Road map for ‘Monsoonistan’ laid: Rains move into Pakistan!

“This is the sixth article related to the monsoon season of 2013 and the last one of the year”

‘Monsoon remains strong despite threats?’

Monsoon

Monsoon surrounds the Capital city Islamabad

Pakistan is lashed by rains mainly from July to September from the South-west monsoon. The monsoon reaches Pakistan towards the beginning of July and establishes itself by the middle of the month. The strength of the monsoon current increases from mid or late July; it then remains steady, and starts retreating towards the end of August, though occasionally, it continues to be active even in September. After September the monsoon withdraws from the country. But tropical activity could occur before and after the monsoon, mainly in May till June and then in September till November. Certain events like El-Nino, La-Nina, Positive Indian ocean Dipole, Negative Indian ocean Dipole, Madden-Julian oscillation, the position of Jet Streams etc have an effect on the monsoon season.


Farmers of Sub-continent depend heavily on the monsoon season for its agricultural and water needs. A deficient monsoon has a negative impact on the economy of Pakistan and India as most crops depend upon this rainy season though each other more than hundred people die due to this weather phenomenon.

Past Monsoon over Pakistan

  • 2009 Monsoon
Karachi witnessed freak rain in July

Karachi witnessed near record-breaking rain in July

During this year most of Pakistan was going through El-Nino that caused 30% below normal rainfall. Coastal and adjoining South-eastern parts of the Sindh province experienced above normal rainfall. Following are the important features of the 2009 monsoon season;

  1. First proper rain in the country experienced on July 18 in the southern parts, isolated activity was observed in the northern areas.
  2. The Monsoon’s performance was severely affected El-Nino.
  3. 205 mm rain fell in Karachi on July 18 in 24 hours.
  • 2010 Monsoon
2010 floods approaching

2010 floods approaching

In 2010, Pakistan saw its worst flooding in its living memory. Very heavy to extremely heavy rainfall was observed especially in some parts of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and northern Punjab. A subtropical Jet Stream was too south than it’s normal position over the northern areas as it trapped the rains over upper parts of the country. Following are the important features of the 2010 monsoon season;

  1. Pre-monsoon season witnessed tropical cyclone ‘Phet’ in the coastal areas.
  2. The Monsoon’s performance was enhanced by La-Nina.
  3. 415 mm rain fell in Risalpur, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa during the period of July 27 till July 30.
  4. Extremely heavy rains unleashed massive flash floods that started from the northern areas and moved towards the southern areas that killed more than 1,700 people.
  • 2011 Monsoon
Army helping the affected people

Sindh sub-merged under rainwater

Monsoon’s performance was normal to moderately above normal in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Punjab however it was extremely above normal in the Sindh province. Following are the important features of the 2011 monsoon season;

  1. Heaviest rainfall was recorded in Sindh province especially eastern parts which exceeded historical records in August and September.
  2. 1348 mm rain was observed in Mithi from August till September while the average is more than 100 mm.
  3. Late La-Nina conditions were observed in the Pacific Ocean that ended in April 2012.
  4. The flooding was responsible for the deaths of 430 people in Sindh.
  • 2012 Monsoon
Streets flooded due to mid-night rain

Streets flooded due to mid-night rain in Sialkot

Mostly normal monsoon rains were witnessed in the northern areas of the country while below normal rains occurred in the extreme southern areas of the country. Post-Monsoon season was highly above normal in the upper areas of Sindh province. Following are the main features of the 2012 monsoon season;

  1. Probably the first major rain of 2012 monsoon fell in Sialkot, Sialkot (NE Punjab) was soaked by heavy rain in just 7 hours on July 26 as 128 mm rain fell.
  2. Late Positive Indian ocean dipole was observed during the last weeks of monsoon.
  3. 441 mm rain fell on September 9 in just 36 hours in Jacobababad, Upper Sindh, a 100 year old record was broken in the city. It was a post-monsoon event.

