Monsoon of Pakistan

2014 Monsoon of Pakistan

Monsoon daily monthly updates

PWP_MONSOON_UPDATE_2014

Date of Issue – June 14

  • Update issued at 9:56 pm - LAST UPDATE

Yesterday’s depression ‘Nanauk’ has weakened into a well-marked low pressure. It is moving in a ENE direction towards Indian Gujarat. Due to ENE movement and weakening of the storm, passing clouds are expected in coastal and south-eastern Sindh including Karachi with slight possibility of drizzle.

Date of ssue – June 13

  • Update issued at 11:00 pm

Cyclone ‘Nanauk’ weakens into a depression

Not a significant weather system now

Cyclone Nanauk no more cyclone

Cyclone Nanauk no more cyclone

Today’s weak Cyclonic storm ‘Nanauk’ has further weakened into a depression. Satellite image shows a fully exposed weather system that is losing it’s tropical structure quickly, Depression ‘Nanauk’ is expected to weaken into a remnant low pressure in 12 to 24 hours. The weather system has moved in a N/NW direction and on June 14 it would start to move in a ENE direction towards Indian Gujarat as a remnant low pressure. Following are the current main features of the storm;

  • Winds: 30 mph to 35 mph.
  • Movement: N/NW
  • Pressure: 994 mbar

Due to the North movement of the remnants, chances of more pre-monsoon drizzle/light rain in coastal including Karachi and adjoining south-eastern Sindh as few stray thunderclouds may form over coastal Pakistan. On June 14/June 15, chances of light rain in Gwadar district.

  • Update issued at 12:30 pm

Cyclone Nanauk has weakened rapidly into a weak cyclonic storm and it lies south of Karachi at a distance of 478 km. The track has changed and it has re-curved towards the north, it would lose it’s tropical status near the coast of Pakistan in 24 hours. No threat to the Pakistan, the remnants of Nanauk may move towards Indian Gujarat. The forecast for the Pakistani coast remains same.

  • Update issued at 9:15 am

Drizzle and light rain in Karachi as predicted by PWP since many days

Cyclone Nanauk brings pre-monsoon drizzle/light rain to various parts of Karachi as predicted by PWP since last many days, it was briefly moderate heavy in Defence and adjoining areas of the city.

Date of Issue – June 12 

  • Update issued at 10:30 pm

In the continuation of the previous update, the track of cyclone ‘Nanauk’ can be seen in the above picture which shows that the direction of the storm has changed.

  • Update issued at 9:00 pm 

Nanauk to encounter dry air and high wind shear shortly

Embedded image permalink

Cyclone ‘Nanauk’ is now 598 km south of Karachi while 940 west-southwest of Mumbai and 580 km east-southeast of Masirah, Oman. Tropical cyclone did deepen to some extent as the pressure dropped to 986 mbar however the dry air along with the eastern vertical wind shear and cooler temperatures in western Arabian sea are hampering further intensification into a category-1 hurricane. On June 14/June 15, it would weaken significantly near Masirah Island, Oman as a low pressure or a depression. The threat of having a strong cyclone near Oman has been downgraded however eastern Oman may still get stormy winds along with isolated heavy rain. Following are the current main features of the storm;

  • Winds: 65 mph to 80 mph (Maintaining intensity)
  • Movement: W (Direction changed from WNW)
  • Pressure: 986 mbar (Pressure has dropped indicating slight intensification)

Under the influence of a tropical cyclone, chances are maintained at ‘high’ by PWP for the pre-monsoon drizzle/light rain in coastal including Karachi and adjoining south-eastern Sindh around June 13/14 (with -1, +3 day error) as few stray thunderclouds may form over coastal Pakistan. On June 14/June 15, chances of light rain in Gwadar district. There is no threat to the Pakistani coastline however as mentioned on June 11 10:30 pm update the vicinity of Sindh-Makran coast may become rough on June 13 and June 14.

Date of Issue – June 11

  • Update issued at 11:00 pm

As mentioned on June 10 at 2:30’s update, the cyclone would weaken significantly before moving into central areas (Masirah Island) of Oman on June 14 late/June 15 late. Currently the storm is over above 30°C sea surface temperature.

