please make a separate article explaining these rain-blocking, dust cloud conditions that hampered rains in certain parts of country.
I would try my best..
badal garaj rhe hain !
islamabad has already received 167mm against the monthly normal of 129mm (sept).
Islamabad’s record monthly rainfall for september is 279mm (acc. to PMD). is islamabad is bracing for for a new record ???? has this system the potential to drop 250/300mm more rain in islamabad ???
It may reach around 279 mm…depends upon next two to three days..
babar bhai rahim yar khan kay bray main bta dain plzzzzzzz
It is lightning but no rain in karachi yet . Is rain expected tonight after midnight or in the morning ?
Showers again occurred during this morning in some parts, more rainfall is also expected…
Hi, Babar, Thanks for sharing all these information with all of us here and keeping us updated with the weather forecast, Babar Do you think the rains starting from the 4 or the 5th will pour enuff water in karachi which we usually get every year. As i have seen some forecasts of really heavy rainfalls in karachi and other coastal cities. Is this september going to be record breaking one?. monsoon forecast for south asia shows quite a lot of precipitation in the coastal belt. I will be waiting for your opinion on the current forecast and do let me know of any possibilities of low or tropical storm development forecast for the arabian sea in the monsoon or post monsoon season.Thanks
Thank you Shahbaz – There are chances of heavy downpour in Karachi, the monthly normal is only 10 mm. The city could get above monthly average easily. As of now there is no chances of tropical storm in the Arabian sea however the UAC which is near Gujarat and Sindh coast and adjoining Arabian sea might intensify into a low pressure and move westwards.
Thank u so much babar bhai
huge thunder cloud has formed WNW of karachi i can see it it is so immense
i have taken pics of it tell me how should i upload it on this website ??? i want to share it with you
Alot of thunder activity in my area (Safurah).It’s hot as hell here. What are the updates ?
Really dark nimbus clouds SE and E of my location. Light rain started here with alot thunder.
Extremely Heavy rain in my area!
Heavy rain stopped for 5 minutes then again Heavy rtain started and its very heavy.
I’m amazed there’s not a power outage in my area. Oh and its still raining heavily. 😀
hahaha 🙂
thanks babar bhai aj rahim yar khan main rain hoi hai aur horahi hai
welcome.
It has rained in my area nawabshah,it was moderate, rain started from 12:15 to 12:35,but drizzle is occuring yet,,
any chance of rain tonight in nawabshah? And is there fear of flood from coming rains?
there are more chances of local flooding in se and adjoining coastal sindh than in upper sindh
Rain started here at 2PM and lasted till 4PM. It was heavy !
@KM : The weather is really calm right n0w. There is almost no wind. PMD’s satellite image is sh0wing thunderclouds all over Sindh. Whats next ?
What’s next?
some samose, some kachoriyan and some outing, enjoy fragnat1c 🙂
Well, That’s what I’m d09ng 😀
@KM : Updates ?
Posting soon…..
@Fragnat1c lite nahi hogi yar waha …… I m also waitin for the updates ????
Posting soon…….
I guess so.
Will it rain after midnite what do you think ???
Lightning show goin on here :p
I think it will rain tomorrow after 12PM.
@KM : No thunderstorm developement near Karachi still ? Heavy rain was forecasted today but no sign of sign till n0w.
Am I the only one here ? o.0
No you have me ………. im hea also observing the weather as we speak
Pakmet pwp both had predicted heavy rain in all over sindh but in nawabshah situation is so disappointing and irritating because still no storm has developed and fast winds from north are dispersing the clouds,k.m the spell has weakned or what? And pmd satelite image is giving late information,at this moment, time is around 3 but pmd satelite image is showing image of 1,how one can know that what is happening now.
Very strong system of rains is coming.iam wondering how situation changes in few mintues
@waseem
which system waseem…….KM plz update about rain. Huge nimbus clouds are their in east but no proper rain clouds coming to khi
@shabibraza
i was saying that dark rainy clouds are coming intn central sindh so i termed it as strong rain system.hope u understand! Well”moderate shower occured in nawabshah,what about khi?
Low humidity, Fast winds, What’s happening ? I don’t think it will rain today.
There are just passing Nimbus clouds, no thunderstorm developement near Karachi.
very disappointing.
Any updates would be very helpful from anyone. Where is Babar bhai ? :S
@Waseem : Nimbus clouds ARE rain clouds but they’re just not ready to stay.The wind and humidity is far from bieng favourable for a thunderstorm developement. Sad !
Wait, I think there’s some hope :p Theres a cumulus congestus process taking place here as Nimbus clouds are turning into cumulonimbus clouds 😀 I’m not sure what’ll happen but let’s wait and see.
Yup ! there’s a cumulonimbus calvus outside my house. It’s beautiful ❤
Looking at the Calvus, I think there’s a thunderstorm developement near Karachi 😀
C’mon man ! Am I the only one here ?
