Second Winter Outlook (2012 – 2013): Pakistani Winter losing power in 2013?

Outburst of rain in Karachi in December 2012
Outburst of rain in Karachi in December 2012

The winter season 2012 – 2013  started late this year with almost regular warm periods that made the people feel as if winter would not stay much longer. On December 25, 2012 Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP) asked the people about their experience of winter. 65% people voted that this winter is hotter while 34% voted that the current winter is colder than last year (2011-2012).

However on January 15, when asked the same question, 58% people voted that now the winter is now cold while 41% continued to vote that this winter is hot.

Background of this Winter

Pakistan has experienced a sudden change in winter (2012 -2013) behavior, a similar to the monsoon 2012 which was going through a collapse and then a sudden revival in the end. The thing that was different in this winter was that a severe coldwave lasted in the country from last week of December till the third week of January, this duration was quite significant as it helped winter to revive, well to start actually and it also affected the coastal and southern parts of the country. That coldwave was due to the Chinese and Siberian high pressure pushing the cold air into the country.

Winter of 2012-2013: First Outlook

Lahore hailstorm in February 2011
Lahore hailstorm in February 2011

Tokyo-based Regional Institute for Global Change (RIGC) has said that said neutral conditions are prevailing in the Pacific Ocean therefore ENSO conditions have developed in late 2012, El-Nino was expected. In Pakistan, last two winters 2010-2011 and 2011-2012 were affected by La-Nina. This is the First Winter Outlook (2012 – 2013) that was published on November 21, 2012;

“Due to the prevailing and developing atmospheric conditions across the region, the winter in coming months is likely to be near normal as a whole in terms of temperatures while it could be slightly warmer than average in south-eastern parts of the country that is south Punjab and Sindh. Cooler than average conditions could occur in north-western areas of the country during the month of January. While rainfall would be below normal in Sindh, south Punjab and lower Balochistan while normal in upper Balochistan, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and northern Punjab, it could turn into slightly above normal in January and February in the northern areas. Heavy precipitation could create isolated flash flooding in northern Balochistan in January/February” 

Second Outlook: Winters are here to stay!

The First Outlook issued by Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP) on November 21, 2012, PWP still maintains its forecast but in the second outlook some new features are being added;

“Winters would continue in the north-western and northern areas of the country till the middle or late March. But their withdrawal would be much earlier in the southern parts that could be middle or late February, winter may withdraw from middle/end of February. A significant weather system would affect much of the country with heavy downpour, bringing snowfall to the mountainous areas during the first week of February followed by a coldwave before that a heating trend will occur.”

Summers have to wait?

Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP) declared the start of winter (2012 – 2013) from November 19 as by then the cold winds had entered the coastal areas after engulfing the whole country. The arrival of summers could be delayed in the country due to extension of winter season however this is a normal pattern that occurs every five to seven years.

5 replies to “Second Winter Outlook (2012 – 2013): Pakistani Winter losing power in 2013?

  1. Appreciable. very good and detailed analysis covering all the aspects……. ur analysis are always superb and i wait for them 🙂

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