  • Update issued at 10:30 pm

The vicinity of Sindh-Makran coast may become rough on June 13 and June 14

Embedded image permalink

Cyclone ‘Nanauk’ lies south of Karachi at a distance of 818 km in the Arabian sea, 720 km west-southwest of Mumbai and 850 km east-south-east of Masirah, Oman. It is intensifying into a category-1 hurricane (74 mph to 94 mph winds). On June 14 late/June 15, it may weaken significantly before hitting central Oman as a low pressure or a depression.  Following are the main features of the storm;

  • Winds: 65 mph to 80 mph.
  • Movement: WNW
  • Pressure: 988 mbar
  • UNDER THREAT: Oman

Under the influence of a tropical cyclone, chances are maintained at ‘high’ by PWP for the pre-monsoon drizzle/light rain in coastal including Karachi and adjoining south-eastern Sindh around June 13/14 (with -1, +3 day error) as few stray thunderclouds may form over coastal Pakistan. On June 14/June 15, chances of light rain in Gwadar district. The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) has already warned their fishermen of rough sea waters in Gujarat for 24 hours.

  • Update issued at 12:30 pm

Cyclone ‘Nanauk’ has formed in the Arabian sea

First tropical cyclone in the region in 2014

Embedded image permalink

Cyclone ‘Nanauk’ is now 878 km south of Karachi while 660 km southwest of Mumbai and 990 km southeast of Masirah, Oman. It has started moving in a WNW direction towards Oman. In the next 12 to 24 hours it is expected to further intensify into a category-1 hurricane. On June 14 late/June 15, it may weaken significantly before hitting central Oman as a low pressure or a depression. Following is the current status of the storm;

  • Winds: 65 mph to 80 mph.
  • Movement: WNW
  • Pressure: 992 mbar
  • UNDER THREAT: Oman

Under the influence of a tropical cyclone, chances are maintained at ‘high’ by PWP for the pre-monsoon drizzle/light rain in coastal including Karachi and adjoining south-eastern Sindh around June 14/15 (with -2, +2 day error) as few stray thunderclouds may form over coastal Pakistan. On June 14/June 15, chances of light rain in Gwadar district.

Date of Issue – June 10

  • Update issued at 11:00 pm

Tropical depression ARB 01 (Tropical storm 01A) is now 940 km south of Karachi while 620 km south-west of Mumbai. It continues to move in a NNW direction. The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) may finally give it a name ‘Nanauk’ by tomorrow as the depression may attain cyclonic storm status on the IMD scale. On June 11 night/June 12 it may intensify further into a category-1 hurricane (SSHS Scale) and it may move in a WNW/W direction towards the Oman coast. On June 14 late/June 15, it may weaken significantly before hitting central Oman as a low pressure or a depression. Another possibility is that the storm may continue to move in a NNW direction. Following is the current status of the storm;

  • Winds: 45 mph gusting to 60 mph
  • Movement: NNW

Under the influence of a tropical cyclone, chances are maintained at ‘high’ by PWP for the pre-monsoon drizzle/light rain in coastal including Karachi and adjoining south-eastern Sindh around June 14/15 (with -2, +2 day error) as few stray thunderclouds may form over coastal Pakistan.

  • Update issued at 6:30 pm

Tropical storm is 610 km south-west from Mumbai while 1024 km south of Karachi and 1160 km south-east of Masirah, Oman.

  • Update issued at 5:30 pm

Tropical storm is 1024 km south of Karachi and has moved in a NNW direction. Due to this storm and lack of western systems the temperatures would remain high across the country, some areas might experience very high temperatures during the weekend. Chances maintained at ‘high’ for pre-monsoon drizzle/light rain in coastal including Karachi and adjoining south-eastern Sindh around June 14/15 (with -2, +2 day error).

Chances maintained at ‘poor’ for the pre-monsoon activity in northern areas and adjoining central areas of Pakistan around June 18 (+1,-1 day error), a western disturbance is expected during that time period.