Im also here 🙂
Ya cumulonimbus clouds are spotted i can see the also coming from east any chance of rain ???? @km updates we want to know
Nothing much buddy…
No chance of rain right now. Chance of rain tonight.
Rain to start soon I guess ! 😀
Yes…
but when soon ??? in the nite or eveing and will it be heavy cause Pmd downgraded the rains in Karachi to just 3.7 is that true Km????
it has already rained 35 mm yesterday, more rain is likely after some hours…
EVEning ! he whole sky is covered with Dark gray cumulus Clouds here. Heavy thunder activity. Shukar ha ALLAH ka 😀
Nice….
Babar bhai agye :O
You have also come after a long time 😀
Yes that’s the only thing i don’t get. PMD is showing THUNDER RAINS from thu-sat in the Pakistani cities forecast but showing only 3.7mm rain in the weekly forecast :s
Have they gone mad ? o.0
HmmmmMm 😀
@KM : I was here all the time reading all you guys’ comments but i was very disappointed of this year’s monsoon thats why 😦
Yes that has been a boring monsoon season…
Clouds have formed a plain surface in the N. You know what happens when clouds form a plain gray surface 😀
n0w that the monsoon has returned before ending, so have I 😀
Heavy rain has started here 😀
Drizzle here…
Very heavy rain n0w 😮 The droplets are so thick 😮
nothing here till now
Its always raining here in murree 😛
@KM : Is it me or are the clouds very dangerous today ?
They were, low lying clouds..,..
its raining but not at all heavy . i might be wrong but dont think its going to continue for too long
Rain stopped completely, I can see the 2nd wave coming. Very scary looking cumulonimbus clouds coming from the E.
OMG these cumulonimbus are heavier than the 1st ones :O
Babar bhai, want to know whether this weather system has already weakened ? also do u expect any more rain in karachi on Friday and Saturday ?
The system has not weakened much…
Rain started again 😀
where which area
Can you tell me that has the system intensified as you were talking abt the intensification of this system please ans in detail
it has intensified to some extent…
Sir i want to know that pakmet has downgraded their forecast from widespread rains to scatterd why? Is the spell has changed track or loosed intensity? And pwp said that there are more chances of heavy rain in se sindh but till now central,upper,and coastal sindh has good rains rather than SE!
I dont know why they have downgraded the rain… About SE Sindh, rain has been more frequent there than upper Sindh however the thunderclouds are gaining intensity after passing through SE Sindh however there are chances of good rain there as well..
updates km ??? what are the chances of intensification and rain ???
Check monsoon of Pakistan…
today again the weather of rahim yar khan is partly cloudy and warmer than tomorrow babar bhai is there any chance of heavy rain on friday the pak met is showing heavy rain plz tell me about friday babar bhai
At the moment its empty, but there are thunderclouds nearby. Hopefully tomorrow rain could occur..
plz tell me is there any hope for rain heavily Saturday and Friday. Please tell me soon
Babar bhai
The spell is weakening now but rain could occur again..Heavy showers occurred on Friday morning..
We received heavy downpour in peshawar today, still drizzling..:D
Babar bhai whats the forecast for kpk for next two days?
Cloudcover likely, with chances of heavy showers tonight/tomorrow..
@KM : Are there chances of heavy rain in Karachi on 11th and 12th of september ?
Almost all sites are sh0wing heavy rain in Karachi on 11th and 12th.
Not much..
Sir some sites are showing rain in central sindh till monday do u agree? And what about low pressure,has it weakned further?
Low pressure are weakening, the rainfall would lose intensity by Sep 8 night/Sep 9 morning..
Any thunderstorm developement ?
No yet… Passing clouds over Karachi..
No yar i am waitin for thunderstorm to develop but nuthing as till now
So, can i suppose that there won’t be any rain in Karachi n0w ?
Any Updates ?
Monsoon of Pakistan updated..
Hi Babar I can see some cloud formation near karachi i hope it rains tonight, How much karachi got in these 2 days i think not more than 40 mm but some sites are forecasting about inch and a half in next 2 days i hope it comes true. What do you say babar???. Any more rains in next week or so any thing else happening some where in the bay or the arabian sea????. I think mosoon is going to depart late this year. What do you say.
Hey Shahbaz – The intensity of rains would surely weaken once the UAC/Low over Arabian sea dissipates. More chances of rain in the city, nothing happening in the Bay nor ARB, monsoon would depart by third/fourth week. Karachi got rain on September 5 that was 41 mm while 65 mm on September 6.
Thanks Babar I think there are chances of some rain tonight. As clouds are over south east sindh and moving towards karachi i suppose.
Thanks Babar, CLouds are still over south east Sindh and hope we get some thing tonight too as forecasted by some weather sites. Thanks a lot and hope all karachites get the pleasure of monsoon seasonal rains
.
Welcome..
Babar bhai Mirpurkhas City m next 3 days koi heavy rains expected hai?
Some heavy rain must have occurred, more chances are there as well..
