Pakistan Weather Update & Monsoon Alert (September 3 – September 17)

  • What did not pour – would pour now!

  • Heavy rainfall across the country?

  • Monsoon to gain peak before ending!

Karachi sunset on August 30 after rain

The country has entered the month of September which is usually remembered as the month in which the monsoon starts to withdraw from the sub-continent. Heavy rainfall in September is quite uncommon in the western sub-continent especially Pakistan where usually the intensity of rains start to weaken during the first half of September. However since last two years that is 2010 and 2011, the country has observed widespread rainfall in this month including the dry areas like Sindh and south Punjab, it seems as if 2012 will also join those ranks as widespread rainfall is expected in the country in the month of September. 

Factors – Present Conditions

*Western trough ’20’ present over the northern areas, likely to persist till this week.

*Low pressure has formed in the Bay of Bengal and adjoining central-eastern coast of India.

*Upper air cyclonic circulations present over northern Arabian sea and adjoining Gujarat and Sindh.

Westerlies are being observed to increase their presence over the northern parts of the country while easterlies would flow from India to central and southern parts of Pakistan this week.

Latest condition of the ‘Dust Cloud’

“Green signal for rain!”

Complete dissipation on September 7

The atmoshperic rain blocking conditions that had gripped the country since the beginning of the monsoon has started to dissipate over many parts of the country, although such conditions dissipated over the northern areas in August during the ninth spell which resulted in widespread heavy rainfall there but central and southern parts had remained under its grip till now however latest charts indicate that the atmospheric rain-blocking cloud has started weakening hence giving a green signal to the monsoon moisture over India to move into Pakistan freely which would result in heavy precipitation over the country. Sindh, north-eastern Balochistan and south Punjab are also now free of these rain-blocking conditions which could experience some heavy rainfall. However the sad part is that much of Balochistan including Gwadar is still under the grip of this condition. Overall the situation has improved.

Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP)’s forecast

“Notice: This is the forecast from Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP), we are 70% confident with this prediction. There will be slight variations in our forecast as certain meteorological factors develop and fade as time passes by and these factors are too isolated to be noticed on numerical charts or models. According to various meteorological parameters this forecast has been made.”

Possible condition on September 5/September 6

  • The Article would be updated if necessary!

Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP) successfully predicted the onset of all monsoon spells in northern and central parts of the country while PWP experienced difficulty in predicting few spells in Sindh. Overall PWP’s performance had been much better than last year.

As of 8:00 pm PKT September 3, Various models, numerical charts and other meteorological parameters observed by PWP for the track of low pressure indicates that;

*The upper air cyclonic circulations over north-west Bay of Bengal would intensify into a low pressure on September 3 and move rapidly inland. On September 5/September 6, it could be over eastern Rajasthan and adjoining area. During the same time, it could have interaction with the upper air cyclonic circulations in the Arabian sea causing some thunderstorms to form near Gujarat and adjoining Sindh. The weather system at the moment is not showing a mature track however it might move westwards/WNW. The low pressure could also further intensify during its life time. The exact date of dissipation varies from model to model.

Tenth monsoon spell (September 2 – September )

Circled area shows the chance of more than 100 mm rain

“Warning: There are 45% chance of scattered heavy downpours over west-north-western Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and adjoining Punjab, while few areas of north-eastern Punjab as well middle of this week.  Strong thunderclouds could form there that has the potential to drop more than 100 mm there due to the interaction of western and eastern winds. Local flooding could occur in these areas on September 5/September 6.

The tenth spell that in the northern half started from September 2 has brought scattered moderate downpours to parts of northern Punjab and adjoining areas, the rainfall that was recorded since September 2 is given below;

  • Islamabad got 183 mm.
  • Kamra got 59 mm.

Islamabad city has already crossed the monthly average of September with just one wave of tenth spell as 161 mm rainfall occurred on September 2 night/September 3 morning.

Islamabad

More rain is likely in the capital as heavy downpours could occur during this week. The tenth spell would continue till five to six days with few intervals. Rain will be accompanied by thunder/lightning and strong winds (56 km/h).

Mercury is expected in Islamabad;

  • 30°C to 33 °C in Islamabad.

Punjab

In Northern Punjab: Lahore, Faisalabad, Murree, Gujranwal, Rawalpindi, Sargodha, Sialkot and other adjoining cities. The tenth spell of monsoon would start from September 3 night/September 4. Rainfall will be isolated heavy in intensity while north-eastern parts could (45%) get scattered heavy downpour. Rain will be accompained by thunder and fast winds.

Following is the temperature forecast for Northern Punjab;

  • 33 °C to 37 °C in Lahore.
  • 35°C to 39 °C in Faisalabad.
  • 26°C to 31°C in Murree.

Seventh monsoon spell

In Southern Punjab: Bahawalpur, Bahawalnagar, Multan, Rahim Yar Khan, D. G. Khan and other adjoining cities. There are chances of rainfall on September 4 night as sixth spell would be nearby the area. There is some possibility of isolated heavy rainfall in south-eastern and western parts of south Punjab during this week, more over the rainfall would be moderate in intensity. Hence PWP maintains the chance of seventh spell hitting south Punjab to ‘extremely high’.