  • Update issued at 2:30 pm

Tropical cyclone ‘Nanauk’ formation Alert

Sea may become rough in the vicinity of Sindh coast 

Tropical depression in the Arabian sea

Tropical depression in the Arabian sea

Cyclone ‘Nanauk’ is forming in the Arabian sea, currently a tropical depression. It may intensify into a category-1 hurricane and move towards Oman. No threat to Pakistan. The cyclone may weaken significantly before hitting Oman on June 14 late/June 15 late. Due to the expected cyclone, chances upgraded at ‘high’ for pre-monsoon drizzle/light rain in eastern coastal including Karachi and adjoining south-eastern Sindh around June 14/15 (with -2, +2 day error).

Chances upgraded at ‘poor’ for the pre-monsoon activity in northern areas and adjoining central areas of Pakistan around June 18 (+1,-1 day error), a western disturbance is expected during that time period.

  • Update issued at 3:00 pm

As per the U.S Navy’s JTWC, the tropical depression has winds up to 40 mph with pressure at 996 mbar. It is expected to move in a westerly track.

Date of Issue – June 7

Possible tropical cyclone formation in the Arabian sea in coming days

Arabian sea system may move towards Arabian Peninsula 

 A low pressure is likely to form over eastern Arabian sea near Kerala coast in 24/36 hours that might be monitored for possible intensification into a tropical cyclone in the coming days, no threat to the Pakistani coast as of now. The weather system might drift towards Oman and adjoining Yemen. Chances maintained at ‘moderate’ for pre-monsoon drizzle/light rain in eastern coastal and adjoining south-eastern Sindh around June 15 (With -3,+2 day error). Chances remain at ‘very poor’ for the pre-monsoon activity in northern areas and adjoining central areas of Pakistan around June 18 (+1,-1 day error), a western disturbance is expected during that time period.

Date of Issue – June 6

Monsoon hits Kerala !

Possible tropical cyclone formation in the Arabian sea in coming days

 A low pressure is likely to form over eastern Arabian sea near Kerala coast in 48 hours that might be monitored for possible intensification into a tropical cyclone in the coming days, no threat to the Pakistani coast as of now. Chances maintained at ‘moderate’ for pre-monsoon drizzle/light rain in eastern coastal and adjoining south-eastern Sindh around June 15 (With -3,+2 day error). Chances remain at ‘very poor’ for the pre-monsoon activity in northern areas and adjoining central areas of Pakistan around June 18 (+1,-1 day error), a western disturbance is expected during that time period.

Date of Issue – June 5

Monsoon may hit Kerala in 12 to 24 hours!

 A low pressure might develop over lower eastern Arabian sea near Kerala coast on June 9/June 10 that might be monitored for further intensification. Chances upgraded from ‘poor’ to ‘moderate’ for pre-monsoon drizzle/light rain in eastern coastal and adjoining south-eastern Sindh after June 15 (With +3 day error). Chances remain at ‘very poor’ for the pre-monsoon activity in northern areas and adjoining central areas of Pakistan around June 18 (+1,-1 day error), a western disturbance is expected during that time period.

Date of Issue – June 4

Monsoon may hit Kerala tomorrow.

 A low pressure might develop around second week (middle of that week) of June over lower eastern Arabian sea near Kerala coast that might be monitored for further intensification. Chances are at ‘poor’ for pre-monsoon drizzle/light rain in eastern coastal and adjoining south-eastern Sindh after June 15 (With +3 day error), they might be upgraded. Chances are at ‘very poor’ for the pre-monsoon activity in northern areas and adjoining central areas of Pakistan around June 18 (+1,-1 day error), a western disturbance is expected during that time period.

Date of Issue – June 3

Monsoon may hit Kerala on June5.

Possibility of pre-monsoon activity during second last week of June in north-eastern and lower Pakistan. A low pressure might develop around second week of June over lower eastern Arabian sea near Kerala coast that might be monitored for further intensification.

Date of Issue – June 2

Monsoon misses June 2 in Kerala, new arrival date is June 5.