Performance of current Monsoon

In the month of June, rains were mostly normal to slight above normal in parts of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Punjab while normal to below normal in the southern areas;

  • 2013 Monsoon

Following are the main features of the 2013 monsoon season;

  1. very active pre-monsoon was observed, Lahore got 102 mm rain on late June 14.
  2. Islamabad got 105 mm rain between July 6 and July 7.
  3. Negative Indian Ocean Dipole can have an effect on the monsoon season in middle of the season.
  4. Neutral ENSO conditions are observed till now, with possibility of weak La-Nina later in the season.
  5. Pre-monsoon activity started from June 11, gained peak on June 13 and ended on July 16 night.
  6. The first monsoon spell started from June 27 though the isolated activity had started since June 25, the spell lasted till July 1.
  7. The second monsoon spell started from July 6 though the isolated activity started from early July 5.
  8. The third monsoon spell can start during the mid-week of July in some parts of the country including Karachi.

When will Monsoon start over Karachi?

Karachi's thunderstorm in August 2006

Karachi’s thunderstorm in August 2006

The monsoon generally reaches Pakistan during the first week of July while Karachi gets hit by monsoon during the second week or mid-week of July (July 15). Following are the dates of first proper rains during the monsoon season in Karachi during the last few years;

  • On October 3, 2004 – The city experienced drought-like conditions, the first proper rain occurred due to Cyclone Onil that was about 35 mm.
  • On September 10 and September 11, 2005 –   80 mm rain fell in a long spell of much-awaited rains. Before the rain, drought-like conditions were observed in Karachi during the monsoon.
  • On July 30, 2006 –  22 mm was recorded however on August 17, 56 mm rain was recorded which was the first torrential rain after 2003.
  • On June 21, 2007 – About 40 mm (unconfirmed) rain was recorded while on June 23 a strong windstorm (111 km/h) followed by rain (17 mm), rains continued till June 25 due to Cyclone Yemyin. On June 30, 43/45 mm rain fell with strong gusty winds. On August 10 and August 11, 191 mm rain was recorded in Karachi. On August 22, 81 mm rain was recorded in the metropolis.
  • On July 29, 2008 – Proper monsoon rains started from July 29 as 50 mm rain was recorded.
  • On July 18, 2009 – 205 mm rain fell in the metropolis in just 24 hours. On August 31, 147 mm rain was recorded in the city.
  • On June 6 and June 7, 2010 –  Karachi got 152 mm rain due to Cyclone Phet.  The city experienced an active monsoon season from the first week of July till second week of September.
  • On September 11 and September 12, 2011 – The first proper monsoon rain occurred on September 11 till September 12, a total of 140 mm rain was recorded in the city, it was the part of the ongoing flooding rain in Sindh. On July 26, 7 mm rain was recorded, rains also occurred in August.
  • On September 5 and September 6, 2012 – The city was experiencing drought-like conditions however on those days 41 mm and 65 mm rain fell respectively.
  • On June 13, 2013 – 22 mm rain was recorded in Karachi.

Active rains bring floods India – Rivers flowing high in Pakistan!

Floodwaters engulf India

Floodwaters engulf India

Early monsoon rains have brought devastating floods in India as the rains were  375% above normal in Uttarakhand state of India while heaviest in 22 years. It is common to see eastern and western weather fronts colliding with each other during the monsoon season that causes cloudburst in some case. Such pattern was responsible for the Indian floods where already the rivers were flowing at high level.

Normally a strong winter season means a weaker summer but the summer of 2013 was little different, high temperatures on a wide scale were observed in Pakistan and adjoining India that continued even in June. The above situation has caused the thick snow cover over the northern areas of both the country to melt at a faster rate thus increasing the river flow. Even before the rains in June in Pakistan, the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province witnessed mild river floods that sub-merged nearby houses and buildings, 16 people lost their lives in the province due to rapid increase in river flow.

Is Monsoon tackling all odds? 

Warm eastern waters while cool western waters

Warm eastern waters while cool western waters

As compared to last year in which there was a fear of ‘total collapse’ of monsoon (Repeat of 2009’s monsoon), this year the threat of deficient rains is minimum as compared to last year. The only obstacle in the way of this year’s monsoon remains the negative Indian ocean dipole which can develop during the middle of the monsoon season which can cause decrease in rain activity from mid-week of July till August, a common fear shared by the American, Australian, Japanese and south Korean Weather Agencies.