Sir no storm came today.we got a sharp drizzle around 5 pm in nawabshah,it was winding very fast today but it is stuffy now” what do u say we will get a shower tonight/ tommorow or not?
Yes, today the cloud activity occurred only near eastern Sindh coast as Thatta and Badin got heavy showers, chances of rain in Nawabshah persists.
today heavy rain occured in rahim yar khan love u babar bhai
Good to see heavy rain in RYK 😀
some sites showing hwavy to very heavy rain in sukkur on sunday and monday what do u thinkpls reply
Chances of isolated heavy rainfall persists in SUkkur till 48 hours..
@ K.M, Allah ka shukar hai ke Karach mein barish huwi But Is barish mein woh baat hi nahi. Badal bohut kum hai aur khul kar bohut say ilako mein barish nahi huwi abhe tak. Phir bhe ALLAH ka shukar ke itni bhe huwi
Yes 🙂
Your website is becoming slow every day, Causing firefox slows and crashing. Why cannot you make it fast? It seems that there is much load on your website
I dont think my website is heavy.. use Google chrome..
no problem here shoabi, add more RAM ’cause FF is always memory hungry
Babar Bhai, Heavy rain has destroyed Samaro, Kot Ghulam Mohamad and adjacent areas and its raining here in Umerkot/Kunri area now rain is enough for crops we dont need it anymore. What is your prediction? Should we expect more rain today/tomorrow.
Tarique
9:20 AM Saturday
That is really bad but the sad part is that more rainfall is expected…
Babar Bhai raining is stop in Umerkot/Kunri and surrounding areas but more rain will be harmful for crops specially for Chilli.
I heard several times widespread rain is expected only in UPPER SINDH but in LOWER SINDH scattered rain is expected. Does it mean our area (Umerkot/Kunri) is not in danger zone? Or chances of heavy falls are less could you please clarify it?
It would match the intensity of the previous rains..and would weaken gradually..
Raining heavily in my area since 10:00 AM.
Where do u live Tarim? I m here at Gulistan-e-Jauhar and although it also rained here for about an hour but the intensity was quite low. It was more like a light rain.
So Babar, where do we stand now? Should we expect some heavy rain today in Karachi? Do u think the intensity is going to be more or lower than the previous rains? Can you also clarify why BBC is persisting with the THUNDERY SHOWERS forecast for Karachi for whole of the next week?
regards,
Roposh
The intensity is weakening everyday, although the chances of rainfall would persist.
@Roposh : I live at safurah. The rain was heavy in intensity here.
Yes, every website is forecasting rains for the next week too.
http://www.intellicast.com/Local/Weather.aspx?location=PKXX0008
@Everyone : Thunderclouds are c0ming fr0m SE n0w and fast winds suddenly started to blow from SE.
how heavy coming rain would be in sukkur and how many days days this system contnue?
Weather is very irritating in nawabshah,because no heavy rain from last day.it rained 9mm in city only last day.other parts witnessed only drizzle,,now at that time clouds are dispersing very quickly. Fast wind is also blowing,i thnk spell has now no effect in central sindh,what do u say k.m?
@Waseem : Chances of Very Heavy rain in central Sindh and Heavy rain in Coastal Sindh from tomorrow. BBC sh0wing Heavy rain/Thundery Shower till Monday in Karachi.
Towering Cumulonimbus clouds coming from NE now.
Congrats! Nawabshah has crossed 100 mm rain in this season,till now n.shah has received 107mm,16mm in august and 91 from that spell.more is falling at that time,,first time in history light is present here in storm,
Congratulations!
@KM : Fresh Low pressure over Western coast of India likely to merge with the Low near Sindh ? Is that a green signal for more heavy rains in Sindh ? 😀
The Low over western coast that formed on September 6, has now weakened to UAC. Heavy rains possible in eastern Sindh. More in monsoon of Pak
Please update monsoon of Pakistan page.
km; pls tell me how would be wheather in sukkur how many days rain continue ?
cloudy with chances of rainfall….with isolated heavy falls..
nonstop raining here since 2PM
Where do u live ?
Multan, Its still heavily raining here,
Moderate – Heavy rain here at Safurah.
Babar bhai Mirpurkhas City m 8th sep ki subha bus 15-20 minutes tak heavy rain hui us k bad poora din tip tip hoti rhi kya Mirpurkhas city m ab is spell m koi heavy rain expected hai our Mirpurkhas m kb tak mosam clear hony k chances hein???
Chances of heavy rain tonight till tomorrow evening..
babar bhai karachi may aaj ya kal koi Heavy rains possible hai.
Possible….
Sir plz tell us that there are Any chance of rain today in central sindh or spell has ended?
This spell is very much active, it would cause heavy rains in SE Sindh and coastal sindh, focus is on Sindh..
http://www.pmd.gov.pk/latest%20news/Latest%20News.html
VERY HEAVY RAIN FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY FOR WHOLE SINDH !