In Southern Punjab, temperatures will be higher than Northern Punjab;

  • 33 °C to 39°C in Multan.
  • 35 °C to 38 °C in  Bahawalpur.

Sixth monsoon spell

“Warning: There are 25% chance of isolated to scattered heavy downpours over south-eastern parts of Sindh and adjoining coastal parts, while few areas of upper Sindh as well middle of this week.  There is a slight possibility that rainfall exceeding 100 mm would fall in northern Arabian sea.”

Sindh

In Upper Sindh: Sukkur, Larkana, Jacobabad, Kashmore, Nawabshah and other adjoining  cities. From September 4/September 5, rainfall with thunder/lightning and fast winds could occur in upper Sindh. There is also a possibility 25% of heavy downpour during this week.  PWP maintains the chance of sixth monsoon spell across Sindh to ‘extremely high’.

Following is the range of temperatures expected in this part.

  • 37 °C to 40 °C in Sukkur.
  • 36 °C to 39 °C also in Larkana.
  • 35 °C to 38 °C in Nawabshah.

In South-eastern Sindh: Mirpur khas, Umerkot, Tharparkar, Badin and Hyderabad. The sixth monsoon spell could cause rainfall with thunder/lightning and fast winds with 25% chance of isolated to scattered heavy downpour during this week. The rains would start from September 4.

Temperatures are mostly stationary in this part due to absence of heat waves and rains.

  • 35 °C to 38 °C in Hyderabad.

In coastal Sindh: Karachi, Thatta, Keti, Shah Bandar and other coastal localities.  The sixth monsoon spell could cause rainfall with thunder/lightning and fast winds with 25% chance of isolated to scattered heavy downpour during this week including Karachi especially on September 5/September 6 till this week.

Due to frequent cloud over and fast winds the mercury in Karachi and other coastal cities has remained unchanged since July 1;

  • 31 °C to 36°C in Karachi.

Monsoon deaths toll

29 deaths have occurred since August 27 mainly in the northern areas, keeping the intensity of fresh monsoon spell in mind there is fear that the death toll would easily rise, PWP advises people not to go on rooftops during the time of thunderstorms and strong winds.

Monsoon to withdraw soon!

It must be noted that another spell might occur in northern areas before the monsoon starts to withdraw from the country during the third week of September, chances of another spell is slim at the moment in south Punjab and Sindh.

Poll of the week

Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP) wants to know that which city will be the all monsoon toppers, your vote is necessary;

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265 thoughts on “Pakistan Weather Update & Monsoon Alert (September 3 – September 17)

  1. Very useful article, i must inform my friends and colleagues about the prediction over KPK as they dont much believe in heavy downpours to occur here in Peshawar!
    and Thanks for posting my photographs.:)

  2. oh, that was the cause (rain-blocking conditions) I was wondering why at a sudden various websites have started indicating thundery rain for Multan 🙂 Please make a separate article explaining these rain-blocking, dust cloud conditions that hampered rains in certain parts of country.

  3. islamabad has already received 167mm against the monthly normal of 129mm (sept).
    Islamabad’s record monthly rainfall for september is 279mm (acc. to PMD). is islamabad is bracing for for a new record ???? has this system the potential to drop 250/300mm more rain in islamabad ???

  4. Hi, Babar, Thanks for sharing all these information with all of us here and keeping us updated with the weather forecast, Babar Do you think the rains starting from the 4 or the 5th will pour enuff water in karachi which we usually get every year. As i have seen some forecasts of really heavy rainfalls in karachi and other coastal cities. Is this september going to be record breaking one?. monsoon forecast for south asia shows quite a lot of precipitation in the coastal belt. I will be waiting for your opinion on the current forecast and do let me know of any possibilities of low or tropical storm development forecast for the arabian sea in the monsoon or post monsoon season.Thanks

    • Thank you Shahbaz – There are chances of heavy downpour in Karachi, the monthly normal is only 10 mm. The city could get above monthly average easily. As of now there is no chances of tropical storm in the Arabian sea however the UAC which is near Gujarat and Sindh coast and adjoining Arabian sea might intensify into a low pressure and move westwards.

  5. It has rained in my area nawabshah,it was moderate, rain started from 12:15 to 12:35,but drizzle is occuring yet,,
    any chance of rain tonight in nawabshah? And is there fear of flood from coming rains?

  6. @KM : The weather is really calm right n0w. There is almost no wind. PMD’s satellite image is sh0wing thunderclouds all over Sindh. Whats next ?

  7. Pakmet pwp both had predicted heavy rain in all over sindh but in nawabshah situation is so disappointing and irritating because still no storm has developed and fast winds from north are dispersing the clouds,k.m the spell has weakned or what? And pmd satelite image is giving late information,at this moment, time is around 3 but pmd satelite image is showing image of 1,how one can know that what is happening now.

      • @shabibraza
        i was saying that dark rainy clouds are coming intn central sindh so i termed it as strong rain system.hope u understand! Well”moderate shower occured in nawabshah,what about khi?