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has said that neutral conditions would prevail in the Pacific ocean however the above weather agencies have said that there is a 65% probability of formation of La-Nina later in the season which will decrease the effects of negative Indian ocean dipole in the month of September, this can only happen if both of these phenomenons form on their expected time.

Our View on the upcoming season

Rain from July till September - Image from PMD

Rain from July till September – Image from PMD

Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP)’s monsoon forecast that was issued on May 6 and was revised on June 6, following is the forecast of PWP;

“Monsoon 2013 would set in early this year in India due to the formation of a low pressures in Bay of Bengal, Monsoon will be very active in the month of June as there is a possibility of pre-monsoon in Sindh and Punjab, moderate to heavy downpour can occur in Punjab (including Lahore) and Sindh (including Karachi) during the late midweek and last week of June due to the weak Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) wave. Eastern & western winds interaction possible during this period of June and later in the season in upper areas of Pakistan which could lead to heavy rainfall over Khyber Pakhtunkhwa as well. Monsoon onset in Pakistan can take place in the last weeks of June/first week of July especially in the northern areas of the country. Pakistan can experience near to normal rainfall in June till early July on the wider-scale while normal to below normal rainfall after mid-week of July till August as a whole. North-eastern Punjab and Azad Kashmir can witness some frequent heavy downpour in the month of July. Due to the high possibility of the formation of negative Indian ocean Dipole, rain activity could be significantly hampered from mid-week of July and August, a partial effect of weak La-Nina might be observable later in the monsoon season (which could  weaken the effect of -IOD in September). However an event of isolated flash flooding/urban flooding (happens every year) can never be ruled out.”

Monsoon Special articles for 2013

You can read special monsoon article by Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP), here;

 

287 thoughts on “Road map for ‘Monsoonistan’ laid: Rains move into Pakistan!

    • We are trending towards negative -IOD as per the latest SST image and it could be developed till August therefore used the word ‘peak’ though now changed it to avoid confusion.

  1. Thank you for the informative article. We appreciate it.
    So after this second spell ends, there is a 50/50 chance for more monsoon rain in North Western Punjab?? I have a feeling that this year Ramdhan will be dry as well. 😦

    • Welcome HKhan.
      After the second spell ends, the third spell can start (mentioned in the article).
      Upper areas of Punjab should not be worried for long dry spells 🙂

      • Well if La-Nina does come back then we might see rains/improvement in monsoon condition as we have been witnessing since 2010, 2011 and 2012 September.

      • Babar Bhai what about khyber Pakhtunkhwa in Ramadan,? Will Khyber pakhtunkhwa will be facing dry spells in Ramadan?

    • The charts of few models (CGCM) that I have observed show improvement in the rains in September that they could be near normal. The average rain for Karachi and Hyderabad is 22 mm and 19 mm respectively in September.

    • Some chances of rain in middle week of July. During the next few days chances of drizzle/isolated showers in RY Khan, Bahawalpur, Bahawalnagar district.

  2. AoA,
    Why not we should plan a suicide attack on these peopels i.e. El-Nina, La Nina, IOD etc. Ye bhi Al-Qida ka koi chakkar maloom hote hen….ya phir as usual YAHODION ki koi planning ho gi….so ‘Qadam barhao Babar, Hum tumhare sath hen’…. 😛 😛

  3. I believe Babar, sirf aik Cyclone in Arabian sea could changed your each and every calculations/predictions as you people certainly cant predict when any low pressure could turned into a cyclone…:)

    • If a low does form, dont expect to become a cyclone overnight 😛
      When there will be tropical low you would know that it has some chances of developing into a depression/cyclone. Tarim is right, cyclones do not form in the monsoon season especially Arabian sea.

  4. Thank you Tarim, agreed but cyclones are un predictable too. Also, i used to check weather.yahoo.com every once in a while and found that most of their predictions regarding KHI is 99.9% accurate.

  5. Thank you for the informative article.I appreciate it.
    Sir can you tell me what will happen in Islamabad and Khaur.Any sign of heavy to very heavy rainfall.

  6. admin aik baat bataye sab loog mid week of july se karachi main rain start honay ka kah rahe hai lekhen ager yeh -iod active hogaya to phir kaisay karachi main rain hogi? kyun k -iod se toh august tak southern pakistan main rain k chances kam ho jaigay to phir to karachi main rain nahi ho sakaygi?