Possibility of pre-monsoon activity during second last week of June in north-eastern and lower Pakistan. A low pressure might develop around second week of June over lower eastern Arabian sea near Kerala coast that might be monitored for further intensification.

Date of Issue – June 1

Possibility of pre-monsoon activity during second last week of June in north-eastern and lower Pakistan. A low pressure might develop later this week or second week of June over lower eastern Arabian sea near Kerala coast that might be monitored for further intensification.

Monsoon Special articles for 2014

You can read special monsoon article by Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP), here;

2013 Monsoon of Pakistan

Monsoon daily monthly updates

monsoon-2013-pwp

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Monsoon Special articles for 2013

You can read special monsoon article by Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP), here;

2012 Monsoon of Pakistan

Monsoon daily monthly updates

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Monsoon Special articles for 2012

You can read special monsoon article by Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP), here;

2011 Monsoon of Pakistan 

Monsoon daily monthly updates

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Monsoon Special articles for 2011

You can read special monsoon article by Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP), here;

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History of Climate of Pakistan

The monsoon and the Western Disturbance are the two main factors which alter the weather over Pakistan; otherwise, Continental air prevails for rest of the year. Following are the main factors that influence the weather over Pakistan.

  • Western Disturbances mostly occur during the winter months and cause light to moderate showers in southern parts of the country while moderate to heavy showers with heavy snowfall in the northern parts of the country. These westerly waves are robbed of most of the moisture by the time they reach Pakistan.
  • Fog occurs during the winter season and remains for weeks in upper Sindh, central Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Punjab.
  • Southwest Monsoon occurs in summer from the month of June till September in whole Pakistan excluding western Balochistan, FATA, Chitral and Gilgit-Baltistan. Monsoon rains bring much awaited relief from the scorching summer heat. These monsoon rains are quite heavy by nature and can cause significant flooding, even severe flooding if they interact with westerly waves in the upper parts of the country.
  • Cyclones in Pakistan usually form during the summer months from late April till June and then from late September till November. They affect the coastal localities of the country.
  • Dust storms occur during summer months with peak in May and June, They are locally known as Andhi. These dust storms are quite violent. Dust storms during the early summer indicates the arrival of the monsoons while dust storms in the autumn indicate the arrival of winter.
  • Heat waves occur during May and June, especially in southern Punjab, central Balochistan and interior Sindh.
  • Continental air prevails during the period when there is no precipitation in the country.
  • Drought in Pakistan is an on and off phenomenon in the country.
  • Tsunami are rare, but this tsunami is the deadliest one yet.
  • Floods in Pakistan occur every year during monsoon season thousand people die in Pakistan as well as South Asia due to the massive floods.
  • Earthquakes in Pakistan  are the deadliest form of disaster in the country.
  • Worst Natural Disasters of Pakistan is the list of all the disasters in the country.

Climate of Karachi

Monsoon precipitation in Karachi

The average annual rainfall for Karachi is 200 millimetres (7.9 in); the highest annual rainfall of 713 millimetres (28.1 in) was recorded in 1967. Annual monsoon rains for Karachi amount to 146.5 millimetres (5.77 in). The city experienced above-normal monsoon rainfalls in 2003, 2006, 2007, 2009 and 2010, while in 2004 and 2005 the city received below-normal rainfall. In 2009 the country received 30% below normal rainfall with the exception of Sindh, including Karachi, which received above normal monsoon rains. Karachi has seen record-breaking rainfalls during monsoon season since 2003 with the exception of 2004 and 2005. Following is a data from Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP)

Monsoon precipitation in Karachi
Monsoon begins from June till September
Precipitation
Year (mm) (in) Conditions
2000 0.1 mm 0 inches Drought
2001 63.1 mm 2.41 inches Drought
2002 123.1 mm 4.84 inches Drought
2003 355.2 mm 13.98 inches La-Nina
2004 35 mm 1.37 inches Drought
2005 80.6 mm 3.17  inches Drought
2006 236.7 mm 9.32 inches La-Nina
2007 421 mm 16.6 inches +IOD
2008 91.5 mm 3.60 inches Neutral
2009 370 mm 14.5 inches El-Nino
2010 415.7 mm 16.3 inches La-Nina
2011 281.0 mm 11.0 inches La-Nina
2012 136 mm 5.3 inches Late +IOD
2013 179.1 mm 3.94 inches Possible -IOD