  8. Low humidity, Fast winds, What’s happening ? I don’t think it will rain today.
    There are just passing Nimbus clouds, no thunderstorm developement near Karachi.
    very disappointing.

  9. @Waseem : Nimbus clouds ARE rain clouds but they’re just not ready to stay.The wind and humidity is far from bieng favourable for a thunderstorm developement. Sad !

  10. Wait, I think there’s some hope :p Theres a cumulus congestus process taking place here as Nimbus clouds are turning into cumulonimbus clouds 😀 I’m not sure what’ll happen but let’s wait and see.

  11. Yes that’s the only thing i don’t get. PMD is showing THUNDER RAINS from thu-sat in the Pakistani cities forecast but showing only 3.7mm rain in the weekly forecast :s

  12. @KM : I was here all the time reading all you guys’ comments but i was very disappointed of this year’s monsoon thats why 😦

  13. Can you tell me that has the system intensified as you were talking abt the intensification of this system please ans in detail

  14. Sir i want to know that pakmet has downgraded their forecast from widespread rains to scatterd why? Is the spell has changed track or loosed intensity? And pwp said that there are more chances of heavy rain in se sindh but till now central,upper,and coastal sindh has good rains rather than SE!

    • I dont know why they have downgraded the rain… About SE Sindh, rain has been more frequent there than upper Sindh however the thunderclouds are gaining intensity after passing through SE Sindh however there are chances of good rain there as well..

  15. today again the weather of rahim yar khan is partly cloudy and warmer than tomorrow babar bhai is there any chance of heavy rain on friday the pak met is showing heavy rain plz tell me about friday babar bhai

  16. @KM : Are there chances of heavy rain in Karachi on 11th and 12th of september ?
    Almost all sites are sh0wing heavy rain in Karachi on 11th and 12th.

  17. Sir some sites are showing rain in central sindh till monday do u agree? And what about low pressure,has it weakned further?

  18. Hi Babar I can see some cloud formation near karachi i hope it rains tonight, How much karachi got in these 2 days i think not more than 40 mm but some sites are forecasting about inch and a half in next 2 days i hope it comes true. What do you say babar???. Any more rains in next week or so any thing else happening some where in the bay or the arabian sea????. I think mosoon is going to depart late this year. What do you say.

  19. Sir no storm came today.we got a sharp drizzle around 5 pm in nawabshah,it was winding very fast today but it is stuffy now” what do u say we will get a shower tonight/ tommorow or not?

  20. @ K.M, Allah ka shukar hai ke Karach mein barish huwi But Is barish mein woh baat hi nahi. Badal bohut kum hai aur khul kar bohut say ilako mein barish nahi huwi abhe tak. Phir bhe ALLAH ka shukar ke itni bhe huwi

  21. Your website is becoming slow every day, Causing firefox slows and crashing. Why cannot you make it fast? It seems that there is much load on your website

  22. Babar Bhai, Heavy rain has destroyed Samaro, Kot Ghulam Mohamad and adjacent areas and its raining here in Umerkot/Kunri area now rain is enough for crops we dont need it anymore. What is your prediction? Should we expect more rain today/tomorrow.

    Tarique

    9:20 AM Saturday

      • Babar Bhai raining is stop in Umerkot/Kunri and surrounding areas but more rain will be harmful for crops specially for Chilli.

        I heard several times widespread rain is expected only in UPPER SINDH but in LOWER SINDH scattered rain is expected. Does it mean our area (Umerkot/Kunri) is not in danger zone? Or chances of heavy falls are less could you please clarify it?

  23. Where do u live Tarim? I m here at Gulistan-e-Jauhar and although it also rained here for about an hour but the intensity was quite low. It was more like a light rain.

    So Babar, where do we stand now? Should we expect some heavy rain today in Karachi? Do u think the intensity is going to be more or lower than the previous rains? Can you also clarify why BBC is persisting with the THUNDERY SHOWERS forecast for Karachi for whole of the next week?

    regards,
    Roposh

  24. Weather is very irritating in nawabshah,because no heavy rain from last day.it rained 9mm in city only last day.other parts witnessed only drizzle,,now at that time clouds are dispersing very quickly. Fast wind is also blowing,i thnk spell has now no effect in central sindh,what do u say k.m?

  25. @Waseem : Chances of Very Heavy rain in central Sindh and Heavy rain in Coastal Sindh from tomorrow. BBC sh0wing Heavy rain/Thundery Shower till Monday in Karachi.

  26. Congrats! Nawabshah has crossed 100 mm rain in this season,till now n.shah has received 107mm,16mm in august and 91 from that spell.more is falling at that time,,first time in history light is present here in storm,

  27. @KM : Fresh Low pressure over Western coast of India likely to merge with the Low near Sindh ? Is that a green signal for more heavy rains in Sindh ? 😀

  28. Babar bhai Mirpurkhas City m 8th sep ki subha bus 15-20 minutes tak heavy rain hui us k bad poora din tip tip hoti rhi kya Mirpurkhas city m ab is spell m koi heavy rain expected hai our Mirpurkhas m kb tak mosam clear hony k chances hein???

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