    • I will give you the example of 2009 Monsoon which was an El-Nino year. It was the worst monsoon in India in years despite being a bad monsoon, it did advance into Kerala early that is May 23 (early since 2005). The Monsoon did enter all the monsoon parts of Pakistan though its coverage and intensity was weaker than a normal monsoon. Some parts also got above normal rains (Karachi and coastal areas of Sindh). So Monsoon rains can occur but if -IOD does form then the coverage and intensity of monsoon could be affected.

  7. Well, this forecast of 21st will also change from heavy rain into dry weather eventually, just like always.

  8. Hi Karachites

    Don’t look for monsoon rain predictions for KHI in any website..You will always disappoint.

    Stop watching the north side and wailt till the November with the hope of good rainy winter season as last year lasting till April. The good amount of rains fell from Nov to Apr without any hassle like -IOD, Dust Cloud lonh wait for formation of low pressure area and when time comes its dissipate or change its direction. KHI has a long history of dry monsoon seasons except for few good years. (1994 my favorite)

    Ahsan

  9. Babar, what happened to the thunder cloud/low that was moving towards ISB/LHR this morning and now suddenly backing off. Also have seen thunder clouds in central India. Are these clouds moving towards SIndh?

    • A western low is over the northern areas of the country, those thunderclouds are moving eastwards. A weak UAC is over Rajasthan and adjoining areas. Those thunderclouds over central India for last few days have been moving in a WSW/SW direction though they weaken by the time they enter Sindh.

  10. BREAKING NEWs———Finally a CYCLONE Has bee Formed——–
    Tarim / Babar, please hurry up and inform all the members immediately.

  11. BUT
    in south China Sea… 😛 😛 😛 😛
    this was the laughter therapy 4 all those who are desperately hoping rain in KHI 😦 😦 😦

  12. Zabrdast article because one article is covering 5 monsoon season including 2013..
    But unfortunately nothing for sindh in july

  13. Karachi’s day temperature is lower than that of Islamabad and Lahore is that because of the sea?? I think the heat must be tolerable there even without rain unlike how hot it gets in ISB and surrounding areas during summer and with no rain during whole summer, like the year 2012 in our area, the temperatures here get unbearable.
    This summer is a relief though, I hope we keep getting these rains even if after a week or so..

    • Exactly thats due to the Sea breeze, the weather of Karachi is quite pleasant during the monsoon season. The evening/mornings can be cloudy with occasional drizzle. The good part of Islamabad/Lahore is that after bearing high temperature they get heavy showers with gusty winds.

    • You people get rains almost daily in the monsoon season and also in the winter season, what more do you want ?

      • I wouldn’t mind no rain in summer if the temperature is like that of Karachi and also, if water supply for households doesn’t run out like it does in our village. We had no water last summer because of lousy monsoon.

        BTW, who asked for anything more?? I am just saying, I hear Karachi people complaining all the time about rain but I still think they are bit lucky with lower temperatures than ours with those sea breezes..

      • This is what started it..

        You sound like you are accusing us of getting more rains than Karachi.. lol, like it is our fault you do not get enough rains.

        Btw, all my posts are directed at PWP owner, and to no one else. Thank you.

  14. Dear Tarim,rain is not always attractive weather. You may confirm this from people of Bangladesh 🙂
    Bro Babar, how do u rate start of monsoon this year so far?

    • People want to see a kind of weather that they don’t always see.
      It’s always raining in Bangladesh. So, Yeah !

    • Taking about June;
      Well northern Punjab and few parts of KPK have witnessed above average rains, other areas have witnessed near normal to below normal. Few parts of Upper Sindh witnessed above average rain. Somewhat near normal in Azad Kashmir. Pre-monsoon was active (as we saw rains stretching from north till southwards).
      Taking about July;
      Good start to monsoon rain again in northern Punjab and few parts of KPK. South Punjab and Sindh is dry with spotty activity, usually their time come after second/mid-week of July.

    • You are so stingy, what wrong?? Not a very attractive attitude, I prefer the humble personalities like Babar bhai. He is very helpful and positive. God bless him.