Climate of Islamabad

Monsoon precipitation in Islamabad

The average monsoon rainfall of Islamabad is 790.8 millimetres (31.13 in). Monsoon season starts by the end of June and prevails till the end of September. In 2009, Islamabad saw below normal monsoon rainfalls due to the presence of El-Nino over Pakistan. The highest rainfall of 620 millimetres (24 in) was recorded in Islamabad during 24 hours on 24 July 2001. The record breaking rain fell in just 10 hours. It was the heaviest rainfall in Islamabad in the past 100 years. The following is the Monsoon rainfall in Islamabad since 2005 based on the data from Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP);

Monsoon precipitation in Islamabad
Monsoon begins from June till September
Precipitation
Year (mm) (in) Conditions
2005 1,112 mm 43.7 inches Neutral
2006 962 mm 37.9 inches La-Nina
2007 1,117 mm 44.0 inches +IOD
2008 1,108 mm 43.6 inches Neutral
2009 354 mm 13.9 inches El-Nino
2010 1,171 mm 46.1 inches La-Nina
2011 1,245 mm 49 inches La-Nina
2012 1,007 mm 39.1 inches Late +IOD
2013 1,762.3 mm 69.38 inches Possible -IOD

Climate of Lahore 

  • Climate of Lahore – The monthly factors!

Monsoon precipitation in Lahore

The average monsoon rainfall of Lahore is 470.1 millimetres (18.51 in). The monsoon rains commence from the last week of June and persist till the end of September. In 2009, Lahore saw below normal monsoon rainfalls due to the presence of El-Nino over Pakistan. Lahore mainly receives its rainfall during the Monsoon season from June till September, and in winter season from western disturbance in December till February. The highest ever annual rainfall in Lahore was recorded in 1955 when 1,317.5 millimetres (51.87 in) of rainfall was recorded. Lahore received below normal rains in 2009, and normal rains in 2007 and 2010. The following is the Monsoon rainfall data in Lahore since 2003 based on data from Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP);

Monsoon precipitation in Lahore
Monsoon begins from June till September
Precipitation
Year (mm) (in) Conditions
2003 337 mm 14.8 inches La-Nina
2004 NA NA Neutral
2005 426 mm 16.8 inches Neutral
2006 606 mm 23.9 inches La-Nina
2007 531 mm 20.9 inches +IOD
2008 800 mm 31 inches Neutral
2009 318 mm 12.5 inches El-Nino
2010 711 mm 28 inches La-Nina
2011 670 mm 26 inches La-Nina
2012 512.3 mm 20.1 inches Late +IOD
2013 1,155.5 mm 45.4 inches Possible -IOD

Climate of Hyderabad

  • Climate of Hyderabad – The monthly factors!

Monsoon precipitation in Hyderabad

The average annual rainfall (January to December) for Hyderabad is 136.1 millimetres (5.36 in). The highest annual rainfall was 455 millimetres (17.9 in), recorded in 2006. The average monsoon rainfall for Hyderabad is 100 millimetres (3.9 in). Following is the annual monsoon rainfall (June till September) since 2008. The following is the annual monsoon rainfall for the last few years based on data from Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP);

Monsoon precipitation in Hyderabad
Monsoon begins from June till September
Precipitation
Year (mm) (in) Conditions
2003 286 mm 11.3 inches La-Nina
2004 NA NA -
2005 29 mm 1.1 inches -
2006 455 mm 17.9 inches La-Nina
2007 NA NA +IOD
2008 115 mm 4.5 inches -
2009 209 mm 8.2 inches El-Nino
2010 213 mm 8.4 inches La-Nina
2011 408 mm 16.06 inches La-Nina
2012 126 mm 4.9 inches late +IODa
2013 95.7 mm 3.7 inches Possible -IOD
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