      • And what about you ? You get so much rain but still unthankful, sad.
        We’re thankful for the temperatures in Karachi. Karachi also had temperatures from 38-42 during the heatwave similar to Punjab but you people get rains from which temperature reaches 25-30.
        You talk about my attitude, have you seen yours ?

      • Yes Babar bhai has humble personality but he has a page to run. So, he has to maintain his fan base 😀

  15. @ Tarim,
    We do not get rains daily, we have to wait a week with soaring temperatures for another spell of monsoon to start and that too, we get only half an hour rain here on a night with average intensity, and if the spell is to last 4 days, then we r lucky to get 3 nights/days of rain..usually comes at night time here. Must be better in Islamabad but I live in a village called Jalalia which is near Attock city.

  16. Temperatures reach 40C in Karachi in summer, we get a relief from this temperature in the monsoon season with near normal rainfall. You should be thankful instead of criticizing me.

  17. Dear Tarim & HKhan, as recommended by Babar ‘The Cyclone’ please dont argue with each other instead lets take it more friendly and in a positive manner. Tarim, In my opinion, we Karachiits are more blessed than other people of the country considering the intensity of weather, Electricity loud shedding etc etc.No doubt barshen kam hoti hen but itni bhi nahi k hum enjoy na kar sarken but haan ye zaroor hai k hamara number thora peeche hai….but no worries as we will definitely get the double blessings of Allah soon i.e. Ramadan & Rain….:)

  18. I wasn’t complaining, I was just trying to boost the morale of Karachians by telling them they are blessed as well.

    @Tarim, it’s uncool to pick fights with ladies..

    I apologize everyone. Sorry, let’s move on..

  19. Well, GFS is still showing heavy rains in Sindh including Karachi from 21st.
    They’re showing no rains this week though. It’s because of that strong dust cloud over SIndh.

  20. PWP, accuweather is forecasting no rain for tonight in Jalalia and sorrounding areas, do you think they are right about that?

    • The chances of rain/showers persists till July 10, fresh thunderclouds can form during late night/early morning. Late night thunderstorm is now dissipating over NE Punjab. I believe some rain might have occurred in Jalalia?

      • Yes it did occur early morning hours. Have been getting some every night since second spell started.
        Hmmm will have to wait and watch what happens.

      • Babar bhai Risalpur received heavy rain with strong winds last night. is there more chances of Rain. and the other thing is that most rains of monsoon in risalpur occur durind night time. i remeber only 2004 in which most rains occur during afternoon or daytime. Whats the reason behind that?

      • Good to know.
        One of the reason could be, these thunderclouds start forming in the mid-day/evening and cause rain at night and starts dissipating in the morning. During the day the sun causes the process of evaporation. Warm air starts absorbing moisture during the day and at night the air becomes cooler due to decrease in temp and it cannot hold moisture and thus its start releasing moisture in the form of rain.

  21. @Hkhan :

    Just look at your own attitude. I never accused you of anything I just said that you should be grateful for the high amount of precipitation you get throughout the year instead of criticizing. Like Babar bhai said, “Every part of Pakistan’s weather is good in it’s own way”. We have mild temperatures, you have high amount of precipitation. I think this is fair enough don’t you think ?

    • You very first reply to my question was or post which was not even directed at you but only the the owner of this site..

      your post.. “You people get rains almost daily in the monsoon season and also in the winter season, what more do you want ?”

      Don’t you feel the tone is harsh?? And my post wasn’t even directed at you..
      You sound like a angry, sarcastic, and over confident person.
      Shut up already.

      • I was trying to put something in your empty brain that despite hot weather you people get good rains year that give you a relief.

        There was no name of the admin in the question so how would I have known who were you referring the question to ?

        Anyways, sorry for the mess.

  22. Where does this palace ‘Jalalia’ is beign situated? Naam se lagta hai is city k sab loug her waqt Jalaal men rehte hon gay…perhaps… 😛

    • Bay’s UAC persists. GFS showing westward movement while another version showing NW movement then moving towards central India.

  23. Dear Tarim & Khan Sb, pls agar aap dono aik dosre ko avoid kar len tou sab k liye behter ho ga coz ab jo words exchange hona shoru ho gaye hen wo thaeek nahi…..is liye pls stop blaming eachother and stay blessed and happy.

  24. Dear Babar & All, Ramazan Greetings!

    Barbar, PMD par BOB ka satellite imgae dekh kar feel ho raha hai UAC/low has further intesified….pls check and update.

  25. I still dont understnad the term ‘dust cloud’ means ppllution or something else? am really looking forwad to these dense clouds…iam dying to see that. :P….thanks God they are finally coming…. 🙂

  26. PWP, Second spell started after I think 4-5 days from end of first spell..is the 3rd spell going to start the same way?

      • @Tarim wrote “You’re so pathetic and stupid.”

        Thank you. I apologize once again, and Ramadhan Mubarak. May Allah bless you and your family abundantly with all that is good in this world and hereafter.

  27. Babar, why the third spell will be shared with notheren parts pats of the country? I mean like first or second spell sindh se share kiyo nahi hua…. :(….similarly third spell ki direction agar southern parts ki traf hai tou phir how would that affect the uppar parts? i mean sirf aur sirf sindh ya adjoining balochistan ko affect hona chahiyye 😦

    • Its not necessary, upper areas have more fruitful conditions for rain, for instant circulations can form near it while the moist western low play a major rain in pulling all the moisture towards itself. The first and second spell were the cause of the western winds as well as monsoon moisture.

  28. South China sea men jo Cyclone ghoom raha tha wo ghoom ghoom kar Malang ban gaya hai aur apni mout aaap mar raha hai…. 😛

  29. another thing, is south china cyclone ki waja se hamare moon soon par tou koi farq nahi pare ga coz agar ye cyclone strong hai tou sara moisture kha jaye ga?

      • @Tarim wrote “You’re so pathetic and stupid.”

        Thank you. I apologize once again, and Ramadhan Mubarak. May Allah bless you and your family abundantly with all that is good in this world and hereafter.

  30. @Hkhan Amazing how people only publicize Mistakes or bad deeds of people.

    @Tarim also wrote “I take back every offensive work I said.”.

  31. Dear Tarim & MS.Hkhan, many congratulation on your peace accord….eventually but ye sab Ramzan ki barkat se hua hai coz sare shaitaan aur Shaitaniyan Qaid kar diye jaate hen 😛 😛 😛

  32. Hurrah!!! the dust cloud has gone from sindh…..
    Dear Babar / Tarim, pls comment, will that encourage moonsoon clouds to reach sindh with proper intensity?

    • If the “recurve” was not about to happen then it may have moved towards the country but overall the low has revived the monsoon activity and again we are witnessing clouds crossing south Punjab and Sindh from India. Tomorrow I might decrease the spell chances in central and southern areas. The 3rd spell in the north can be less in intensity than the 2nd spell.

      • The clouds over SE Sindh are bringing good cloudcover to Sindh. They can bring drizzle/isolated shower with thunder/lightning to some parts of SE Sindh.

  33. Dear Both, yes GFS trolling with both of you and both of you trolling with whole pakistan ;(….disappointing…. ;(

  34. Also, stop visiting and tellings inaccurate predictions of GFS to all other poeple instead do visit weather.yahoo.com which amzingly predict accurately. Yahoo weather has showing 20% chance of rain on 14th July and 60% chances of reain of 21st July….which means k 21st bhi doubtful hai…..is liye matti pao… 😦

    • Yes I did as yesterday it seemed that once the low starts to weaken and moves NNE wards. The cloud mass may spread over the western parts of India and not advance further eastwards but today we saw that due to the circulation, clouds are more active in the south-western parts of India and are moving eastwards.

    • low level SW winds have weakened, at the moment few SW clouds are forming in Karachi while high clouds are continuously coming from India.

  35. @KM :

    Stratocumulus clouds started covering the sky at 6:30. at 7, SW clouds covered the sky so I was unable to see the stratocumulus clouds.
    Light rain started at 8:30.

    • Looking at the NRL Images, Dust cloud appears to have weakened. Low is over central India while the circulation is seen moving towards Sindh, as it moves it is weakening. Light intensity rain has occurred in parts of Sindh yesterday.

  36. Karachi received torrential rains from the last week of august in 2011. Dust cloud was weakened during that time.

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